Preview: New Zealand v Australia

The Tri-Nations is upon us again, with Australia favourites to some. But to make the right start, they must break a long-standing jinx.

The Tri-Nations is upon us again, with Australia favourites in some eyes. But to make the right start, they'll have to break a long-standing jinx.

New Zealand have not lost to Australia at Eden Park since 1986. Exacerbating that fact is that the only other team to have won there since is France, with the try from the end of the world in 1994. It's a fortress in the most classic sporting sense of the word.

There's more on the line for New Zealand than that loss of a proud record: if they lose, South Africa will hit the top of the IRB rankings for the first time in eleven months – during which time the ABs have smiled down gloatingly at the rest of the world. Except, obviously at France.

It is France who have sown a few seeds of doubt around the myth that this is another All Black machine on an inexorable march towards probable global domination. Yes the All Blacks were shorn of a few key players, but no, that shouldn't have mattered. To previous generations, at home, against a tired French team at the end of a murderous season, even the All Black second XV would have won convincingly.

The NZRU places unswerving confidence in Graham Henry and company, recently responding to the latest round of doubts by handing him a contract extension. That may end up an egg-on-face scenario if New Zealand fail this year, particularly with little recuperation time before a monstrous November schedule.

But reality is that Henry is not under-performing; the production line of rugby-perfect Kiwi specimens appears to have faltered. There is still no back-up to Richie McCaw. Isaia Toeava's development has hit a rut. Stephen Donald has not been able to add the consistency he needed to. Brendon Leonard is a class act, but one seemingly made of porcelain. The emerging props are not quite in the mould of Hayman and Woodcock. It's taken longer than usual, but perhaps a great generation is coming to an end – just in time for a World Cup on home soil.

Across the Tasman, things are moving in the other direction. Australia have a wealth of young potential, being brought on at a natural pace underneath a settled squad of rugby statesmen. Will Genia, James O'Connor, David Pocock and Richard Brown all have potential for greatness, but are not being thrust into the deep end properly yet, not being cast adrift in depths where the evermore cynical media will harangue them for not being able to swim without even acknowledging their lack of practice laps in calmer waters.

Meanwhile, those above them have developed a more resilient surface, concealing a sharper cutting edge. The win against France displayed a terrific depth of focus, capitalising on each and every opportunity and topping it off with one laser-beam try. It was a complete performance, only lacking a little more slice to the attack. Even on the recent Lions tour, the acerbic English media watched that win and began muttering sentences with the words 'Australia', 'dark horse' and 'next World Cup' in them.

We'll have a better idea how far Australia have risen and New Zealand have fallen after Saturday's game. Many All Black stalwarts are back from injury, and they are not going to be players to whom you could waggle a telling finger and accuse of needing a game or two to get back up to pace. Richie McCaw will lead as ably as ever and create a nightmare at ruck time, Rodney So'oialo will be all over the place, Sitiveni Sivivatu will relish being free of injury and back on the counter. It's still a complete team, still a team from 1-15 that is stronger on paper than its counterparts.

Yet Australia's attack will be marshalled carefully by Matt Giteau, George Smith will have a field day on his 100th cap, and the scrum is no longer inferior, while the back three is now more involved in Australia's attack than ever before. Robbie Deans has expanded Australia's portfolio without once weakening what was already there.

For all that is writ above, New Zealand have not exactly fallen apart and there is the Auckland factor to take on board, a factor that reversed a 34-19 defeat in Sydney last year to a crushing 39-10 victory. New Zealand could well win. But should Australia even manage a bonus point in what is surely their hardest match of the tournament, that ought to be warning enough to the rest.

Ones to watch:

For New Zealand: Stephen Donald's card is marked every time he plays, measure as he is against Dan Carter every time he dons the black jersey. Inconsistency dogs him, negating those flashes of intuitive running brilliance, but on his day he is a general. Can he deliver under the closest scrutiny?

For Australia: George Smith gets to 100 not out, Australia's fourth centurion. He goes head to head against his oldest foe on Saturday and will be desperate to get one over on nemesis McCaw to see out match 100 with a rare victory.

Head to head: Isaac Ross v Nathan Sharpe is a match between a young upstart with some outrageous skills against a gnarly old soldier who is still laying claim to the 'most physical lock in the world' tag each time he plays. Sharpe must be on his toes not to give Ross space either in the open or at the line-out – where Ross is growing rapidly more accomplished.

Prediction: New Zealand to edge it by four points – but there will be proof enough that Australia are the ones to watch in this tournament.

Recent results:

2008: New Zealand won 19-14 Hong Kong
2008: New Zealand won 28-24 in Brisbane
2008: New Zealand won 39-10 in Auckland
2008: Australia won 34-19 in Sydney
2007: New Zealand won 26-12 in Auckland
2007: Australia won 20-15 in Melbourne
2006: New Zealand won 34-27 in Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 13-9 in Brisbane
2006: New Zealand won 32-12 in Christchurch
2005: New Zealand won 34-24 in Auckland
2005: New Zealand won 30-13 in Sydney
2004: Australia won 23-18 in Sydney
2004: New Zealand won 16-7 in Wellington

The teams:

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Josevata Rokocoko.

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Phil Waugh, 20 David Pocock, 21 Will Genia, 22 James O'Connor.

Date: Saturday, July