Preview: S14, Round 12, Day One

Sudden-death rugby begins three weeks early for teams walking the Super 14 tightrope in Round Twelve this weekend.

It's make or break time for the semi-final contenders as sudden-death rugby begins three weeks early for teams walking the Super 14 tightrope in Round Twelve this weekend.

Eleven down and three games to go before the play-offs and while there are nine teams with a mathematical chance of reaching the top four, after this weekend we will surely be able to draw a line through a couple of them.

Only the leading Crusaders have a buffer – seven points on the field. They can guarantee a home semi-final if they beat the third-placed Sharks in the Round Twelve opener in Christchurch on Friday.

The Blues travel to Brisbane aware they have beaten the Reds just once there in six meetings, breaking their drought two years ago.

And finally, pride will be on the line in Bloemfontein when the Cheetahs host the Highlanders.

Both teams share 11 points to sit one rung off the bottom of the table, having endured similar seasons featuring one win and a host of narrow losses.

The Cheetahs have conceded 25 tries in matches against the four other New Zealand teams, and have lost both their previous meetings against the New Zealand outfit.

Crusaders v Sharks
AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 19:35 (local), 08:35 (GMT)

It might be one versus three as far as their position on the table goes but both sides have taken their eye off the ball in recent weeks.

The Crusaders got home against the Blues last week but it could have gone either way. The previous week they were beaten for the first time this season by the Chiefs.

Though one feels they have had their biggest tests of their season and they are still the undisputed heavyweights of the competition this year after maintaining a good lead at the top of the points table.

The Sharks may have won their first six games at home but they've won just one of their four games on the Australasian tour.

So it's no surprise then that it's the Sharks that have it all to do to against the Crusaders to make the Super 14 play-offs after two successive second half meltdowns.

After being second on the standings for all of nine rounds, last year's losing finalists are in danger of not only missing out on a home semi-final, but also of not making the last four at all.

Suffering their first defeat of the season, against the Brumbies in Canberra last weekend seems to have had a bigger psychological effect than many would have thought.

Their game-plan went to pieces in the second half against the Waratahs last week and resulted in the Sydneysiders wrest second place from them on the table with a 25-10 win.

With rugby a game of momentum, it is not inconceivable that the Sharks could miss out to fellow South African side, the Stormers, who have worked up a head of steam while the men from Durban look to be stuck in reverse.

While there are mitigating factors regarding the Sharks capitulation last week, their management team should be concerned about their credentials as title contenders.

Injuries alone – which have claimed the lives of lock Steven Sykes, centre Brad Barritt, fly-half Frederic Michalak and hooker Bismarck du Plessis (skipper Johann Muller is in doubt with a calf strain) – can't explain away the Sharks' dramatic recent loss of form.

For most of the competition, coach Dick Muir's charges were winning games they weren't supposed to. This was at first seen as the mark of a championship side, now it's staring to look as though they were just lucky.

Bad luck, however, is only partly responsible for the Sharks being at the crossroads of their season.

Despite having solid set phases all season, the Sharks have repeatedly failed to create chances and score.

In last week's match against the Waratahs, the Sharks created just two clear chances – one in either half. This goes a long way towards explaining why they've scored the third-fewest tries in the competition (19) and have the joint fewest bonus points (two).

Adding to their woes has been their management at the breakdown – the Sharks are getting killed at the most critical area in the game either by the referee or their opposition.

With 32 points on the board in third place, it would be silly to write off the Sharks for a place in the play-offs. But with fellow semi-final contenders the Crusaders and Chiefs to face in their three remaining fixtures (their third is against the Cheetahs), the road to the last four has acquired some new potholes.

What the Crusaders won't want is a repeat of last year's helter-skelter finish in Durban.

Leading after the final hooter, the Crusaders inexplicably opted against putting the ball out and paid for it when a turnover saw the Sharks surge the length of the field for a try to Odwa Ndungane – which was duly converted by Ruan Pienaar from the touchline for the win.

Of comfort is the Crusaders' six-from-six home record against the Sharks, which included a 77-point haul when they last played in Christchurch three years ago.

Super head to head: The Crusaders have been boosted by the return of centre Casey Laulala who has terrorised backlines this season through his ability to break tackles and his ferocious fend. He will really test Waylon Murray in the Sharks midfield. The unlucky number thirteen has had to overcome niggling injuries and has not yet reached the form that catapulted him into a Springbok jersey last year. Murray will need to make amends and prove that he's not in Christchurch to make up the numbers after regular centre Brad Barritt was forced to sit out with an injury.

Prediction: The injury toll will prove too much for the Sharks against the top side in the competition that has almost no injuries and is fielding its strongest possible line-up. The Crusaders to win by twelve points.

The teams:

Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Andrew Ellis,8 Nasi Manu, 7 Richard McCaw (c), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ross Filipo, 19 George Whitelock, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Hamish Gard, 22 Caleb Ralph

Sharks: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Waylon Murray, 12 Francois Steyn, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Rory Kockott, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 AJ Venter, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johann Muller (c), 4 Albert van den Burg, 3 BJ Botha, 2 Craig Burden, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Skipper Badenhorst, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Jean Deysel, 19 Keegan Daniel, 20 Andries Strauss, 21 Henno Mentz, 22 Adrian Jacobs.

Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Brett Bowden (Australia), Josh Noonan (New Zealand)
Television match official: Kane McBride (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Kim Eichmann (New Zealand)

Reds v Blues
Suncorp Stadium,