Preview: Rebels v Crusaders

It could be a procession for Super Rugby leaders the Crusaders when they run out to face the Rebels at AAMI Park in Melbourne on Saturday.

12 straight wins have been nothing short of sensational from the Christchurch outfit and we have run out of superlatives to throw at them.

Six of the victories have been bonus-point successes and with the Rebels flailing near the foot of the table, this should be win number 13.

When the pair last went toe-to-toe in 2016 it was an 85-26 hammering from the Crusaders and even with Scott Robertson rotating his line-up for bigger tests to come, something around that margin is not to be written off. Yes, the visitors have the game to cut loose in Melbourne.

What is also worrying for the struggling Rebels is that only one of their last seven matches at home against teams from outside Australia has been decided by a margin of less than 22 points (L6, D1). Furthermore the last time they took on a Kiwi side they conceded 51 points.

More positives come for the in-form Crusaders by the fact they have emerged victorious from each of their last five Super Rugby visits to Australia; at no point in Super Rugby history have they enjoyed a longer streak in the nation and we expect that run to continue this week.

This will be the Crusaders’ penultimate game before the June break when the British and Irish Lions series starts as next week they play host to the Highlanders in yet another vital derby. That may help limit the damage the Rebels are expected to take but that could well be wishful thinking for those in Melbourne blue as Robertson clearly sets high standards, which right now the Crusaders are meeting week after week.

The last time the teams met: It was a procession for the Crusaders in their 2016 game as they ran in 13 tries to win 85-26. Sam Whitelock, Ryan Crotty (2), Scott Barrett, Alex Hodgman, Nemani Nadolo, Johnny McNicholl (3), Codie Taylor (2), Pete Samu and Matt Todd all crossed the whitewash with Richie Mo’unga kicking 14 points and Nadolo six via conversions. In reply, Nic Stirzaker, Reece Hodge, Culum Retallick and Sefanaia Naivalu were the Rebels’ try-scorers on a forgetful evening in Christchurch as they were chasing shadows for much of the game.

Players to watch: It promises to be a difficult evening for Rebels fly-half Jackson Garden-Bachop when he goes up against the free-running Richie Mo’unga. Mo’unga is in outstanding form at the moment after seamlessly slotting back in after an injury, while Garden-Bachop’s game on his debut season in Melbourne has struggled to have the desired effect that coach Tony McGahan was hoping for. It’s unlikely he’ll see much front-foot attacking ball so the first box to tick will be to limit the damage Mo’unga can inflict on the Rebels. That won’t be easy.

Elsewhere the return to the Crusaders jersey of Israel Dagg is a boost not just for their season run-in but also the All Black selectors. Dagg’s experience is unquestionable and he will have been itching to make his return in recent weeks. A quality player who should impress.

Team news: The Rebels have made five changes to their starting line-up for Saturday. They welcome back captain Nic Stirzaker, Tom English and Sefa Naivalu from injury, while Colby Fainga’a returns to the starting line-up and Lopeti Timani is shifted to lock. McGahan has named an unchanged front row with Toby Smith, James Hanson and Tyrel Lomax for the second consecutive week. Reece Hodge has been named at inside centre but must complete the concussion protocols after he suffered a head knock in the first minute of last week’s clash at the Waratahs.

Crusaders head coach Scott Robertson has made 10 changes to the side that beat the Chiefs last week. Last week’s bench front row of Wyatt Crockett, Ben Funnell and Mike Alaalatoa becomes the starting front row in Melbourne. Andrew Makalio, Joe Moody and Oli Jager will provide cover. Lock Quinten Strange will make his first start of the season, pairing up with Sam Whitelock, while Luke Romano takes a spot on the bench. The loose forward trio will be Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, Pete Samu and Jordan Taufua, with Jed Brown having recovered from injury to take a place in the reserves. Israel Dagg will also return from injury to take the wing this week, with Manasa Mataele at 11. Tim Bateman steps into the 12 spot and Seta Tamanivalu will start at centre, taking the place of Jack Goodhue who has featured heavily this campaign.

Form: Still just the one victory for the Rebels this season as they have now lost nine and drawn one of their fixtures. Their latest loss came at the hands of the Waratahs last week when they suffered a 50-23 away defeat. They leak on average six tries per game, scoring one.

In stark contrast the Crusaders made it 12 wins from 12 last Friday against an often tricky opponent in the Chiefs. That 31-24 result put them 11 points clear of the Hurricanes and Chiefs but both have a game in hand. They have scored 65 tries in 2017, which is five per game.

Prediction: No doubts about this call, the unstoppable visitors should run out easy winners at AAMI Park on Saturday. Crusaders by 35.

Previous results:

2016: Crusaders won 85-26 in Christchurch
2015: Rebels won 20-10 in Christchurch
2014: Crusaders won 25-19 in Melbourne
2013: Crusaders won 30-26 in Christchurch
2012: Rebels won 28-19 in Melbourne

The teams:

Rebels: 15 Ben Volavola, 14 Sefa Naivalu, 13 Tom English, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Nic Stirzaker (c), 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Lopeti Timani, 4 Steve Cummins, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 James Hanson, 1 Toby Smith
Replacements: 16 Siliva Siliva, 17 Fereti Sa’aga, 18 Laurie Weeks, 19 Culum Retallick, 20 Hugh Sinclair, 21 Ben Meehan, 22 Mitch Inman, 23 Jonah Placid

Crusaders: 15 David Havili, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Seta Tamanivalu, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Manasa Mataele, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Jordan Taufua, 7 Pete Samu, 6 Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, 5 Sam Whitelock (c), 4 Quinten Strange, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Ben Funnell, 1 Wyatt Crockett
Replacements: 16 Andrew Makalio, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Oli Jager, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Jed Brown, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Mitchell Hunt, 23 George Bridge

Date: Saturday, May 27
Venue: AAMI Park, Melbourne
Kick-off: 19:45 local (09:45 GMT)
Referee: Glen Jackson
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams, Damon Murphy
TMO: George Ayoub