Preview: New Zealand v Australia
Was it coincidence? Or is the prospect of yet another Bledisloe Cup clash really that exciting? Australia and New Zealand touched down over last weekend in Hong Kong, and the Hang Seng promptly slumped by about 13 per cent on the Monday.
Was it coincidence? Or is the prospect of yet another Bledisloe Cup clash really that exciting? Australia and New Zealand touched down over last weekend in Hong Kong, and the Hang Seng promptly slumped by about 13 per cent on the Monday.
Global cuts in interest rates since then – every pun intended – have ensured the index's recovery, with a similar percentile rise recorded on Thursday. The initial kerfuffle over, everybody goes back to work as normal. Something like that.
One person not going back to work as normal is Dan Carter, whose switch to centre outside Stephen Donald at fly-half is by far the most interesting aspect of this clash, which brings together two rusty teams under yet another set of new laws in a climate and time-zone far removed from that which they are accustomed to.
Carter has played centre before several times, including twice against Australia in the 2004 Tri-Nations, both times opposite Matt Giteau, a near like-for-like match-up. This time he faces a different foe in Stirling Mortlock, who will give New Zealand's maestro a thorough examination of every attribute from defence to attack.
Otherwise, this is not really a match stirring the blood too much. There will be the natural competitiveness between the two countries and their sets of fans (apparently they don't care for the Aussies too much in Hong Kong), but neutrals generally appear to be looking on with a keep-a-corner-of-the-eye-open indulgent interest only. One senior member of our chat forum is even eschewing the virtues of watching the match for slogging out all 42km of the New York marathon (and the best of luck to you, HKCJ).
It's the fourth time these two have met this year, which is overkill in anyone's language. Bringing it to Asia has ensured a full house and at least offers a little variety off the pitch. Hong Kong rarely needs an excuse for an expat party, and the atmosphere around town is said to be boiling up nicely as people jet in from all over Asia. Those there will gladly see in the flesh what they are accustomed to seeing on TV. Those everywhere else may less gladly see what they've already seen three times this year.
Mostly, the match is serving as a warm-up for both teams ahead of a pair of gruelling European tours in which both are playing five matches, and is serving as an acclimatisation to the global ELVs rather than the SANZAR ELVs that the south's governing body insisted on perpetuating for another year this week, much to the chagrin of pretty much everybody but themselves.
As for the game itself, New Zealand ought to shade it. They've had less preparation time together, but most of them have seen some form of competitive rugby since the Tri-Nations finale seven weeks ago. Australia have had four weeks of boot camp which will have done lots for their tactical thinking and nothing whatsoever for their match-toughness.
The All Blacks did their best to play that down on Thursday, with Richie McCaw reasoning that time together is just as valuable as game-time: “We've had some rugby. The Wallabies have had to time to prepare for the game, which perhaps we were a little bit short of so I think it evens itself out. We've been a bit short of time but have done what we needed to.”
That will fool nobody. This All Black side, with a couple of exceptions, has had all manner of time together this year since June and the change during the four weeks before the past fortnight was probably as good as a rest. Whatever the changes in the backs they still have the same indomitable pack, not something Australia can claim to have. Robbie Deans is still searching for ideal combinations, and with the disruption to continuity the injuries have caused, this side has a mildly patchwork stop-gap feel to it.
Their biggest weakness might be a problem with the sticky climate, but it won't be enough to make them come unstuck on Saturday.
Ones to watch:
For New Zealand: It will be interesting to see how Hosea Gear goes on debut after his long and distinguished season for the Hurricanes and Wellington. Space will be at a premium, and he will have to be deadly.
For Australia: The spotlight is on Luke Burgess, as he needs a good tour to become a shoe-in for the number nine jersey on an ongoing basis. Excelling in a Test behind a pack likely to be going backwards more than forwards will be a good start.
Head to head: Take your pick: Either Stirling Mortlock v Dan Carter or Richie McCaw v George Smith. The former brings different talents head to head, where Carter has a chance to remind us of his defensive work and Mortlock will have to be on his lightest feet to cope with Carter's slippery threat. The latter contest is always the key contest under the new laws, which of the opensides will win the ball for his team? The two best in the world meet here.
Recent results:
2008 New Zealand won 28-24 in Brisbane
2008 New Zealand won 39-10 in Auckland
2008 Australia won 34-19 in Sydney
2007 New Zealand won 26-12 in Auckland
2007 Australia won 20-15 in Melbourne
2006 New Zealand won 34-27 in Auckland
2006 New Zealand won 13-9 in Brisbane
2006 New Zealand won 32-12 in Christchurch
2005 New Zealand won 34-24 in Auckland
2005 New Zealand won 30-13 in Sydney
2004 Australia won 23-18 in Sydney
2004 New Zealand won 16-7 in Wellington
2003 Australia won 22-10 in Sydney (RWC)
2003 New Zealand won 21-17 in Auckland
Prediction: The injuries have left Australia far too short, as has the lack of domestic comeptition. New Zealand by 13.
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Isaia Toeava, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Dan Carter, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Greg Somerville, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Ma'a Nonu, 22 Cory Jane.
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Ryan Cross, 12 Stirling Mortlock, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Richard Brown, 7 George Smith, 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Mark Chisholm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Phil Waugh, 19 David Pocock, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Lachie Turner.
Date: Saturday, Novemebr 1
Venue: Hong Kong Stadium
Kick-off: 16:30 (08:30 GMT)
Weather: 27°C, mainly sunny, 61 per cent humidity
Referee: Alan Lewis (Ireland)
Touch judges: George Clancy (Ireland), Peter Fitzgibbon (Ireland)
Television match official: Giulio De Santis (Italy)
Assessor: Bob Francis (New Zealand)