Preview: France v New Zealand

At the start of the tournament it would have been an All Blacks fan's worst nightmare: Facing their bogey team France in the final.

At the start of the tournament it would have been an All Blacks fan's worst nightmare: Facing their bogey team France in the final… without Dan Carter.

The best cure for nightmares is a bedtime story. So gather around, if you will, and I'll tell you The Tale of Marc le Moustache and the Shiny Gold Cup.

Once upon a time, in a land under Down Under (some called it Mordor) there was a game, a beautiful game. And it came to pass that the nations of the world travelled to this fabled land of long white clouds (though they were mostly grey) to play this most beautiful game for a prize, the most precious of precious gold cups.

One day the leader of Les Bleus rubbed the cup, and to his amazement, a genie appeared. (We don't know his name but he was very small, very fast and very difficult to catch, so we'll call him Vincent). The genie said he would grant his new friend Marc three wishes as thanks for letting him out of the cramped space inside the cup (as soon as he got over his jet lag, of course).

“Fantastique!” said Marc and made his first wish. “I wish that all the powerful nations from the South end up on the other side of the draw.” And so it came to pass that the Wallabies lost to the men in green and the Springboks edged past the fire-breathing Dragons.

“Formidable!” said Marc and made his second wish. “I wish that we will finish second in our group and qualify for the quarter-finals, no matter what.” And so it came to pass that Canada beat Tonga so that even a catastrophe in their last game didn't send Marc and his not-so-merry men home.

Fabuleux! said Marc. “Don't worry genie, we'll sort this next one out ourselves. We can always find something special to beat les Anglais.” And so it came to pass that France finally played a solid 40 minutes of rugby, enough to eliminate their old rivals.

Phénoménal! said Marc. “We might need a bit of help to get to the final though Mr. Genie, those Dragons sure are breathing a lot of fire.” And so it came to pass that the genie placed a magic red card in the referee's pocket. Lo and behold, Les Bleus were in the final!

“Well that's it for your three wishes, mon ami” said the genie. “You're on your own now. Good luck against the All Blacks!”

The end.

Or is it?

It doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to see that France got a little lucky to make it this far. Marc Lièvremont summed it up best when he said France had a “guardian angel” on their side after surviving their semi-final.

Indeed, All Blacks' fans that were dreading a meeting with their old nemesis are resting much easier having seen le XV de France stumble their way back to Eden Park, the scene of the 1987 World Cup final between the two nations.

As everyone who knows a maul from a mall will tell you, the All Blacks will be overwhelming favourites on Sunday having swept the French aside with seeming ease in their pool match almost exactly a month ago.

But before the Kiwis start counting their chickens, or their World Cups, it's worth reiterating that luck alone will not get you to a RWC Final, and this French side does not lack for talent.

In case you needed reminding, or you missed the preview for the pool game, les tricolores are the only team, apart from South Africa, to have beaten the All Blacks in New Zealand in the last eight years – claiming victory in Dunedin two years ago. They are also the last Test side to beat the hosts at Eden Park, back in 1994. France's knack of upsetting the All Blacks in World Cups is so well-documented that there is no need to rehash it here.

On paper, France have the resources to create the upset that no one dares predict. A quick glance at their six games at this tournament leaves nothing to suggest that they can win on Sunday, but a closer look at the context of each of those results prompts one to think again. Armchair experts the world over will tell that any game involving the French depends on “whether they turn up or not.” It's all about their mindset.

France have come up with the goods every time they needed to: They were pretty unimpressive for an hour against Japan and Canada, but as soon as the pressure was on to get a bonus point, the tries came flooding in. They didn't need to win against New Zealand nor against Tonga. They were dismal for 75 minutes against the Islanders until they realised they needed a try to save a losing bonus point…and it wasn't long in coming. England were dominated until half-time so there wasn't much motivation to build on a 16-0 lead.

We'll never know what would have happened had Stephen Jones slotted his conversion to put the 14-man Welsh ahead in that fateful semi-final, but I'm convinced France would have been able to step it up a gear if they needed to switch their mindset from conservation to attack.

Lièvremont knows all too well that there is nothing worse than a poorly-focused team having tasted defeat as a player in 1999 final. His squad don't seem to be listening to him much these days, but his personal experience will add real legitimacy to his pre-game speeches.

Surely motivation won't be problem on Sunday. But even then, will it be enough? That depends entirely on New Zealand's ability to cope with pressure.

If the All Blacks play to their full potential, the result is a foregone conclusion. The hosts are that good and they showed as much last week. Aaron Cruden's performance against Australia put any doubts about his capacity to deal with the big occasion to bed. New Zealand have no real weaknesses – if they score first, it'll be all over.

But if France's formidable pack and rock-solid set-piece can keep their team in the game for 30 minutes, just long enough to plant a seed of doubt in the Kiwis' minds, then the weight of expectation on the hosts' shoulders could produce the cracks that have been invisible over the last six weeks.

Throw in a moment of inspired magic from the likes of Vincent Clerc or Maxime Médard….and a dream could turn into a nightmare.

Or does that sound too much like a fairy tale?

Previous results:

2011: New Zealand won 37-17 in Auckland
2009: New Zealand won 39-12 in Marseille
2009: New Zealand won 14-10 in Wellington
2009: France won 27-22 in Dunedin
2007: France won 20-18 in Cardiff
2007: New Zealand won 61-10 in Wellington
2007: New Zealand won 42-11 in Auckland
2006:New Zealand won 23-11 in Paris
2006: New Zealand won 47-3 in Lyon
2004: New Zealand won 45-6 in Paris
2003: New Zealand won 40-13 in Sydney
2003: New Zealand won 31-23 in Christchurch
2002: France and New Zealand drew 20- 20 in Paris
2001: New Zealand won 37-12 in Wellington
2000: France won 42-33 in Marseilles<