Planet Rugby’s seven bold predictions for 2022

As we are now in 2022, we have put our head on the block to bring you seven bold predictions that could happen in the upcoming 12 months.

The clue is in the title, so to speak, as while these calls are not nailed on they could well become reality by the time the year is out.

New Zealand’s struggles to continue

As we have consistently stated, we were never fans of the Ian Foster appointment but there appeared to be an improvement in 2021 as they claimed yet another Rugby Championship title. However, the end of that competition, as well as the northern hemisphere tour, exposed their limitations.

The early wins over quite frankly much weaker sides – and yes, that includes Australia – gave them a false sense of perspective as to where they were at. In their first clash with the Springboks, only a late Jordie Barrett penalty rescued a pretty mediocre performance before they succumbed to the same side a week later. Both teams were much better in that second encounter but the same issues remained for the All Blacks.

Foster’s men, and it’s been an issue since 2019, do not deal well with those well-drilled defences and very physical teams who manage to smother their attack. As a result, they fail to control the gain line and it puts them under pressure, leading to some uncharacteristic errors.

As rugby analyst Squidge put it, they are the second least imaginatively coached side in the world – behind Canada – and the All Blacks need to seriously think about how they approach the game this year. The issue is that we’re not sure this current set up will, or indeed, can do that, which leads us to think that they will lose more matches this season.

We reckon they should win the series against Ireland in July but that Andy Farrell’s men will take one of the Tests, while the Springboks will fancy their chances in the Rugby Championship. And there’s the European tour, which will again be a challenge, with a clash against England already on the schedule.

Wales’ luck to run out

Wayne Pivac’s men were very good in the Six Nations and came so close to claiming a Grand Slam, but even they have to admit a lot went for them in 2021. Dodgy refereeing decisions helped against England and they defeated Ireland and Scotland when their opponents had players sent off. Certainly at Murrayfield, Zander Fagerson’s dismissal had a huge impact in the end result, but nevertheless it is a credit to the Welsh that they were able to take advantage.

That red card theme rather continued throughout the year, including in the draw over Argentina. We will, though, discount the July series, as their depth just isn’t as strong as the likes of Ireland, England and France, but they were disappointing in the Autumn Nations Series.

Wales were thrashed by the All Blacks in game one, although they were missing several players, before there was an improvement against South Africa. However, the conditions were probably a leveller and the Springboks controlled the set-piece battle without putting their opponents away until late on.

And then came their victories, where they again benefited from red cards for Fiji and Australia. With both of those games, you wonder whether they would have won the matches without players being sent off and it makes us doubt their credentials in 2022.

Without Alun Wyn Jones for the Six Nations, there is a huge void in leadership and in the second-row, while they just lack the firepower in comparison to the bigger nations, especially up front. It could be a difficult season for Pivac and his charges.

Andre Esterhuizen to break up South Africa’s centre partnership

We were staggered when Esterhuizen revealed following Harlequins’ victory over Gloucester that he hadn’t been contacted by Springbok head coach Jacques Nienaber. The centre has been pivotal to Quins’ resurgence, playing a crucial role in the Londoners’ Premiership triumph, and the 27-year-old has continued that form this season.

The former Sharks powerhouse is one of the form players in Europe and surely can’t be ignored for too much longer by the South African management. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him usurp Damian de Allende and become their first choice centre, despite the Munterman’s outstanding displays for the Boks in 2021.

They are similar players and are strong defensively, both in terms of reading the game and their ability over the ball, but Esterhuizen has a slightly better skill set. His ability to off-load out of the tackle and make good decisions on the gain line could help develop the South African attack.

De Allende and Lukhanyo Am have formed an outstanding partnership but, if there is a player that can break that up, the Quins centre is certainly the one. He will almost certainly get an opportunity at some point this year and from there it is about taking that chance which, given his form, is highly likely.

Exeter Chiefs to miss the Premiership play-offs

For several months now we’ve been waiting for Exeter to click into gear, but they just keep trundling along with any discernible improvement in performance. They were better against Bristol Bears but they certainly weren’t clinical in the opposition 22, something which used to be the superpower.

With the alteration in the laws, which means players now can’t bind before contact, the Chiefs haven’t been as effective in the ‘red zone’. They also have to be wary of being held up over the line, as that results in a dropout rather than a scrum to the attacking scrum, so these small changes appear to have hampered the Devonians.

As a result, they find themselves in fifth position in the Premiership and behind Leicester Tigers, Saracens, Harlequins and Gloucester. There are still plenty of games to go on a run and get themselves in the top-four, and indeed they are only two points off the Cherry and Whites, but they haven’t been anywhere near their best for a while now.

We therefore question whether they will find their fluency in 2022 and will instead miss out on the play-offs for the first time since 2015. The top-four all look stronger at this point in time while Northampton Saints and even Sale Sharks, despite their poor start to the campaign, have the ability to be in the end-of-season shake-up.

France to win the World Cup

After the women’s World Cup was delayed due to Covid-19, it will finally take place in New Zealand in October. England will go in as favourites following a stunning run of form, which has seen them claim 18 successive victories, including several wins over their main rivals.

There is no doubt that they are the best team in the world at the moment but there is ultimately not much between them and France, who should vie for the trophy when the final comes around in November.

Although there is time for the hosts to get back on track after their awful 2021, which saw heavy defeats to both of Europe’s best, it would be some renaissance if the defending champions were to get back to that 2017 level. After concentrating on Sevens in 2020 and the issues caused by the pandemic, they have been left behind by England and France.

Interestingly, the two big Six Nations sides have been named in the same pool and that will certainly give an indicator as to which is the in-form team. However, although the Red Roses are slightly ahead, we think that the French are building nicely and will take their first world title.

Crusaders’ Super Rugby dominance to end

Some may claim that this has already happened, considering the Blues’ trans-Tasman success, but the big competition in 2021 was Super Rugby Aotearoa and once again the Christchurch outfit were too strong for their New Zealand rivals.

The format has once again changed for this season with Super Rugby Pacific being set up, bringing the New Zealand and Australian franchises back together and also adding Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika to the 12-team league.

Considering the results in last year’s trans-Tasman tournament, the Aussies shouldn’t be a threat, but the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Highlanders and particularly the Blues will seek to take advantage of the Crusaders’ departures.

Scott Robertson may have brought in Pablo Matera to strengthen their back-row, but they have lost some key squad players that played a big role in their dominance, with the likes of Michael Alaalatoa, Luke Romano and Whetu Douglas leaving.

The head coach is a genius and, if there is someone that can manage that upheaval, it is Robertson but, for the first time in a while, they look weaker up front. With Joe Moody and Codie Taylor also getting older and not performing well for the All Blacks, the other sides will sense an opportunity to end the dominance of the Crusaders.

Blitzboks to win every World Rugby Sevens Series title

There may well be nine tournaments in all this season but South Africa have been so dominant recently that it is not inconceivable that they will win every one. Logic dictates that they will have to fail at some point but, with New Zealand not currently taking part and Fiji going through a transition period, the Blitzboks are by far the best team in world.

They have already succeeded twice during the 2021/22 season, claiming both titles in Dubai, and have an excellent all-round squad. Neil Powell is doing an excellent job and they will be favourite in every tournament they go in to. Without the threat of New Zealand, South Africa certainly have the opportunity to do something unprecedented in Sevens.