World Rugby rankings preview: How All Blacks could replace Springboks at summit while Wales eye two-year first
The All Blacks could return to number one if South Africa lose to Scotland by more than 15 points in Pretoria.
World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for this weekend’s second rounds of the Nations Championship and Nations Cup as teams lock horns again.
It was a thrilling opening Saturday in the southern hemisphere and Cardiff as the former tournament kicked off, while the Nations Cup was equally dramatic last week.
Round Two’s Nations Championship matches kick off with New Zealand v Italy before Australia host France and then Japan take on Ireland in Australia in a busy start.
The focus then shifts to Liverpool where Fiji host England before it’s South Africa up against Scotland and the action concludes in Argentina with Los Pumas v Wales.
In the Nations Cup the weekend Tests are Uruguay v Romania, Samoa v Georgia, Tonga v Spain, Chile v Hong Kong China, USA v Zimbabwe and Canada v Portugal.
Permutation highlights
New Zealand cannot improve their rating with victory over Italy due to the 13.73-point differential between the teams. Despite this, the All Blacks could still return to number one if South Africa lose to Scotland by more than 15 points in Pretoria. However, a first-ever loss to Italy will see New Zealand replaced in second by Ireland if they beat Japan in Australia. An historic victory for Italy will send them up to ninth if Fiji also lose to England.
South Africa can only gain a maximum of 0.03 rating points for beating Scotland, a consequence of the 9.83-point differential between the teams. The Springboks will surrender top spot to New Zealand if they lose by more than 15 points and the All Blacks beat Italy. A beaten Scotland could lose the two places they gained on the back of beat Argentina last weekend with wins for England and Los Pumas, providing the latter beat Wales by more than 15 points. However, a victory over the world champions and loss for France in Australia will take Scotland to a new high of fourth. Third is possible, but that would require Scotland to win by more than 15 points, France lose and Ireland to lose by the same margin to Japan.
France cannot improve on fourth place in their own right, they also need Ireland to lose to Japan on Australian soil with one of the margins by more than 15 points. Les Bleus are unable to catch New Zealand in second even if the All Blacks suffer a firstever loss to Italy. Australia will only fall if a defeat is combined with a Fiji victory over England in Liverpool. It is possible for a victorious Australia to climb two places to sixth above a beaten Argentina and England. A loss for France will be accompanied by a fall if Scotland win in South Africa, while a draw will be enough for Scotland to reach a new high of fourth if Les Bleus lose by more than 15 points.
Japan will move into the world’s top 10 for the first time since July 2023 if they win and Italy and Wales fail to beat New Zealand and Argentina. Defeat for Japan could still see them climb a place to 11th if Wales lose to Los Pumas. Ireland cannot improve their rating with victory due to the 12.90-point differential between the teams, however they can still climb to second if New Zealand lose to Italy. A beaten Ireland will only lose third spot if France defeat Australia and the margin in at least one of the matches exceeds 15 points. Ireland can drop an additional place if Scotland beat hosts South Africa with both games decided by margins of more than 15 points.
England can only improve on sixth place with victory over lower-ranked Fiji if Scotland above them lose to South Africa. Fourth is possible for Steve Borthwick’s men if Australia beat France by more than 15 points in Brisbane. A victorious Fiji will swap places with Australia if the Wallabies lose, but they can’t quite catch England this weekend with a win by more than 15 points leaving just 0.06 rating points between the teams. Fiji can go as high as seventh with such a win, providing Argentina lose by the same margin at home to Wales. The Pacific Islanders will surrender ninth place if they lose and Italy beat New Zealand with Wales also able to jump them with victory by more than 15 points over Argentina. England will drop two places to eighth if they are lose and Argentina and Australia win.
Argentina can regain the two places they lost following defeat to Scotland if they beat Wales by more than 15 points and the Scots and England lose. If England win then Argentina will only climb one place in the above scenario. Wales will drop one place to 12th if they lose by such a margin, swapping places with Japan even if the Brave Blossoms are beaten by Ireland. Wales will return to the top 10 – for the first time since July 2024 – if they beat Los Pumas and Italy fail to beat New Zealand. It is possible for Wales to also leapfrog Fiji in ninth, but that would require both they and England to win by more than 15 points.
Switching the focus to the Nations Cup, Georgia will remain in 13th whatever happens in their encounter with Samoa.
Uruguay, Portugal and Chile can only make marginal gains if they are victorious against the lower-ranked Romania, Canada and Hong Kong China respectively.
Romania could become the lowest ranked team in the tournament if they lose and Hong Kong China, Canada and Zimbabwe all cause upsets.
Dave Rennie’s ‘interesting’ verdict on Nations Championship which has ‘got a bit of merit’
Elsewhere, Samoa, Spain and Tonga could all climb as high as 14th with wins depending on the margin of victory and other results around them.
Hong Kong China could equal their all-time high of 21st with victory over Chile, the side they will face again at the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
Finally, USA won’t get any reward for beating Zimbabwe in the first meeting between the sides, but defeat could see them drop up to five places and lift the Sables to a new high of their own depending on other results.
NEW ZEALAND (2) 91.04 v ITALY (10) 77.31
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – New Zealand 91.04, Italy 77.31 (No change)
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – New Zealand 91.04, Italy 77.31 (No change)
Draw – New Zealand 90.04, Italy 78.31
Italy win by 15 points or less – New Zealand 89.04, Italy 79.31
Italy win by more than 15 points – New Zealand 88.04, Italy 80.31
AUSTRALIA (8) 81.28 v FRANCE (4) 86.74
Australia win by 15 points or less – Australia 82.83, France 85.20
Australia win by more than 15 points – Australia 83.60, France 84.42
Draw – Australia 81.83, France 86.20
France win by 15 points or less – Australia 80.83, France 87.20
France win by more than 15 points – Australia 80.60, France 87.42
JAPAN (12) 76.42 v IRELAND (3) 89.32
Japan win by 15 points or less – Japan 78.42, Ireland 87.32
Japan win by more than 15 points – Japan 79.42, Ireland 86.32
Draw – Japan 77.42, Ireland 88.32
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Japan 76.42, Ireland 89.32 (No change)
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Japan 76.42, Ireland 89.32 (No change)
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FIJI (9) 79.53 v ENGLAND (6) 83.91
Fiji win by 15 points or less – Fiji 80.97, England 82.47
Fiji win by more than 15 points – Fiji 81.69, England 81.75
Draw – Fiji 79.97, England 83.47
England win by 15 points or less – Fiji 78.97, England 84.47
England win by more than 15 points – Fiji 78.69, England 84.75
SOUTH AFRICA (1) 93.94 v SCOTLAND (5) 84.11
South Africa win by 15 points or less – South Africa 93.96, Scotland 84.09
South Africa win by more than 15 points – South Africa 93.97, Scotland 84.08
Draw – South Africa 92.96, Scotland 85.09
Scotland win by 15 points or less – South Africa 91.96, Scotland 86.09
Scotland win by more than 15 points – South Africa 90.97, Scotland 87.08
ARGENTINA (7) 83.77 v WALES (11) 76.67
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Argentina 84.06, Wales 76.38
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Argentina 84.20, Wales 76.24
Draw – Argentina 83.06, Wales 77.38
Wales win by 15 points or less – Argentina 82.06, Wales 78.38
Wales win by more than 15 points – Argentina 81.20, Wales 79.24