Preview: Blues v Waratahs
The Blues host the Waratahs at Eden Park on Friday, with the winners booking a semi-final clash away to either the Reds or Stormers.
The Blues host the Waratahs at Eden Park on Friday, with the winners booking a semi-final clash away to either the Reds or Stormers the following weekend.
The destination of next week's semi all depends on what happens in the second play-off on Saturday between the Crusaders and Sharks.
If the Sharks do the impossible and pull off a second upset victory in as many weeks, then the winner in Auckland travels to Cape Town. But if the Crusaders win, the Reds will host the Blues or the Waratahs.
So with the semi-final permutations out the way, lets get to the game at hand.
In the final overall standings, fourth meets fifth. The Blues warmed up for the play-offs with a 33-16 victory over the Highlanders, while the 'Tahs clinched their finals spot with a record 41-7 triumph over the Brumbies in Sydney.
The home side banked 60 points at the end of the regular season – three more than the Waratahs – but go in against their trans-Tasman rivals on the back of some mixed results. Last week's win over the Highlanders broke a four-match losing streak, whilst the Waratahs have won three of their last five outings.
So you would have to say the Waratahs have better form at the moment.
However, history doesn't bode well for the Waratahs – or any Aussie side for that matter – in Super Rugby play-offs. Chris Hickey's troops are on a mission to become the first Australian side ever to win a finals match offshore.
Australian team records in Super Rugby play-offs is a sorry seven defeats from seven matches, with the Waratahs losing finals to the Crusaders in 2005 and 2008 as well as semi-finals to the Hurricanes in 2006 and Stormers last year.
The visitors' form on the road this season also doesn't make pleasant reading if you're a Waratahs' supporter, whose team has lost all four of their overseas games in 2011 – to the Crusaders, Blues, Bulls and Sharks.
Eden Park hasn't proved to be a happy hunting ground for the Waratahs either. They lost 31-17 at the same venue earlier this year and have recorded just one victory there (in 2009) in Super Rugby history.
So there's some good reason for the Blues to feel confident – even more so against a severely depleted Waratahs outfit.
Earlier this week, scrum-half Luke Burgess was added to an injury list that includes Berrick Barnes, Drew Mitchell, Wycliff Palu, Sekope Kepu, Rob Horne, Ben Mowen, Pat McCutcheon, Damien Fitzpatrick, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Al Baxter and Daniel Halangahu.
However, the Blues will be wary not to enter this play-off clash over-confident as Pat Lam's men could come unstuck when it matters most.
The Blues have shown they know how to produce results after going seven games unbeaten this season, but their success rate was followed up by four defeats on the bounce – their inconsistency tag that's plagued the side over the years resurfacing.
They have improved though, and looked good against the Crusaders a fortnight ago and returned to winning ways against the Highlanders. The fact that the Blues haven't won a knockout game since 2003 should also serve as a motivating factor.
It was also be the last match for several Aucklanders in a Blues jersey on home soil, with backs Joe Rokocoko, Luke McAlister and Jared Payne as well as prop John Afoa all heading abroad after the Rugby World Cup.
Ones to watch:
For Blues: Jared Payne has been the unsung hero for the Blues in 2011. The 25-year-old former Crusader has been without a doubt the most consistent player in an inconsistent Blues outfit this season. Amongst all the razzle-dazzle the Blues have in their backline, Payne is the glue that keeps everything together – whether it be at centre or full-back. He makes sound decisions and has a good instinct for when to run and when to pass.
For Waratahs: Whilst the Blues have made it public that fly-half Kurtley Beale will be a walking target, we're more interested to see how his halfback partner Josh Holmes gets on after being thrusted into the starting line-up following an injury to Luke Burgess. Strong, athletic and tall for a scrum-half at 1.87m, Holmes' size and power game are tailor-made for the brutal forward-oriented battle expected in the wet against the Blues.
Super head to head: Jerome Kaino v Phil Waugh. Possesion will be key for both sides, with the Waratahs doing everything in their power to prevent the ball getting to the dangerous Blues' backline. In what could be his final swansong for the Waratahs, the return of the retiring Waugh will make the Waratahs more competitive at the breakdown. But he will have his hands full against Blues' hardman Kaino, who was a beast in defence last time out.
Prediction: On paper, the Blues pack a bigger punch and whilst their trans-Tasman rivals will give it all they've got – we can't see the Waratahs overcoming their injuries and poor history at Eden Park. Blues to win by nine points.
The teams:
Blues: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Benson Stanley, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Lachie Munro, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (c), 1 Charlie Faumuina.
Replacements: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Tevita Mailau, 18 Chris Lowrey, 19 Daniel Braid, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Winston Stanley, 22 Sherwin Stowers.
Waratahs: 15 Lachie Turner, 14 Atieli Pakalani, 13 Ryan Cross, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Soseni Anesi, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Josh Holmes; 8 Dave Dennis, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 4 Dean Mumm, 5 Sitaleki Timani, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Paddy Ryan, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Elvis Taione, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Pat O'Connor, 19 Chris Alcock, 20 Hugh Perrett, 21 Brendan McKibbin, 22 Bernard Foley.
Date: Friday, June 24
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Stuart Dickinson, Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)