World Rugby rankings: All Blacks risk a fall against Springboks as Wallabies and Pumas battle it out for crucial World Cup spot
Springboks captain Siya Kolisi and the latest World Rugby Rankings.
The All Blacks and Springboks will battle it out for the Freedom Cup and the number one World Rugby ranking when the two teams collide at Sky Stadium in the Rugby Championship.
South Africa surrendered top spot when they fell to a defeat at the hands of Australia at Ellis Park and slipped even further down after failing to end the All Blacks’ unbeaten run at Eden Park last week.
However, they can usurp both Ireland and New Zealand this weekend, but will need to repeat their 2018 heroics in the Cake Tin to do so.
With the help of World Rugby, we take a look at how the weekend’s Rugby Championship and Pacific Nations Cup action can influence the world rankings.
World rankings permutations
For Rassie Erasmus’ men to return to the summit of the rankings, the outcome is straightforward: beat the All Blacks. The Springboks boss has rolled the dice with his selections, backing an incredibly green backline, and if the youngsters manage a real upset and beat the mighty All Blacks in their own backyard by a margin of more than 15 points, then third-ranked South Africa will trade places with New Zealand at the top.
A smaller margin of victory will see Ireland drop to third, New Zealand to second and see the world champions return to the summit.
On the flip side, a second win over the Springboks in as many weeks will increase the All Blacks’ advantage at the top of the rankings to at least 2.02 points. If Scott Robertson’s charges defeat South Africa by more than 15 points, they will open up a lead of 2.27 ratings points at the top of the standings, while the Boks cannot finish the weekend lower than their current third-place ranking.
In the event of a stalemate, the outcome of the last meeting between these two sides in Wellington, South Africa will move into second place ahead of Ireland.
In the earlier Rugby Championship kick-off, Australia cannot improve on sixth place as they will only gain a maximum of 0.67 rating points for a second win in as many weeks over Argentina, which is not enough to catch England. However, defeat will see Australia drop to seventh with Los Pumas replacing them in what will be band one for the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 draw in December. Los Pumas cannot drop from seventh position.
In the Pacific Nations Cup, Fiji cannot improve their rating points regardless of the margin of victory over Canada, but the North Americans could jump two places into 22nd, moving ahead of Belgium and Hong Kong China, if they produce a shock victory in the semi-finals. The Fijians would remain ninth if they are defeated.
Eddie Jones’ Japan team are unable to gain enough points to catch Wales in 12th even if they beat Tonga by more than 15 points in the other semi-final. However, Samoa can replace Japan in 13th if they win their fifth-place play-off with USA – which would secure qualification for the 2027 Rugby World Cup – and the Brave Blossoms are beaten, providing that one of the winning margins is more than 15 points.
Tonga must beat Japan by more than 15 points to leapfrog Spain and move up to 15th, this would become 14th for the ‘Ikale Tahi if Samoa lose by the same margin to the USA. The Eagles will climb at least two places, above both Portugal and Uruguay, to 17th if they beat Samoa and secure qualification for RWC 2027. If Tonga also lose, then USA can gain another place with a win by more than 15 points.
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AUSTRALIA (6) 85.40 v ARGENTINA (7) 82.84
Australia win by 15 points or less – Australia 85.85, Argentina 82.40
Australia win by more than 15 points – Australia 86.07, Argentina 82.17
Draw – Australia 84.85, Argentina 83.40
Argentina win by 15 points or less – Australia 83.85, Argentina 84.40
Argentina win by more than 15 points – Australia 83.07, Argentina 85.17
NEW ZEALAND (1) 91.35 v SOUTH AFRICA (3) 89.38
New Zealand win by 15 points or less – New Zealand 91.85, South Africa 88.88
New Zealand win by more than 15 points – New Zealand 92.10, South Africa 88.62
Draw – New Zealand 90.85, South Africa 89.88
South Africa win by 15 points or less – New Zealand 89.85, South Africa 90.88
South Africa win by more than 15 points – New Zealand 89.10, South Africa 91.62
SAMOA (14) 70.72 v USA (19) 65.57
Samoa win by 15 points or less – Samoa 71.51, USA 64.79
Samoa win by more than 15 points – Samoa 71.90, USA 64.40
USA win by 15 points or less – Samoa 69.51, USA 66.79
USA win by more than 15 points – Samoa 68.90, USA 67.40
TONGA (16) 66.87 v JAPAN (13) 73.40
Tonga win by 15 points or less – Tonga 68.52, Japan 71.75
Tonga win by more than 15 points – Tonga 69.35, Japan 70.92
Japan win by 15 points or less – Tonga 66.52, Japan 73.75
Japan win by more than 15 points – Tonga 66.35, Japan 73.92
FIJI (9) 80.86 v CANADA (24) 59.52
Fiji win by 15 points or less – Fiji 80.06, Canada 59.52 (No change)
Fiji win by more than 15 points – Fiji 80.06, Canada 59.52 (No change)
Canada win by 15 points or less – Fiji 78.86, Canada 61.52
Canada win by more than 15 points – Fiji 77.86, Canada 62.52
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Latest World Rugby rankings
As of 12/09/2025
1 New Zealand 91.35
2 Ireland 89.83
3 South Africa 89.38
4 France 87.82
5 England 87.64
6 Australia 85.40
7 Argentina 82.84
8 Scotland 81.57
9 Fiji 80.56
10 Italy 77.77
11 Georgia 74.69
12 Wales 74.05
13 Japan 73.40
14 Samoa 70.72
15 Spain 69.12
16 Tonga 66.87
17 Uruguay 66.59
18 Portugal 66.44
19 USA 65.57
20 Chile 64.76
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