Preview: England v Ireland

Editor 14 Mar 2008 10:57 AM

Not so long ago, this might have been a Grand Slam decider. But on this final weekend of the Six Nations, Ireland's tired-looking troops trot out at Twickenham with tails between legs, to be greeted by England's equally hang-dog shower, in a direct head-to-head for the honour of actually finishing in the top half of the Six Nations table.

There is more at stake of course. Ireland will never tire of beating England (few countries do), and the chance to make it a nice round five on the bounce is an added fillip. Certainly this team has been around and together long enough, and through enough highs and lows, that merely playing for each other has often become prime motivation.

For England… hum. It is difficult to know what is at stake for England at the moment. Last week against Scotland the entire team played as though the most tangible reward for either a win or a loss was a nice shiny carrot. There are a lot of players in this current team whose places seem to have been protected only by Brian Ashton's intransigence under pressure, but that knowledge/pressure in itself can be destructive to any potential rhythm. A spell on the sidelines for some ought to have been medicinally prescribed long before now – without the medicine, the team just gets poorer.

There is not too much to say about how the game itself is likely to go. Ireland are effective in all areas; they merely need to click. They certainly were not all that far off the pace against Wales, and the second half against France and the match against Scotland showed what they are capable of. The form is patchier than it used to be, but there is nothing inherently wrong with what they do beyond the evermore familiar signs of staleness.

England are less effective, and unless someone in that coaching staff takes a vice-like grip of the team and tells them what to do, they are on a hiding to nothing. You cannot win at this level without a tactic; Brian Ashton's instruction for the players to 'go out and express themselves' is not enough. Ireland will have targeted the chinks in the armour and will punish the English. It is something England have not done for some time.

No, what is more interesting is what might happen after this game. Rob Andrew's vote of confidence in Brian Ashton on Friday morning had all the hallmarks of a death knell, and it ought to be. England need a new broom to sweep the squad clean of the chaff that will not grace the pitches of New Zealand at the next World Cup – indeed, the whole RFU could do with an overhaul with that in mind. Merely pinning all hope on Danny Cipriani's instatement is not enough. Nobody was going to be relieved of duty during a tournament, but the current non-playing structure ought not to survive that tawdry defeat in Edinburgh irrespective of what happens on Saturday. A LiÃ¨vremont-style brain is required.

Eddie O'Sullivan might save himself with a victory here though. Ireland are not rotten, and the lack of emerging talent is not a fault of the coach or his staff, it is more indicative of the strangling nature of having only four top teams to pick players from. Wales are riding high at the moment, but you could see the same happening there in a couple of years' time. O'Sullivan has done his bit, and if he gets this crucial game right, has done enough to stay. At least his players are responding to him. The same cannot be said of England's. And on that basis, Ireland should win.

Ones to watch:

For England: Lesley Vainikolo should, in many people's eyes, have gone the way of the Wilkinson, but the Tongan has one more shot at proving that he can actually smash a few people out of the way and score a try. With Danny Cipriani likely to open the play up a bit, he should get a little more opportunity.

For Ireland: Paul O'Connell was slated to be the captain after BOD's injury, but instead the honour went to Ronan O'Gara. Still, O'Connell will be relieved – he'll be able to save the puff a captain might waste talking to his team and use it on sticking in a captain's display up front.

Head to head: Ronan O'Gara v Danny Cipriani. Both come into the game in new circumstances: O'Gara as his team's skipper, and Cipriani as his team's pivot. So central a position to the whole flow of the game, how will they react?

Recent results:

2007 Ireland won 43-13 in Dublin
2006 Ireland won 28-24 at Twickenham
2005 Ireland won 19-13 in Dublin
2004 Ireland won 19-13 Twickenham
2003 England won 42-6 in Dublin
2002 England won 45-11 at Twickenham
2001 Ireland won 20-14 in Dublin
2000 England won 50-18 Ireland at Twickenham
1999 England won 27-15 in Dublin
1998 England won 35-17 Ireland at Twickenham
1997 England won 46-6 in Dublin
1996 England won 28-15 Ireland at Twickenham
1995 England won 20-8 in Dublin

Prediction: Ireland to bring the curtains down on England's miserable year. Ireland by eight points.

The teams:

England: 15 Iain Balshaw, 14 Paul Sackey, 13 Jamie Noon, 12 Toby Flood, 11 Lesley Vainikolo, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Richard Wigglesworth, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Michael Lipman, 6 Tom Croft, 5 Steve Borthwick, 4 Simon Shaw, 3 Phil Vickery (c), 2 Lee Mears, 1 Andrew Sheridan.
Replacements: 16 George Chuter, 17 Matt Stevens, 18 Ben Kay, 19 James Haskell, 20 Paul Hodgson, 21 Jonny Wilkinson, 22 Mathew Tait.

Ireland: 15 Geordan Murphy, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Andrew Trimble, 12 Shane Horgan, 11 Rob Kearney, 10 Ronan O'Gara (c), 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Denis Leamy, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Rory Best, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Bernard Jackman, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Mick O'Driscoll, 19 Simon Easterby, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Paddy Wallace, 22 Luke Fitzgerald.

Date: Saturday, March 15
Venue: Twickenham
Kick-off: 15:00 GMT
Conditions: Light rain, 13Â°C, light northerly breeze
Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Nigel Owens (Wales), Tim Hayes (Wales)
Television match official: Hugh Watkins (Wales)
Assessor: Steve Hilditch (Ireland)

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