World Rugby rankings: History beckons for Italy as Ireland, England and France could drop
Italy's Louis Lynagh and Marco Riccioni celebrate a victory over Scotland and the latest World Rugby rankings.
Ahead of round two of the 2026 Six Nations, here’s how the weekend’s action can impact the World Rugby rankings.
The opening round of action already influenced the standings with France and Ireland swapping rankings places, the former now sitting in fourth behind South Africa, New Zealand and England, respectively.
Italy’s clutch victory in Rome also saw them move into ninth position with Scotland falling to tenth whilst the result between England and Wales had no impact on the standings or ranking points.
Here’s how this weekend’s results could change the World Rugby rankings.
Six Nations round two permutations
Due to the difference in the rating points before home advantage is considered, both France and Ireland cannot improve their rankings when they face off against Wales and Italy, respectively.
That means that if Steve Borthwick’s men finally end their drought at Murrayfield on Saturday, they will retain third place in the standings. A defeat of any kind would see them slip below France into fourth place, provided that Les Bleus beat Wales in Cardiff on Sunday.
England cannot drop lower than that, as a Scottish win by more than 15 points would see them lose 2.55 points, which would still leave them 0.25 rating points ahead of Ireland – if Andy Farrell’s men beat the Azzurri.
Borthwick’s charges will earn 0.45 points for a comprehensive win at Murrayfield and 0.30 for a closer victory; the former will see them close the gap on New Zealand in second to 0.47 rating points.
While they cannot boost their rating points with a win over Italy, Ireland can reclaim fourth place from France in one of two scenarios: if they draw and France lose by more than 15 points, or if they win and France are beaten.
However, a first defeat to the Azzurri in the Six Nations era will see Ireland fall another place to sixth with Argentina the beneficiaries.
A win for Gonzalo Quesada’s men will lift them above both Fiji and Australia, but could also take them to a record high of seventh if Scotland do not beat England. The Azzurri will climb to seventh regardless if they win by more than 15 points.
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Scotland can surge up three places to seventh if they beat England by more than 15 points and Italy win by a smaller margin in Dublin. Wales cannot improve on 11th position whether they win, lose or draw against France.
Onto the Rugby Europe Championship where Georgia, Portugal and Spain cannot improve their ratings with victories over the lower-ranked Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland. The Lelos will remain 13th, whatever happens in Amsterdam, but Spain and Portugal will each fall one place if beaten with USA and Samoa, respectively, the beneficiaries.
Germany will return to top 30 of the rankings if they can follow their upset of Romania with another by beating Portugal.
Ireland v Italy prediction: Andy Farrell’s men to avoid 29-year first in Dublin ‘dogfight’
IRELAND (5) 86.81 v ITALY (9) 79.81
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 86.81, Italy 79.81 (No change)
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 86.81, Italy 79.81 (No change)
Draw – Ireland 85.81, Italy 80.81
Italy win by 15 points or less – Ireland 84.81, Italy 81.81
Italy win by more than 15 points – Ireland 83.81, Italy 82.81
SCOTLAND (10) 79.40 v ENGLAND (3) 89.41
Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 81.10, England 87.71
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 81.95, England 86.86
Draw – Scotland 80.10, England 88.71
England win by 15 points or less – Scotland 79.10, England 89.71
England win by more than 15 points – Scotland 78.95, England 89.86
WALES (11) 74.23 v FRANCE (4) 88.40
Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales 76.23, France 86.40
Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 77.23, France 85.40
Draw – Wales 75.23, France 87.40
France win by 15 points or less – Wales 74.23, France 88.40 (No change)
France win by more than 15 points – Wales 74.23, France 88.40 (No change)
Latest World Rugby Rankings
(As of 09/02/2026)
1 South Africa 93.94
2 New Zealand 90.33
3 England 89.41
4 France 88.40
5 Ireland 86.81
6 Argentina 84.97
7 Australia 81.53
8 Fiji 81.14
9 Italy 79.81
10 Scotland 79.40
11 Wales 74.23
12 Japan 74.09
13 Georgia 73.18
14 Uruguay 69.19
15 Spain 69.16
16 USA 68.26
17 Chile 66.72
18 Tonga 66.66
19 Portugal 66.53
20 Samoa 66.43
