Premiership, PRO12, Top 14: Play-off permutations
Who needs what going into the final weekend? Here is a breakdown for the Premiership, PRO12 and Top 14.
Fortunately all the relegation outcomes for this season are already settled, with Bristol dropping out of the Premiership and the axe falling on Grenoble and Bayonne in the Top 14.
Instead we can focus on the play-off and Champions Cup permutations across Europe's top three leagues.
Premiership
Qualified: Wasps, Exeter, Saracens
In the hunt: Leicester, Bath
Top six: Harlequins, Northampton
– Bath (58 points), who take on Sale Sharks away, need Leicester (62 points) to lose away at Worcester and then to win with a bonus point, with Leicester getting nothing at Sixways, in order to take the final spot in the top four.
– The battle for the final automatic Champions Cup qualification is also still on. Harlequins (51 points) can be caught by Northampton (48 points), if Saints get the win when the two sides face off at Franklin's Gardens.
Two bonus points for Quins in defeat would mean that they still finished ahead. But if Saints won with a BP too in that scenario, tying both teams on 53 points, then they would be separated by most wins in the season. Going into the weekend, Quins have 11, Saints have nine.
– Northampton will also be wary that defeat and a win for Gloucester (46 points) against Exeter would see the Cherry and Whites take seventh place and a spot in the Champions Cup 20th team play-offs.
– Saracens (77 points) meanwhile could overtake Wasps to finish in the top two with a win at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry, ensuring a home semi-final. They currently trail Wasps and Exeter (both on 79 points) by two points.
PRO12
Qualified: Leinster, Munster, Scarlets, Ospreys (almost)
In the hunt: Ulster
Champions Cup: Connacht, Treviso, Zebre
– Leinster, Munster and Scarlets are all safely though, as are the Ospreys (69 points) all but mathematically. The reason for that being that being if Ulster (64 points) were to win with a bonus point at home to Leinster and the Ospreys get nothing away at Scarlets, they would be tied on 69 points.
Then the two teams would be separated by matches won, both 14 if Ulster win, and then points difference. Here is where the Ospreys are comfortable, boasting 219 to Ulster's 146. Should it come to that then bar bizarre results in the two matches, the Ospreys will finish fourth
– Cardiff Blues (49 points) and Connacht (44 points) as things stand are set to compete in the Champions Cup 20th team play-offs.
The 'eighth' and 'ninth' placed PRO12 sides go through to the Champions Cup 20th team play-offs semi-finals, given seven teams have already qualified: Leinster, Munster, Scarlets, Ospreys, Ulster, Glasgow, and the winner of Zebre-Treviso.
– Finally, the battle for the Italian spot in the Champions Cup is still on between 11th and 12th placed Treviso and Zebre, both tied on 19 points. Zebre have home advantage for the winner-takes-all clash.
Top 14
Qualified: La Rochelle, Clermont, Montpellier, Toulon, Castres
In the hunt/Champions Cup: Stade Français, Racing 92, Pau, Lyon, Brive, Bordeaux-Bègles
– A remarkable Top 14 campaign comes down to this. La Rochelle (84 points) are first and guaranteed a semi-final spot and two weeks off. Clermont (74 points) and Montpellier (72 points) are still fighting it out for second, with Clermont hosting La Rochelle and Montpellier home to Stade Français.
Clermont boss Franck Azèma surely would have wanted to rest his top players before next week's Champions Cup final against Saracens, but having to play in the Barrages will have made him think again.
– Now it gets interesting. All of Stade Français, Racing 92, Pau, Lyon, Brive, Bordeaux-Bègles, ranked 6th to 11th, can take the final spot in the Barrages, with five points separating them.
Racing (58 points) sit in sixth for now ahead of Stade Français (58 points) courtesy of more wins. Then come Pau (57 points), Lyon (55 points), Brive (54 points) and Bordeaux-Bègles (53 points)
Racing host UBB, Stade are at Montpellier, Pau visit Toulon, Lyon head to Grenoble and Brive are at home to Castres. Seventh place also guarantees a spot in the Champions Cup 20th team play-offs (explained below).
Champions Cup 20th team play-offs semi-finals
MAY 19/20/21
Play-off 1: Premiership (seventh-ranked club) v PRO12 (ninth-ranked club)
Play-off 2: Top 14 (seventh-ranked club) v PRO12 (eighth-ranked club)
The Premiership and TOP 14 clubs will have home advantage
MAY 26/27/28
Play-off Final: winner Play-off 1 v winner Play-off 2
The winner of Play-off 1 will have home advantage