Opinion: Welsh whitewash key to Springbok evolution ahead of Rugby Championship

Jon Cardinelli 11 Apr 2022 10:49 AM

Jacques Nienaber’s selections and strategies for a crucial Rugby Championship campaign as well as important fixtures against Ireland, France and England will be shaped by the outcome of the three Tests against Wales in July, writes Jon Cardinelli.

The Boks will have plenty to prove in 2022. While they were deserved winners of the series against the British & Irish Lions, and while they were the stronger side across the two matches against the All Blacks, they did not perform to their potential throughout the 2021 Test season.

Nienaber broached the subject while addressing the South African media in a virtual press conference on Sunday. While he was appointed in January 2020, Nienaber coached the Boks in a Test match for the first time in July 2021. Preparations for the 2021 season were hampered by Covid-19 setbacks, and for much of the year, the coaches and players relied on a strategy that had served them well in 2019.

Lay the platform for 2023 Rugby World Cup

They ticked some big boxes in 2021, by beating the Lions and All Blacks, and by ending an eight-year drought in Cardiff. It’s in 2022, however, where they will lay the platform for their 2023 World Cup campaign.

In a sense, the Boks are back where they started in 2020 when Nienaber was first appointed.

Two years ago, Nienaber spoke about using the home Tests against Scotland and Georgia as an opportunity to build momentum for the subsequent Rugby Championship. He outlined his goals to develop the squad and the Boks’ playing style, while pushing for positive results.

In 2022, Nienaber’s Boks will approach the three-Test series against Wales in the same manner. If they realise their objective in taking an unassailable 2-0 lead, then Nienaber will rotate the squad for the final game of the series.

If all goes to plan, the Boks will head into the Rugby Championship with three wins and some much-needed confidence.

Nienaber should receive some answers about his first-choice combinations over the first two Tests. He will have the opportunity to play a few fringe players in the third game – and develop his squad with the future in mind.

Of course, everything could change if the Boks lose the first or second Test. As Nienaber recently admitted, the last thing the coaching staff wants is for the series to become a dogfight and for the third game to become a ‘final’.

In short, there’s no room for complacency – regardless of Wales’ poor form in the recent Six Nations. While the Boks could set a strong platform via a series victory this July, they could make history for all the wrong reasons via a series defeat.

They don’t want to become the first Bok side in the professional era to lose a series in South Africa to one of the home nations. Needless to say, if the result of that series is still in the balance after two games, Nienaber will abandon all plans to rotate the squad and field his strongest available side in an attempt to win the third match.

Nienaber has spoken about the fact that 17 Tests remain before the 2023 World Cup. The Boks are building towards that tournament.

In the short term, however, they are building towards the double-header against the All Blacks in August. If they win well against Wales, they will go into those matches against New Zealand – which will be staged in Nelspruit and Johannesburg – as favourites. That mini-series promises to be one of the highlights of the rugby year.

The Boks must realise that a change to the Rugby Championship format has presented them with a rare opportunity.

If they win the consecutive home matches against the All Blacks, they will win the Freedom Cup for the first time since 2009. Back-to-back wins against New Zealand could set them up to win the Rugby Championship title.

It will be interesting to see how Nienaber manages his squad across the Rugby Championship. If the Boks win the mini-series against the All Blacks, more of the fringe players may receive game time in fixtures against Argentina and Australia. That calculated gamble may yield major dividends ahead of the tour to Europe.

Nienaber can’t rely on the same starting XV to beat Ireland, France and England over a four-week period. And by November, some of his first-choice players may be starting to tire after a long and taxing season.

While a first-choice combination may be tasked with winning the series against Wales and the double-header against the All Blacks, a larger squad will be needed to clinch the Rugby Championship and to win the big Tests in the northern hemisphere.

Perhaps successes against Wales and the All Blacks will provide the Boks with more freedom to experiment. While they will be desperate to beat France – the form side in world rugby – they should be aiming to develop with the 2023 World Cup in mind.

Everything hinges on a strong start to the season, though. If they don’t make use of home advantage in their first five Tests, they will be on the back foot for the next eight.

A poor return in the series against Wales followed by twin losses to the All Blacks could result in a dramatic change in plans. In that scenario, the Boks would travel to Australia needing two wins to save face – a tall order given that they haven’t beaten the Wallabies in Australia since 2013.

The worst-case scenario would see the Boks travelling to Europe needing four wins to salvage their season. To put that requirement into perspective, the Boks haven’t completed a clean sweep of wins in Europe since 2013.

Unless they have some momentum and form, the Boks are not going to win in Dublin for the first time in 10 years, they’re not going to beat France, and they’re certainly not going to beat England in a game staged outside the international window.

This group of Boks has already won a World Cup and a Lions series, and has already taken its place in history among the greats. The team’s performances and results in 2022, however, will determine whether they travel to the 2023 World Cup as favourites or dark horses.

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