Preview: S14, Round Ten, Day Two

Editor 22 Apr 2008 11:12 AM

An action-packed programme of Round Ten fixtures this weekend could provide a turning point for some, and setbacks for others, in a hotly-contested struggle for places in the last four of the Super 14.

With only three points separating third from eighth at the moment, it will be most interesting to see how the mid-table battle unfolds over the next five weeks.

Several interesting encounters are in store between teams that are, in some cases, separated by only a small margin, between others desperate to climb their way into the running and in cases where a struggling team could do damage with an upset result.

The Waratahs, who have quietly gone about their business in recent weeks to occupy fourth place, are at home against the struggling Lions, who were a bit better in their loss against the Crusaders last week.

The Sharks, who are unbeaten in eight matches to date, will be looking to break a 10-year victory drought against the Brumbies in Canberra. The Brumbies struggled with injuries early on but have improved since the return of stalwart Stirling Mortlock, who has been ruled out of this match with concussion.

Whilst the Brumbies' form has been erratic at times they are tough to overcome at home and the Sharks will have to work hard to keep their winning run intact.

Next up, the hapless Bulls host the Highlanders at Loftus Versfeld. The New Zealanders have struggled this season, but have seldom been embarrassed like the defending champs have this season.

Both sides have perhaps been low on confidence and the one that is able to pick itself up best will most likely secure the points.

The Cape of Good Hope will become the Cape of storms when the Stormers host New Zealand's Hurricanes at Newlands in a key clash that has the potential to wreak havoc at the top of the Super 14 table.

With three points separating the seventh-placed Stormers and third-placed Hurricanes, a victory for either team would inflate their semi-final chances significantly, because nine teams are still in the running for play-off berths.

Waratahs v Lions
Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney, 17:30 (08:30 BST, 07:30 GMT)

The Lions might have given the Crusaders a few anxious moments last week, but there are still few predicting a red tide to sweep through Sydney come Saturday against the surging but battle-weary Waratahs.

Acutely aware of their dubious record on the road, the Waratahs will have identified an unbeaten run at the Sydney Football Stadium (SFS) this season as the key to securing a Super 14 semi-finals berth.

The fourth-placed Waratahs are four from four at home in 2008 and realise anything less than victory over the lowly-rated Lions on Saturday and then the undefeated Sharks next week in their final home game will place their participation in the play-offs in serious jeopardy.

The Waratahs have lost only nine of 30 home matches over the past five years under coach Ewen McKenzie, with more than half of those defeats coming last season alone when the injury-ravaged 'Tahs finished second last.

But while the SFS has proven somewhat of a fortress for the Waratahs, they have suffered double the amount of losses (18 from 28 games) away from home since McKenzie took charge in 2004.

With a treacherous three-week South African road trip to complete their home-and-away campaign, the Waratahs should be treating the Lions and Sharks fixtures as finals come early.

The Waratahs backed-up their best performance of the season against the Blues in Round Eight with a gritty win over the Force and appear to be gathering momentum as the race for the semis heats up.

Of the Australian teams, the Waratahs proved in Round Nine that a good defensive effort will always prevail over a mediocre attacking display.

While last week's win over the Force in Perth wasn't pretty, their defence was superb and they smothered their opponents in an impressive performance with their shoulders.

In contrast, the Lions' draw with the Reds in Round Six is the closest they have come to victory since their one-point win over the Cheetahs in the opening round.

However, the Lions are not the easybeats that their fourteenth position on the Super 14 table would suggest and cannot be taken lightly.

Their scoreline (6-31) wasn't much different to the Waratahs' scoreline against the Crusaders (7-34 in Round Six), so the hosts will know that the Lions are a competitive side and will be doing everything they can to try and sneak a win.

The Lions threw everything they had at the under-strength Crusaders to lead at half-time last week, but they didn't have the class or experience to go on with the job.

With a place in the top four now impossible, Lions' coach “Loffie” Eloff has admitted that his team's hopes of even finishing in the top half of the log are fast fading away.

The Lions' modest pre-season goal of finishing seventh or higher is a long way off now, as they have ended the last two weekends as the competition's basement-dweller.

Before they left, Lions coach Eloff had targeted three wins on their tour Down Under, but with two losses in successive weekends they will need to remain unbeaten against the Waratahs, Brumbies and Hurricanes to achieve this goal.

It looks highly unlikely that this will happen, as all three teams are reaching peak form, while the Lions seem to be heading in the opposite direction.

Their two final fixtures at home are against other semi-final contenders, the Chiefs and Stormers. With both teams in search of crucial points, the Johannesburg-based franchise may have to settle for a solitary victory (in Round One) throughout the entire campaign.

The Waratahs also have a superb record against the Lions. They have only lost once against the South Africans in the history of Super Rugby, and that was way back in 2001.

Super head to head: The last-placed Lions may have only won one game, but the Waratahs' players and coaches have plenty of respect for their big forwards. Their front row is going to be a real tough battle because they've exposed quite a few scrums in the front end of the season. If the Waratahs get that scrum base right, then they can take full control of them. Matt Dunning – playing in his 94th game for the Waratahs – will have it all to do against the promising and incredibly strong Heinke van der Merwe who has been hailed as the next Os du Randt by the South African media. The word “crikey” will be going through the Wallaby prop's mind who must have thought he had seen the last – or any resemblance – of the retired Springbok hero.

Prediction: It must be tough to be a Lions' fan. They are a bunch of honest grafters with a decent coach, but their lack of quality and depth throughout their squad is a disaster waiting to happen. Oh wait, it already has. The Waratahs to win by 20 points.

The teams:

Waratahs:

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