Wallabies v Argentina preview: Advantage Australia as Joe Schmidt’s charges to ‘paint the title race picture’ with bruising victory
Wallabies captain Harry Wilson and Argentina number eight Pablo Matera.
It is understandable that the other Rugby Championship match featuring the Springboks away to the All Blacks at Eden Park will dominate the headlines this Saturday, but the result in Townsville will be no less important given that all four teams go into Round Three with one win each.
These two sides have provided the results of the tournament so far: the Wallabies shocking South Africa in Johannesburg in Round One with the most amazing comeback, and Argentina putting New Zealand to the sword in Round Two in Buenos Aires.
With the leading southern hemisphere pair now locked into their feisty rivalry for the next two Saturdays, the Australia–Pumas matches offer the opportunity for one of these underdogs to challenge for the title in the final two weekends.
Momentum is very much with the Argentinians, as they come into the game on the back of that historic first home win over the All Blacks, but consistency is lacking in their results under Felipe Contepomi.
Meanwhile, the Wallabies would have been buoyed by how close they came to a follow-up success in South Africa. But for James O’Connor missing a conversion, they would have been ahead with six minutes remaining in Cape Town, and who knows what might have happened in that scenario.
As it was, they lost 22-30, and they now pick things up with a home game in the unfamiliar – and sweaty – surroundings of North Queensland.
Where the game will be won
For all the glorious running rugby that these two proud nations can and have produced in recent encounters, the job is still very much done up front and in the collision zones.
In the matches against the Springboks, the Wallabies dominated the breakdown, and the same was true, albeit to a lesser degree, for the Pumas when fronted up against the All Blacks. On the evidence of the last two weeks, Saturday’s meeting is bound to be a brutal tussle at the breakdown.
Los Pumas’ ruck speed was truly impressive, while the Wallabies were masters of the dark turnover arts, particularly in Johannesburg, where Tom Hooper and Fraser McReight had a field day.
Will Skelton’s absence in the pack will be blatantly obvious, while Marco Kremer’s promotion to the starting XV only rubs salt into Australia’s wounds. The Wallabies’ powerhouse was crucial for winning the gainline battle, whether that’d be stopping or generating momentum, while Kremer is a master of the former for Los Pumas.
While the collision battle is bound to be crucial, the set-piece will be just a pivotal one with both teams possessing fantastic lineout operators across their back-five forwards, but the scrum will be a real concern for Contepomi and co.
Lastly, the Argentines flexed their kicking prowess against the All Blacks, bossing the aerial exchanges, and the Springboks did the same in Cape Town. Joe Schmidt will demand better in Townsville, while Contepomi will expect a similar effort.
Last time they met
What they said
Wallabies boss Schmidt certainly hasn’t forgotten last year’s humiliation. “It hurts, it still stings,” he said at his Thursday media briefing in Townville. “You never want to be beaten like that, particularly the last 20 minutes, which was really where it got right away from us.”
What’s more, he is anxious about the threat posed by his friend Contepomi. “We’d be pretty friendly, and it was a bit like Andy Farrell and the Lions series. It is always tough to come up against those guys and be coaching. They know you well, and you know them well.
“That respect I have for him [Contepomi] as a coach and even as a player, that makes me a little bit afraid of what he has got cooked up, and I hope he is not sleeping well about what we might have in our armoury to be ready for them.”
The narrative from Argentina coming out of their Thursday media briefing was how they have full confidence in the changes they have made to their team from the win last time out over New Zealand, including the naming of two uncapped players on the bench.
“They [Boris Wenger and Geronimo Prisciantelli] have already been training very well for several weeks, and we believe that they are ready. One obviously does not have the crystal ball and does not have pure certainty of how they are going to play, but we always say that we try to prepare the players to be successful.”
Players to watch
For the Wallabies, the recall of the fit-again Harry Wilson as captain is a huge fillip. He scored two tries in their incredible comeback win over South Africa in Johannesburg, and his physicality was missed last time out in Cape Town.
Also of great interest will be how Tom Hooper goes in the second-row as the fill-in for Skelton following his string of excellent performances as the starting blindside.
Without doubt, he has been the Wallabies’ most improved player of 2025, but he now needs to bring his Brumbies club partnership with Nick Frost to a new height in the Test arena.
Corey Toole is another Wallabies pick to keep an eye on. The ex-Sevens player took to Test rugby like a duck to water on debut in Cape Town, scoring an excellent try and being very competitive in the air. Was that just first-day luck or can he enjoy a lengthy spin in the No.11 shirt?
Switching to Argentina, there was so much to love about their performance when beating New Zealand – including the turbo charge provided by the elusive Gonzalo Garcia, whose sniping and speed of pass was a nuisance for the All Blacks.
Pablo Matera also rolled back the years with his sterling effort, and seeing if he can back up that display with another monster contribution is on this weekend’s Planet Rugby bingo list.
Attention is also on the Pumas skipper, Julian Montoya. His engine against the All Blacks made a mockery of this mantra that Test rugby is now a 23-man game.
He was as effective in the 70th minute as he was in minute one in Buenos Aires – quite an achievement given that he came into the Argentina campaign off the back of an endless season in England.
Main head-to-head
We can’t look beyond the out-half clash featuring the mercurial Argentine, Santiago Carreras, and the rookie Wallaby, Tom Lynagh. Carreras was sublime in making light of the early exit of the injured Tomas Albornoz against the All Blacks, and his embracing ‘have-a-go’ attitude as a sub really got up the nose of the Kiwis.
It was quite the upswing in form for the newly signed Bath player as he struggled as the starting fly-half in the 0-2 series defeat to England in July after he was moved in from full-back, where he had done well in the Dublin win over the British and Irish Lions.
It was as if being the starting 10 against the English was too much of a burden for the 27-year-old, whereas getting thrown in against the All Blacks at an unexpected early stage freed him from the shackles, and he led his team’s fizzing attack with finesse.
It’s now up to him to show that this team-enriching fuel he provided wasn’t a one-off contribution and that he can light it up again in Townsville against the inexperienced Lynagh.
Injuries opened the door for Lynagh to get the starting jersey against the Lions, and he is now back in favour after recovering from the game-ending first-half head knock sustained in match three that resulted in the post-game suspension given to Dan Sheehan.
O’Connor was fantastic in Johannesburg in guiding the Wallabies to their incredible comeback win over the Springboks, but he cost his team dearly the week after with disastrous place kicking coming down the finishing straight, and he has now relinquished the jersey back to the fit-again Lynagh.
The youngster’s ability to lead his team is still very much in question. Remember, he was the Wallabies’ 10 when they blew their big second Test lead against the Lions and left them vulnerable to the devastating last-minute wound that was Hugo Keenan’s series-clinching try.
Lynagh has to step up and show he is definitely the real deal, and how he goes about trying to achieve this against the wily Carreras is intriguing.
Prediction
Much like the Eden Park epic that will kick shortly after proceedings conclude in Townsville, this is a tricky one to call. Despite the defeat in Cape Town, Schmidt’s men will be confident about their chances, having vastly improved under the New Zealander, while Argentina will be on cloud nine, having defeated the mighty All Blacks in South America for the first time ever.
Perhaps there is a hint at which way the result will swing in the recent performances, as Los Pumas have been unable to back up their big results, falling to England after a historic victory over the British and Irish Lions. That trend has been evident over the past few seasons, too. Last year, they upset the Boks in Argentina but were trounced a week later in Nelspruit. Similarly, they beat the All Blacks in New Zealand in round one of the 2024 Rugby Championship, but were hammered a week later.
While the results haven’t always come the Wallabies’ way this year, their performances have been pretty consistent, particularly since the second Test against the British and Irish Lions.
One cannot write off the Pumas. And the same is becoming true of the Australians again. Two wily coaches will certainly have tricks up their sleeves, but this time around, we are predicting that Schmidt will have the slightest of edges in what promises to be a brutal match.
As mentioned above, results in Australia over the next fortnight will go a long way in painting the title race picture, and we predict that the Wallabies will power to a narrow seven-point victory over the Pumas in a brutal, bullish Rugby Championship encounter.
Previous results
2024: Argentina won 67-27 in Santa Fe
2024: Australia won 20-19 in La Plata
2023: Argentina won 34-31 in Parramatta
2022: Argentina won 48-17 in San Juan
2022: Australia won 41-26 in Mendoza
2021: Australia won 32-17 on the Gold Coast
2021: Australia won 27-8 in Townsville
2020: Match drawn 16-16 in Sydney
2020: Match drawn 15-15 in Newcastle
2019: Australia won 16-10 in Brisbane
2018: Australia won 45-34 in Salta
2018: Argentina won 23-19 on the Gold Coast
The teams
Australia: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Corey Toole, 10 Tom Lynagh, 9 Nic White, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Tom Hooper, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 Tom Robertson
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Carlo Tizzano, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Filipo Daugunu
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallía, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo García, 8 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martín González, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Franco Molina, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julián Montoya (c), 1 Mayco Vivas
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Joaquín Oviedo, 21 Agustín Moyano, 22 Gerónimo Prisciantelli, 23 Benjamin Elizalde
Date: Saturday, September 6
Venue: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Kick-off: 14:30 (AUS), 4:30 (GMT), 16:30 (NZL), 6:30 (RSA), 1:30 (ARG)
Referee: Paul Williams (NZR)
Assistant Referees: Christophe Ridley (RFU), Sam Grove-White (SRU)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
FPRO: Glenn Newman (NZR)