Preview: Argentina v Scotland

As has been stated elsewhere on this site, the finite number of big teams in the south makes this match seem a bit of an afterthought.

As has been stated elsewhere on this site this week, the finite number of big teams in the south makes this match seem a bit of an afterthought.

It's not just that the Tri-Nations are all hosting heavyweights but there's not enough to go round, there's also the Junior World Championship going on in Argentina which dilutes things a bit – there's only so many rugby fans while the soccer is on.

But all that does this game a bit of an injustice. After all, Scotland are the only team able to do a bit of forward scouting for the World Cup this month. It is also being played in Tucuman, where soccer is regarded as a regional sport, played in other regions.

Between the two teams, there's consistently a lot to prove. Just as Argentina can – justifiably – point to success over Scotland as a benchmark of their improvement and deserving of a place in rugby's international elite, so Scotland can – equally justifiably – point to any success over Argentina as a sign that they have not slipped out of the elite entirely. There is plenty on the line, every time, considering the national pride involved.

The forthcoming two-Test series will be the last time before they face each other in New Zealand, two more chances Scotland have to erase the memories of that painful 9-6 defeat in November that so ruined the high they had been on after beating Australia.

Scotland actually have a fair bit to prove. If Argentina are a yardstick with which to measure status by, Scotland have slipped in the past few years. They've only won one out of four Tests since the last World Cup, where Argentina also engineered Scotland's exit in the quarter-finals.

Argentina's win in November was also constructed through a makeshift team of sorts. This team is not only at home in Tucuman – as fierce a home venue as you could wish for – it is bolstered by the return of Felipe Contepomi and Juan Manuel Leguizamon from injury, key elements in the 8-9-10 pivot where so much of Argentina's game is played.

Scotland have already been in Tucuman for a week preparing, hoping to at least emulate and – if possible – slightly better their last tour results here, when they won one match and felt strongly they ought to have won the other.

The victory over Ireland at the end of the Six Nations has given fresh impetus to the revival of the national fortunes under Andy Robinson and as such, it is logical that there are only enforced changes from that victorious team – injured scrum-half and captain Chris Cusiter and absent tighthead prop Euan Murray replaced by Rory Lawson and Moray Low respectively.

Since that defeat in November, coach Andy Robinson has been at pains to point out that the Scots have been steadily improving and results back him up. The defence is there, the passion and belief are all intact, the goal-kickers are finding their mark. But still – and especially without Thom Evans – there is nobody with the x-factor talent who can break a tight game. In a country where tight games generally go the home team's way, that could be Scotland's undoing.

Ones to watch:

For Argentina: Keep your eyes on that number ten jersey. While Santiago Fernandez learns his trade from the centre, as so many fly-halves have done, Felipe Contepomi will still be the man to unleash the talent outside him and break the game for Argentina.

For Scotland: The back row has been so key to Scotland's recent successes they've even been awarded their own nickname. The Killer B's – Brown, Barclay, Beattie – will be on the rampage in Tucuman, at the forefront of Scotland's defensive efforts and ball-carrying rampages.

Head to head: Any front row in the world would struggle to match Scelzo, Ledesma and Roncero for prime beef and experience. Long in the tooth they may be, short on passion, strength and technique they are not. Scotland's tight trio has a long afternoon ahead.

Recent results:
2009: Argentina won 9-6 at Murrayfield
2008: Scotland won 24-16 in Buenos Aires
2008: Argentina won 21-15 in Rosario
2007: Argentina won 19-13 in Paris (RWC)
2005: Argentina won 23-19 at Murrayfield
2001: Argentina won 25-16 at Murrayfield
1999: Argentina won 31-22 at Murrayfield
1994: Argentina won 19-17 at Ferrocaril Oeste
1994: Argentina won 16-15 at Ferrocaril Oeste
1990: Scotland won 49-3 at Murrayfield

Prediction: This Pumas team does not look like losing. Argentina by ten points.

Argentina: 15 Martin Rodriguez, 14 Lucas Borges, 13 Gonzalo Tiesi, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Felipe Contepomi (c), 9 Alfredo Lalanne, 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Genaro Fessia, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Martin Scelzo, 2 Mario Ledesma, 1 Rodrigo Roncero
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Marcos Ayerza, 18 Mariano Galarza, 19 Alejandro Campos, 20 Agustin Figuerola, 21 Ignacio Mieres, 22 Lucas Gonzalez-Amorosino.

Scotland: 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Max Evans, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Rory Lawson, 8 John Barclay, 7 Johnnie Beattie, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Alastair Kellock (c), 4 Jim Hamilton, 3 Moray Low, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Geoff Cross, 18 Scott MacLeod, 19 Alasdair Strokosch, 20 Mike Blair, 21 Phil Godman, 22 Jim Thompson.

Date: Saturday, June 12
Venue: Tucuman
Kick-off: 15:45 (18:45 GMT)
Referee: Dave Pearson (England)
Assistant referees: Christophe Berdos (France), Stuart Dickinson (Australia)