Wallabies: Why the Joe Schmidt tenure was a ‘failure’ and the statement that ‘doesn’t wash’
Wallabies head coach Joe Schmidt celebrates win over Italy.
Rugby Australia has done a reasonable job celebrating the Wallabies brand and selling the green and gold dream over the past 12 months.
Three sold-out venues for the July Nations Championship fixtures, including the 52,000 seater in Brisbane just nights after a State of Origin clash, speaks to the strong job the governing body did getting people through the turnstiles. The strong crowds came off the back of a mega Lions series in 2025, where cashed-up punters came down under after the previous tour in South Africa was played behind closed doors because of Covid-19.
But the reality is that the biggest area the national body has struggled in over the past two-and-a-half years, especially in the past 12 months, is on the field.
In high-performance sport, there’s only one measurement that really defines success: winning. On that note, Joe Schmidt failed.
The New Zealander won just 12 of 31 Tests to finish with a win-loss record of 38.71 per cent – 0.5 per cent better than his Kiwi compatriot Dave Rennie, who won 13 from 34 Tests. Rennie’s Wallabies also drew three matches (each in 2020), meaning Schmidt’s overall losing percentage of 61.29 per cent is the worst in Australian history since the game turned professional.
It’s why the perception around Schmidt is better than the reality, with the Wallabies still ranked No.8 in the world.
Italian job showed two great areas of improvement
The Wallabies’ 57-10 demolition job over Italy was just reward for a hard-working group, who at last gave Schmidt and assistant coach Laurie Fisher something to smile about.
Up against a second-string Italian side missing their suspended coach Gonzalo Quesada and several of their best players, including Sebastian Negri, Niccolo Cannone, Tommaso Menoncello and Ange Capuozzo, the Wallabies put the Azzurri away comprehensively.
In fact, it looked like Italy, who were smashed by Japan earlier in July, were already on the plane back to Rome; the Italians’ attitude, goal-line defence and discipline were horrific.
Other Wallabies sides of the past decade haven’t quite put away sides as easily as Schmidt’s men did, so that factor should be applauded despite bombing some more tries in the second half.
There’s no doubt the Wallabies’ attacking breakdown and improving set-piece helped in the nine-tries-to-two clinic over Italy, too.
Three selections Schmidt got right… eventually
They might have been barely used last year, but the Wallabies’ three biggest movers in July were hooker Brandon Paenga-Amosa, lock Josh Canham and half-back Ryan Lonergan.
Paenga-Amosa’s set-piece work was outstanding, Canham’s physicality, lineout prowess and skill were a feature, and Lonergan’s pass and distribution were first-class.
But the question is why it took so long for Schmidt to get the trio into the side?
While Schmidt might argue he’s got them up to speed and ready for incoming Wallabies coach Les Kiss, he’s also slowed their development and exposure at the Test environment.
Schmidt’s statement over 10 farce that doesn’t wash
The Wallabies have certainly had some misfortune with injuries over the past 12 months.
But the farcical merry-go-round situation at fly-half is somewhat down to Rugby Australia’s retention efforts, and certainly their inability to identify the best playmakers in the country.
That was clear when Carter Gordon left rugby to join the NRL in mid-2024.
The blonde-haired playmaker was clearly Australia’s most talented playmaker yet RA, with Schmidt as head coach and deeply involved in the retention and recruitment of players, barely put up a fight to keep Gordon.
They tabled an offer to him, but it didn’t necessarily scream that they wanted to keep him. That was also reflected in Schmidt’s comments on the record, too.
“I’d love Carter to stay and to be in the mix for the Wallabies, but if he doesn’t, then I’m excited about working with whoever we do select in that position,” he said.
A fraction over 12 months later, with the governing body not sold on their options at home, RA paid out some compensation to the Gold Coast Titans and lured him back to Super Rugby.
The unusual situation wasn’t too dissimilar to Noah Lolesio’s either.
While Schmidt pinned his faith in Lolesio for much of 2024 after Gordon decided to go, the 26-year-old playmaker signed with Japanese outfit Toyota Shuttles in early 2025. It came after yet another modest offer.
The Kiwi coach then bemoaned the rotating door in the halves.
Kiss’s biggest call coming up
The new Wallabies coach will name his first squad on Thursday.
There aren’t expected to be any wildly different selections from the playing group Schmidt selected.
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Prop James Slipper is likely to step down for now to allow the next generation some time to grow before next year’s World Cup, while midfielder Len Ikitau has an injury cloud hovering over him. That could see Hunter Paisami (knee) and Josh Flook (calf) return despite the former Reds midfield pairing not being 100 per cent fit either.
Tom Hooper’s injury could also allow Kiss to bring back hard-hitting lock Lukhan Salakaia-Loto seamlessly.
Kiss is also believed to be weighing up calling up two-time World Cup member Jordan Petaia.
But the biggest call that Kiss will likely have to make over the next week is just who will captain the side.
While Harry Wilson enjoyed the captaincy duties under Schmidt’s watch, it’s believed Kiss is considering whether that’s in the best interest of the group going forward.
Kiss will also have to balance whether to give one or two regulars the Test against Japan off, or ask them to continue despite knowing there are another 11 matches left to run in 2026.
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