Preview: New Zealand v Wales

57 years is one of the figures inevitably seeping into conversations about this match, the length of time since Wales last won it.

57 years. That's going to be one of the figures inevitably seeping into conversations about this match, the length of time expired since Wales last won it.

There are other statistical nasties looming as well. There's the likelihood of Stephen Jones becoming the player to hold the joint-highest number of defeats against any one nation (Italian Sergio Lanfranchi's twelve tales of woe against France in the 1950s is the current benchmark), a bit harsh on a player who will also become the player to play the joint-highest number of Tests against the All Blacks (none other than Serge Blanco holds the current record there).

Then there's the simple prospect of a heavy defeat for the Welsh, who are still not back up to the standard of 2008 under Warren Gatland and now face an All Black team full of youth, confidence and speed after this year's excellent Super 14.

For the Kiwis, there's also a statistical bugbear: two out of three defeats in the 36 home matches played under Graham Henry have occurred at Saturday's venue, one against South Africa, one against France.

Saturday's match will be the final match at the House of Pain, one which the Kiwi coaching team does not intend to lose.

“It should be buried in the appropriate way,” All Blacks coach Graham Henry said.

“We've sort of stuffed up the record, haven't we. We'd like to leave that ground with fond memories.”

It is a ground with fond memories indeed. Kiwi fans ought to remember well nilling South Africa there in 1999, victories in four B&I Lions Tests in '59, '66, '77 and '83, as well as the defeat of South Africa in 1994, the Boks' first tour to New Zealand after their re-entry into the Test arena.

The All Blacks have lost only five matches out of 36 at the House of Pain at all (as Henry pointed out, before the last two matches it was three from 34), so yes, you'd think there was a little extra spark of passion there for the locals to defend a tradition, not least Jimmy Cowan.

It ought not to be a problem. New Zealand may have gone off the boil last week but they were devastatingly effective for the 20-25 minutes it took to see Irish discipline fall apart. The new quicker game suits their strengths to a tee – racking up 66 points when at half pace against Ireland served as a reminder of that.

The new version of the All Black side – how often do they invent themselves – is tailor-made to the new law interpretations: armed with dynamic centres, lethal finishers on the wing and now as dynamic an attacking full-back. Dan Carter is not the free-running force he once was, but with so much weaponry outside him he can simply sit back, distribute and kick the goals.

Up front, there's a carefully cultivated well of experience behind the brothers in arms at prop and a front eight full of pace and running. There's a similar pattern on the bench: the experience of Piri Weepu alongside the emerging talent that is Aaron Cruden.

Wales' team is less well-designed and contains fewer emerging players who have played their way into the side. Gavin Thomas gets another chance to prove himself, but there's a clear element of him being the last man standing for the job.

Excepting Tom Prydie, the team consists otherwise of many many players who have taken on the All Blacks once, twice, eleven times and just not quite found the way past them.

As Warren Gatland explained earlier in the week: “You've got to come here and back yourself and have that belief that you can perform. Perhaps in the past that may not have been the case (with Wales).”

Perhaps, but barring the close 26-25 defeat in Cardiff in 2004, the truth is that whichever side of the world this fixture has been on, the Welsh just do not cope well with the All Blacks' style of play and the slow speed of the Welsh build-up plays into the All Blacks' hands.

Last November's 19-12 scoreline was closer than it ought to have been – New Zealand had three second-half raids on the line disallowed or repelled by millimetres. In Dunedin, the Welsh might not find their defence so able to stop the ball hitting the turf behind the line.

Ones to watch:

For New Zealand: We mentioned him last week and we'll go for it again as he strives to build on a terrific debut: Israel Dagg's accession to the number fifteen jersey is a grave threat to Mils Muliaina's supremacy in the position. Dagg just seems to be able to raise his game each and every time he climbs a level, but the acid test for a newbie is not the first test display, it is showing an improvement in the second…

For Wales: Stephen Jones holds the key to Wales' ability to help him not become the person to have lost the most games against any one country. He kicks the goals, he distributes the ball, he picks the runners… he has to get it absolutely spot on or the 32-year-old Aberystwythian's black day will continue.

Head to head: The battles between the two sets of locks ought to be interesting. Both teams have one bruiser – Thorn for New Zealand and Davies for Wales – and one more athletic out and out jumper/number six type – Boric for New Zealand and Jones for Wales. Line-out is not going to be the most crucial factor in this game, but the battle in the loose between this quartet is going to count significantly as the teams look to open and speed the game up.

Recent results:

2009: New Zealand won 19-12 in Cardiff
2008: New Zealand won 29-9 in Cardiff
2006: New Zealand won 45-10 in Cardiff
2005: New Zealand won 41-3 in Cardiff
2004: New Zealand won 26-25 in Cardiff
2003: New Zealand won 53-37 in Sydney
2003: New Zealand won 55-3 in Hamilton
2002: New Zealand won 43-17 in Cardiff
1997: New Zealand won 42-7 at Wembley
1995: New Zealand won 34-9 in Johannesburg
1989: New Zealand won 34-9 in Cardiff

Prediction: New Zealand, going on form, ought to win this quite handsomely. As long as they don't switch off again, expect New Zealand to win by about a 25-point margin.

The teams:

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Victor Vito, 5 Anthony Boric, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Ben Franks
Replacements: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 Tony Woodcock, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Richard Kahui.

Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 Andrew Bishop, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Tom Prydie, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Ryan Jones (c), 7 Gavin Thomas, 6 Jonathan Thomas, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 John Yapp, 18 Deiniol Jones, 19 Rob McCusker, 20 Tavis Knoyle, 21 Dan Biggar, 22 Jonathan Davies.

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