Preview: South Africa v New Zealand

Never mind the Tri-Nations, there's a far more attractive cherry to be plucked from the aftermath of this clash.

Never mind the Tri-Nations, there's a far more attractive cherry to be plucked from the aftermath of this clash.

This is not only the second of the nine Tri-Nations matches this year, it is also a straight head-to-head winner-takes-all play-off for number one spot in the IRB rankings. The two undisputed heavyweights of world rugby clashing. Oh yes!

Opinions are divided everywhere. Does this New Zealand tight five have what it takes to stand up to the Boks? Can Isaac Ross survive a test against the best? Is Heinrich Brüssow worthy of comparison to Richie McCaw? Are New Zealand's backs firing again? Will Brendon Leonard make it through unscathed and bring to the black jersey what he brings to the Chiefs? Will Jaque Fourie prove Adi Jacobs' doubters right or wrong? Has Joe Rokocoko got his mo-Joe back?

One thing's for certain, it's going to be close. Leaving aside last year's woeful nilling of South Africa at home, there's not been more than eight points between these two for the preceding five matches.

In the context of the tournament, New Zealand already have a nose in front; a win here would give them a couple of lengths' breathing space. Away wins are precious in this tournament, even if now slightly devalued by the ridiculous proliferation of matches that warps the tasks assigned to the teams – is it really a fair competition where New Zealand pop in for two matches in SA immediately after a Test against Australia, while the Wallabies have a three-week rest before a one-week tour?

Stats don't give much away. The last time New Zealand played in Bloemfontein was in 1976 when they won 15-9. The only other time was 1960 when the match finished all square at 11-11. South Africa don't have a particularly proud recent record here, losing the last meaningful match 27-22 against England in 2000. They've won four since then, but all four were against tired touring teams.

Freshness – or the lack thereof – may count for much once all the initial pushing and shoving is done. Flying across ten time zones and recovering from one punishing Test to gear up for another is a stiff test by anyone's standards. Will New Zealand have enough in the tank when it gets to the final 20 minutes of heaving rarified air?

That should not be a concern for the Boks, who were suspected of being underdone before the first Lions Test in June and promptly racked up a 20-point lead in 50 minutes. Since that wonderful series, they have had three weeks to recuperate once more. Not one significant injury ails the camp – Adi Jacobs' troublesome groin aside.

But for that final 20 minutes, questions linger over the depth of the squad. Substitutions almost cost them that 20-point lead in Durban – cynics might say that only as blatant a piece of cheating as Tom Williams' ketchup-gate episode rescued them, when John Smit came back on. Questions might also linger over the mid-game tactical decision-making of Peter de Villiers too, although he seems to have learned his lesson.

You have to look at the final 20 minutes, for there is just no way of separating these two teams otherwise. South Africa may get the nudge on in the tight five but they'll have to be quicker and more inventive in the loose to combat New Zealand's defence. New Zealand may find spaces out wide but South Africa will keep them penned back where possible.

The differences all over the park: Stephen Donald's running strength to Ruan Pienaar's considered game, Sitiveni Sivivatu's counter-attacking instinct to Bryan Habana's measured defence and finishing, Rodney So'oialo's tight workmanship to Pierre Spies' love of open spaces, Isaac Ross' mesmerising ball skills to Bakkies Botha's physicality, these all can cancel each other out as well as open each other up. It's an impossible game to pick.

But when you get to that final quarter and the mind begins to tire, you suspect that New Zealand might still have it more upstairs. You suspect the coach will not make a rash decision, you don't see the All Black defence cracking, you get a feeling that when the spaces appear, New Zealand have the greater arsenal of weaponry with which to exploit them. Despite South Africa's glory in June, last week's win over Australia, born of indomitable spirit and concentration just nudges you towards the All Blacks for this one.

Ones to watch:

For South Africa: John Smit has a heck of a test as a tighthead here. Tony Woodcock is up there with the best looseheads in the world and will make sure Smit is punished if the ex-hooker does not get it right. With the tight five contest likely to be in South Africa's favour, this could be the chink in the armour.

For New Zealand: Brendon Leonard has had such a miserable time with injury over the past couple of years that you sometimes forget how capable he is of changing a game in an instant. Back once again from a lengthy lay-off, up against the best in the world, here is Leonard's chance to remind us what he's all about.

Head to head: Bakkies Botha v Brad Thorn. A battle that will epitomise the match. Two relentless physical bullies going all-out for domination against each other. Neither is renowned for his ability to endear himself to his opposition, so watch for these two in the eye of all and any on-pitch needle.

Recent results:

2008 New Zealand won 19-0 in Cape Town
2008 South Africa won 30-28 in Dunedin
2008 New Zealand won 19-11 in Wellington
2007 New Zealand won 33-27 in Christchurch
2007 New Zealand won 26-21 in Durban
2006 South Africa won 21-20 in Rustenburg
2006 New Zealand won 45-26 in Pretoria
2006 New Zealand won 35-17 in Wellington
2005 New Zealand won 31-27 in Dunedin
2005 South Africa won 22-16 in Cape Town
2004 South Africa won 40-26 in Johannesburg
2004 New Zealand won 23-21 in Christchurch

Prediction: Perhaps the toughest call of the year to date. But we reckon South Africa may have shot their bolt against the Lions. New Zealand by four.

The teams:

South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Morne Steyn, 22 Wynand Olivier.

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko , 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read,