Preview: Wales v Italy

The opening game of the final day of the Six Nations brings together two teams feeling disappointed and most likely thoroughly tired.

The opening game of the final day of the Six Nations brings together two teams feeling disappointed and most likely thoroughly tired.

In past years you'd have put your shirt on a big Welsh win – assuming they had put out a full-strength team – but Italy seem to have a habit of making things awkward for the Welsh, the last thing Wales players want from any match at the moment.

They say that players who went on a Lions tour often struggle the season after. Rarely can a more accurate summation have been made than of the Welsh Lions – those who have remained fit anyway.

Jamie Roberts has been unable to bust the lines in the way he did in South Africa and Lee Byrne has been dropping high balls, missing touch-kicks and getting yellow-carded. Those are two key elements of a back-line capable of much more than it has shown this year.

Up front there have been two worries: first, that key players have been either injured (Gethin Jenkins) or missing in action (Alun-Wyn Jones). Second, that the stocks of reserves capable of stepping up to the level are worryingly low. It does take time for new faces to make a mark and this is the first time injuries have ravaged the Welsh pack so thoroughly, but there's not been much potential on show either.

Then there's the coaching team. It's settled, it's done a grand job but it is facing a stiff test of resolve and cerebral toughness this time. Shaun Edwards' famed defence appears to have been found out and there's not much sign of change. Frustration and hard work alone will not plug the leaks.

Strategically, the only times the Welsh have flourished in this tournament is when caution is thrown to the wind. Gone are the days of 2008 when the Welsh team conceded only two tries all tournament and would have strangleholds on most matches. This year has been all about falling helplessly behind and then running the opposition ragged to fight back. Exciting, yes. Effective, no. The mixture appears to be wrong and it's not something that hard work alone will fix. New ideas are needed – Italy ought to provide perfect practice.

You'd forgive the Azzurri for stepping into Cardiff feeling a little punch-drunk after last week's dazzling French display. Italy may have fought back a little late on but that owed just as much to the French easing off the gas as it did to the Italians' spirit.

Yet there were signs of progress. The line-break count was up and there were bits and scraps of handling to signify the work being done on sorting out Italy's hitherto blunt attack. Gonzalo Garcia is starting to look a little more comfortable, Craig Gower is finding a rhythm – both helped in no small way by the re-emergence of Pablo Canavosio. An inner confidence that things are possible is noticeable.

Ultimately, this match is a play-off for fourth place – assuming Scotland don't beat Ireland. For Italy, that's a decent achievement, for Wales, that's already far below. Italy's mission is clear but for Wales it will be about sealing a disappointing season on a healthy note and making sure it does not unravel completely. You sense that a country's faith in the national set-up rather depends upon the team achieving the former.

Ones to watch:

For Wales: The mythical fly-half factory somewhere in the Welsh valleys is still operating on old software, but were the Welsh to transfer production to the wing factory things might be different. Tom Prydie is the latest model to roll off that particular production line. Not a lot has been heard of him outside Welsh borders but then not a lot had been heard of Leigh Halfpenny either…

For Italy: Pablo Canavosio has been Italy's tournament revelation, sparking the key attack against the Scots and darting over for a super solo try against France. Mike Phillips will have his hands full and maybe utilising Canavosio's capabilities properly will give Italy's attack a little extra.

Head to head: Second row is where many of Wales' problems have been this year. Luke Charteris still lacks a bit of presence despite his height, but Bradley Davies is beginning to shine. Against an experienced duo like Marco Bortolami and Quintin Geldenhuys, both will have to shine if they are to cure Wales' line-out woes.

Recent results:

2009: Wales won 20-15, Rome
2008: Wales won 47-8, Cardiff
2007: Italy won 23-20, Rome
2006: Wales and Italy drew 18-18, Cardiff
2005: Wales won 38-8, Rome
2004: Wales won 44-10, Cardiff
2003: Wales won 27-15, Canberra (World Cup)
2003: Italy won 30-22, Rome
2002: Wales won 44-20, Cardiff
2001: Wales won 33-23, Rome

Prediction: A tired-looking Wales to get home a little uncomfortably and win by ten points

The teams:

Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Tom Prydie , 13 James Hook, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Jonathan Thomas, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 Paul James, 18 Ian Gough, 19 Gareth Delve, 20 Dwayne Peel, 21 Andrew Bishop, 22 Tom Shanklin

Italy: 15 Luke McLean, 14 Kaine Robertson, 13 Gonzalo Canale, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Mirco Bergamasco, 10 Craig Gower, 9 Pablo Canavosio, 8 Alessandro Zanni, 7 Mauro Bergamasco, 6 Josh Sole, 5 Quintin Geldenhuys, 4 Marco Bortolami, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini (c) 1 Salvatore Perugini.
Replacements: 16 Fabio Ongaro, 17 Matias Aguero, 18 Valerio Bernabo, 19 Manoa Vosawai, 20 Tito Tebaldi, 21 Riccardo Bocchino, 22 Matteo Pratichetti.

Date: Saturday, March 21
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 14.30 GMT
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)

By Richard Anderson