Where France are the ‘most lethal’ team in the world as Paul Gustard issues ‘dicing with danger’ warning to England ahead of ‘future-defining’ game
Paul Gustard previews the Six Nations clash between France and England.
Paul Gustard does not deal in vague optimism.
The former England defence coach, now head coach at Stade Français, a man who built the defensive system that took Eddie Jones’s side to a Grand Slam in 2016 and a World Cup final three years later, has spent the days before England’s Round Five clash with France in Paris working through the detail with the kind of forensic clarity that made him one of the most respected coaching minds in the game. When Gustard talks about this fixture, you listen.
And what he says is both bracingly honest and strategically precise; England can win in Paris, but only if they execute, only if they score, and only if they understand exactly what France will bring when the game opens up.
“I think it’s gonna be a low-scoring game,” Gustard said, “but when France go, they go very, very fast, and they stay quick. The athletes they’ve got, the pace some of their players carry, you’re talking express pace. We’re talking 36, 38 kilometres an hour. You’ve got some real back three gas coming your way and you’ve got to deal with it.”
Central concern
That back three, with Thomas Ramos at full-back alongside two of the most dangerous wide men in world rugby in Theo Attissogbe and Louis Bielle-Biarrey, is the central concern running through Gustard’s entire analysis. But his sharpest focus is reserved for what England do when they get to the other end of the pitch.
“France are gonna score points,” he said flatly. “Probably 20-plus. So we have to score over 20 points to win this game, and we can’t just be getting threes from kicks. We need to score tries inside the 22.”
It is the most direct diagnosis of England’s problem in this Six Nations, stated without caveat or political softening. England have been getting into the 22 but they’ve not been finishing. In a game at the Stade de France against a team capable of punishing every unforced error, the former Quins director of rugby believes that inefficiency becomes potentially terminal.
Gustard’s assessment of the scrum gives England genuine optimism. “Statistically, they’ve got the most dominant scrum in the competition,” he said, though the qualifier came quickly. “It doesn’t always look like that. You’d probably argue Italy had the most dominant singular scrum performance against Ireland and that France have scored more phase one tries than anyone else. But England were more dominant in the scrum against Ireland than the penalties and calls reflected.”
His point is simple; England should have an edge there, and they need to use it. Not just for the collision and the penalty count, but for what it creates. “With Ollivon and Dupont, France have the opportunity to move the ball away quickly from the scrum.
“They’re fast enough, intelligent enough, and good enough to have plans in place to move around it. If England are dominant up front, that limits those options.”
The lineout tells a different story for France right now. Gustard was pointed in his post-mortem of the Scotland defeat. “The set-piece fundamentals weren’t there. The lineout was ineffective, they couldn’t put pressure on Scotland’s lineout the way you’d normally hope for from the French team. And the defence was awful.” He paused. “They got opened up easy enough.”
There is a rumour circulating, which Gustard acknowledged cautiously, that Shaun Edwards has been sidelined for much of the past eight to 10 months. If true, it would explain a great deal about the fraying at the edges of France’s defensive structure that the Scotland game so ruthlessly exposed.
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For England, the selection of Ollie Chessum at six is significant in Gustard’s reading. “Picking Chessum gives you more lineout options. With the other options in the back-row, you were probably lacking that variation against France. You need the extra jumper because of the four general jumpers France carry (Gustard concedes Emmanuel Meafou does not act as a jumper). Chessum gives you a little more opportunity to contest and a little more variation in what you can do with your lineout.” It is the kind of selection nuance that rarely surfaces in the mainstream conversation about England’s back-row, where the tactical dimension of the lineout is too often secondary to carrying and defensive profiles.
And England’s back-row will need to be at its very best, because Gustard is unequivocal about the quality of what lines up against them. “The balance of the French back-row is exceptional,” he said. “The world is finally waking up to Charles Ollivon. He is a back five forward with a try strike rate at elite Test level that you associate with international wings, not locks and back-rowers. He is world-class, already a French great, and he is only going to get more dangerous as this season goes on.”
Alongside Ollivon, Gustard reserved particular admiration for François Cros, a player he described in terms that will resonate with anyone who watched England through their most dominant years. “Cros is the glue player that every great team needs. He is a French Richard Hill. He does not always get the headlines, he does not always get the credit, but he makes everything around him function. He is world-class and, like Ollivon, already a French great, and teams that underestimate him pay for it.” Hill was the heartbeat of England’s World Cup-winning side in 2003, the player Clive Woodward once described as irreplaceable. The comparison is not made lightly by a man of Gustard’s pedigree.
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On France’s front-row, Gustard identified a structural problem that has been building since Uini Atonio’s retirement left a significant hole at tighthead. “That’s a rather large-sized hole,” he smiled. Georges-Henri Colombe, the man who might have been groomed as the long-term answer, has not fully established himself. “That should have been the one they invested more time in. But he’d been lost for a period and his fitness isn’t anywhere near.” France’s front-row still has good connection and cohesion across the unit, he acknowledged, but the depth at tighthead is not what it was, and England’s scrummagers will know it.
The bench carries its own strategic logic. Henry Pollock brings an up-tempo dimension that the game cannot easily plan for and Chandler Cunningham-South is the man to close out a tight game, composed and physical in a different register entirely. “You’ve got two pretty impressive emerging international players,” Gustard said. His one caveat concerned Pollock’s match fitness. “He hasn’t been playing a lot of rugby, has come back from injury. Playing 25 minutes here and there as he builds up towards more game time is probably not a bad thing right now.”
Gustard had considerable praise for Ben Earl, noting the quality of his work around the scrum, his capacity to pick up and carry at the base, and the intelligence of his read at the breakdown. “Big, strong, good hands, and an instinct for the right moment,” he said. “He might not be the classic shape of an eight, but statistically, he’s the best around at the moment by some distance.”
The kicking game
What brings everything together in Gustard’s analysis is the kicking game. He is not here to debate England’s style of play but is categorical, though, about the consequences of executing it badly; “That’s their choice,” he said. “But it’s dicing with danger; if they’re not on the money with their kick strategy, not landing kicks in the right areas, then France have probably the most lethal back three in transition in world rugby right now. Ramos is arguably the world’s best full-back, or certainly in that conversation. He’s got the confidence to make a mistake and go again.
“With Ramos, with those two wingers, and with a young man like Tom Roebuck in the England backfield having to deal with that pace coming at him, you can really open yourself up to a very difficult time.”
The emotional backdrop is sharp and specific. France, who had built a Grand Slam in their own minds after the opening two rounds, have had the shape of their campaign altered by Scotland’s extraordinary 50-40 victory in Round Four.
England, beaten by Italy in a result that sent shockwaves through the rugby press, arrive in Paris with a point to prove and a game plan that must hold up from the first whistle.
“It’s a huge game,” Gustard said. “For France, it’s at home, it’s a must-win, and a definition of the Galthie era v2. For England, it’s the kind of game that defines your future and your planning.”
His final word was unambiguous. “We’ve got to make sure that when we kick, we kick well. And when we get into the 22, we have got to score points.”
France will score on Saturday, Gustard is certain of it. England don’t need to be perfect in Paris, but in the set-piece, in the air, and above all inside the 22, they need to be perfect enough if they’re to have any chance of righting the wrongs of Rome.