Preview: England v New Zealand
Oh boy oh boy. A long week of soul-searching and public verbal battery in the press is about to come to a shuddering end for England. Despite the protestations of courage and graft, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone in rugby's world who doesn't think it will end with an All Black bang and an English whimper.
Oh boy oh boy. A long week of soul-searching and public verbal battery in the press is about to come to a shuddering end for England. Despite the protestations of courage and graft, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone in rugby's world who doesn't think it will end with an All Black bang and an English whimper.
The flourish of hope in victory over the Pacific Islands is no more than a vaguely cheery reminiscence these days. It was only 21 days ago, but it feels like a lifetime. Australia have laughed in the face of the boo-boys, South Africa now have counter-banter to English rugby fans' digs about 53-3 and all that. Now come New Zealand.
The All Blacks were supposed to be in a state of flux this year, supposed to be reeling from the exodus up north, supposed to be struggling to find direction under a coaching team that would not have been the democratic choice of New Zealand fans 10 months ago.
Instead, the team taking to Twickenham's turf on Saturday boasts the two undisputed best players in the world and several others at the top of the list, boasts 650 caps at an average of 43 per man and including the most experienced All Black pack of all time, and boasts a number of players believing that another 20 per cent raise in performance is possible.
The team has not conceded a single second-half point on this tour, and the only try conceded was against Munster. Maybe it's the state of the opposition, but the stats suggest that, far from flux and reeling and directionless, this is a better side even than the class of 2005-7.
The team produced a second half against Wales of unstoppable force, with even Graham Henry saying it was the best 40 minutes of rugby they had played all season. That's up against halves of the shut-out of South Africa, two crushing victories over Australia, and the period of rugby against Ireland in Dublin which saw the match wrapped up with half an hour still to play. The thought of another 20 per cent being added to that should be enough to fill the nappies of the stripling Englanders being asked to match them.
It's a complete team, and a complete array of tactical nuances. The 40 minutes against Wales was the best because of the pressure Wales had exerted for the preceding 40. Having been stretched, the All Blacks quickly identified, mid-game, the weak spots in the Welsh game-plan and set about punishing them. More men hit the breakdown, the muscle was sent up the middle where the Welsh defence could be punctured. The game was changed and the result was quickly inevitable.
It is this that ought to frighten English fans more than anything else. Not only is this current English team in its infancy in terms of experience, but the coaching staff is also tactically still in the nursery. Far from being able to change a game plan half-way through a game, the current England side's game-plan is not always apparent half-way through a game. The New Zealand of Cardiff will tear the England of last Saturday to shreds.
Bright lights for the home side? 1998's 'tour from hell' served as a useful grounding experience for a number of players who went on to become members of Clive Woodward's all-conquering squad. Nothing serves as a rugby learning experience better than a royal pasting, followed by a couple of years' practice on closing the gap. Players like Nick Kennedy, Delon Armitage, Danny Care, James Haskell, Dylan Hartley, and one Danny Cipriani will all be given a crammer school lesson on graduation exams from the best tutors in the business.
The brightest light from this English defeat may shine a couple of years down the road if the team is given time to develop together. But for now, it will do nothing to dim the spotlight on England's progress, and nothing will wash out the bitter taste of defeat in a jiffy.
Ones to watch:
For England: Nick Kennedy has been rather hard done by as Martin Johnson sought answers throughout the month, particularly as there is probably no escape from Johnno's eye playing in his former position. But the London Irish youngster has fought his way back into contention and is definitely one for the future. His schooling begins here against Ali Williams, but perhaps more poignant will be to see how he goes against Anthony Boric later in the game.
For New Zealand: Joe Rokocoko is back to his stepping, bursting best, and it was his – and cousin Sitiveni Sivivatu's – entrance into the centres off the wings that was one of the key factors in the second half against Wales last week. If England's violets begin to shrink, don't bet against 'Rocketman' getting plenty of ball all over the park.
Head-to-head: Dan Carter v Toby Flood. We're robbed of the chance to see England's supposed brightest star face up to the global benchmark man in the position, but Toby Flood will present a healthy challenge to Carter. Flood is a hard-running pivot, schooled at centre as Carter was, and has come into his own in the fly-half position at Leicester. Finally, belatedly, granted a chance to show his directorial skills for England, his role in standing up to Carter and the All Black loose trio will decide the gravity of the English fate.
Recent results:
2008 New Zealand won 44-12 in Christchurch
2008 New Zealand won 37-20 in Auckland
2006 New Zealand won 41-20 at Twickenham
2005 New Zealand won 23-19 at Twickenham
2004 New Zealand won 36-12 in Auckland
2004 New Zealand won 36-3 in Dunedin
2003 England won 15-13 in Wellington
2002 England won 31-28 at Twickenham
1999 New Zealand won 30-16 at Twickenham
1998 New Zealand won 40-10 in Auckland
1998 New Zealand won 64-22 in Dunedin
1997 Draw 26-26 at Twickenham
1997 New Zealand won 26-8 at Old Trafford
Prediction: It would be lovely to predict a close match, but if you want a contest on Saturday, go to Cardiff. New Zealand by 25 points.
The teams:
England: 15 Delon Armitage, 14 Paul Sackey, 13 Jamie Noon, 12 Riki Flutey, 11 Ugo Monye, 10 Toby Flood, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Michael Lipman, 6 James Haskell, 5 Nick Kennedy, 4 Steve Borthwick (c), 3 Phil Vickery, 2 Lee Mears, 1 Tim Payne.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Hartley, 17 Matt Stevens, 18 Tom Croft, 19 Tom Rees, 20 Harry Ellis, 21 Danny Cipriani, 22 Dan Hipkiss.
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Isaia Toeava.
Date: Saturday, November 29
Venue: Twickenham
Kick-off: 14:30 GMT
Weather: Sunny intervals with a light north