World rankings: How the Springboks could lose top spot, all-time lows await All Blacks, Wallabies in defeat
The latest world ranking permutations ahead of the weekend's action.
South Africa put top spot on the World Rugby rankings on the line in Durban on Saturday against Ireland while the All Blacks risk falling to an equal all-time low.
There could be another shake-up in the top 10 this weekend, with plenty of spots up for grabs as teams eye a move upwards.
Wales will be looking to make a swift return to the top 10 after falling out of the bracket for the first time since the rankings were introduced but to do so; they will need to end an eight-game losing streak.
The clash between the top two ranked sides in the world, South Africa and Ireland, will also influence the rankings, as will the clash in Auckland between the All Blacks and England.
World rankings permutations
Starting at the top, the Springboks are set to retain their spot at the summit of the world rankings unless Ireland claim a victory by more than 15 points over the back-to-back World Cup winners. A win of a smaller margin would leave Ireland trailing the Springboks by 0.99 ratings points.
A defeat could see Ireland drop to as low as third, but only if a loss to the Springboks is paired with an All Blacks win over England.
A win for Rassie Erasmus’ men would see them strengthen their stronghold on the top spot to more than five points, depending on the margin and outcome of the clash at Eden Park between New Zealand and England.
The worst case scenario for Ireland is third place as France cannot overtake them even with a hammering victory of Los Pumas in Argentina, as they can only earn a maximum of 0.70 rating points.
France’s midweek victory against Uruguay did not earn them any rating points due to the 21.10 points difference between the two nations before home weighting was factored in.
However, if Les Bleus fall to a defeat to Argentina in the second Test match and England becomes the first team in 30 years to defeat the All Blacks at Eden Park, then Steve Borthwick’s side will move into fourth place and France drop to fifth.
If England beat the All Blacks by more than 15 points, then they will jump to third place. If that result is paired with a France-Argentina draw, then New Zealand will drop down to a record-equalling low of fifth.
In numbers: The All Blacks’ INSANE unbeaten run at Eden Park since 1994
England will have to settle for fourth if they do win well and France come away with a victory in Buenos Aires.
Meanwhile, Scotland cannot improve on their sixth-place ranking regardless of the margin of victory over the USA, but they can fall in the rankings if they lose and Argentina beats France. A USA-Scotland stalemate and a Pumas win of more than 15 would also see the Scots switch places with Argentina.
If Wales end their eight-Test losing streak in Melbourne on Saturday, they will return to the top 10 after dropping to an all-time low of 11th after their defeat last week. That result would see Australia drop to their all-time low of 11th.
Even in defeat, Wales cannot fall to a new all-time low as Japan are unable to overtake them.
World Rugby rankings as of 11 July 2024
1 South Africa 94.86
2 Ireland 90.37
3 New Zealand 90.12
4 France 88.49
5 England 85.66
6 Scotland 82.82
7 Argentina 80.10
8 Australia 78.15
9 Italy 77.99
10 Fiji 77.44
11 Wales 76.58
12 Japan 74.04
13 Samoa 73.65
14 Georgia 72.95
15 Tonga 71.57
16 Portugal 70.28
17 Uruguay 67.39
18 USA 66.01
19 Spain 64.37
20 Romania 63.59
