Wallabies v All Blacks preview: Scott Robertson’s side to bully trans-Tasman rivals and retain Bledisloe Cup for yet another year
Joe Schmidt and Scott Robertson alongside the Bledisloe Cup
There may not be much at stake in terms of the Rugby Championship title when these two rivals face-off in Sydney, but history and pride is still on the line as the 2024 Bledisloe Cup kicks off.
It has been 22 years since Australia last lifted the much-coveted trophy – under Eddie Jones way back in 2002 – in a run which, to be perfectly honest, shows no signs of breaking.
In another year, the Wallabies may well have a chance. The All Blacks have proven to be vulnerable in 2024 so far as new head coach Scott Robertson looks to rebuild following the overhaul which occurred after the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
New Zealand have lost three of their seven matches this year, including a shock 38-30 defeat to Argentina in the opening round of the Rugby Championship. They responded by hammering Los Pumas a week later but Robertson’s men were not able to build on that in South Africa, suffering successive reversals to the Springboks.
As a result, they are in the unusual position of being out of title contention. The All Blacks have claimed the previous four editions of this tournament and, since the Rugby Championship’s inception in 2012, have only failed to win the competition twice – both in Rugby World Cup years, 2015 and 2019.
By divulging those statistics, on the face of it the Wallabies stand a chance, but unfortunately Australia have been making some unwanted history of their own.
Eddie Jones quite frankly left the team in a dreadful state and it has been down to Joe Schmidt to pick up the pieces. They started with three successive wins – against Wales (twice) and Georgia – but the Springboks encounters showed how far they are behind.
Australia were hammered twice at home, leaving them bottom of the Rugby Championship and where they have remained since. Although a last-gasp victory over Argentina hinted at a brighter future, one step forward soon became two steps back as they suffered a record 67-27 defeat to Los Pumas a week later.
It shows that, while the All Blacks are not quite the dominant force of old, their problems are miniscule in comparison to the Wallabies. Robertson is dealing with some teething issues as he seeks to get his team back to the top of the world game, but they are still much further ahead in their progression than their trans-Tasman rivals.
Therefore, for those who may ask, could there be a shock victory on the cards in Sydney? We very much doubt it.
Where the game will be won
Australia’s problems are vast – both in the forwards and backs – but there is some talent there. Up front, both Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou are hugely talented props while in the back-row Rob Valetini is a genuine world-class performer, but realistically the pack are not consistent enough to compete with the All Blacks over 80 minutes. Considering his vast potential, Tupou should be considered the best tighthead in the world, but he has simply not developed and could well have a tough day against the New Zealand looseheads.
That All Blacks scrum has become a real weapon and, if they get on top, the Wallabies should be fearful. Although the visitors’ attack hasn’t truly fired and was kept tryless on their visit to Cape Town last time out, they will not be facing the fearsome Springboks defence this time around. The Damian McKenzie-Beauden Barrett axis has worked nicely on occasions and could cut the hosts open if given a healthy supply of front foot ball.
Schmidt’s side do have some breakdown threats to potentially slow down New Zealand’s speed of ball but they will have to be on it physically to match the power of the three-time world champions. Interestingly, the All Blacks haven’t been quite as strong at the end of games and once again the bench doesn’t look particularly impactful in certain positions, so they may not be able to pull away, but it could be another long day for the Wallabies.
Last time they met
What they said
Wallabies full-back Tom Wright is not buying into the notion that the All Blacks are vulnerable despite Robertson’s men losing three of their past four matches.
“They just came up against the guys who won the World Cup so I don’t know if weakened is a fair assessment of where they’re at,” Wright said.
“I still look at them the same way, they’re one of the top two nations in the world.
“Any time you lose, you go back-to-back (losses), as we faced a couple of weeks ago (against South Africa), you certainly have your tail up and you’re keen to rip in.
“They were a whisker away in both games that they lost… we’re expecting them to be up for it for sure.”
Meanwhile, the All Blacks have talked up the qualities of Australia head coach Schmidt, who was part of the New Zealand backroom team during the 2023 World Cup.
“He’s an incredible coach and I think he’s the right man for the job, at the helm for the Wallabies,” centre Anton Lienert-Brown said.
“I remember he can pretty much name every rugby player in the world by first and last name, that was the first thing I was most impressed by him about.
“He’s much more than that. It’s just his relentless drive to coach the the little things that really matter in the game, like making sure you win the cleanout race and win the air and things like that… the grey areas of the game. And in test footy that can be the difference, there’s such small margins, and he understands that.”
Players to watch
The Wallabies firstly need to try and get some front-foot ball and their main ball carriers at close quarters, Angus Bell, Taniela Tupou and Rob Valetini, have key roles to play. Bell and Tupou also need big games in the scrum, an area the All Blacks have consistently targeted with Jason Ryan as forwards coach.
Elsewhere, they have struggled defensively and were cut open far too easily by Argentina, but a midfield of Hunter Paisami and Len Ikitau has a bit more physicality. Ikitau in particular is a fine centre, but he hasn’t quite found his best since returning to Wallabies side having missed out on the Rugby World Cup.
Australia will also need their decision-makers to step up. Nic White has not had too much international game time this year, but he gets a chance this weekend. White is probably the Wallabies’ best kicking half-back, so that will help take the pressure off Noah Lolesio, who is still having issues transferring his Super Rugby form to Test level.
Lolesio will find his task much harder if the All Blacks are able to get on the front foot early on. New Zealand have been bolstered by the return of Ethan de Groot, who will look to tear into Tupou, while his front-row compatriot, Codie Taylor, was simply exceptional against the Springboks in South Africa.
Another to play well in Cape Town was youngster Wallace Sititi, with the 22-year-old’s explosive carrying, allied by his footwork and athleticism, causing real problems for the Boks behemoths. With Tupou Vaa’i also standing up well, Robertson could well be putting together a pack which can compete with the best.
Behind the scrum, the head coach has reverted back to the playmaking duo of Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett. While most would like to see Will Jordan given an extended run at full-back, there is no doubt that the All Blacks have been more effective with Barrett working in tandem with McKenzie. It will be interesting to see if those two can finally unlock New Zealand’s attacking potential.
Main head-to-head
Schmidt interestingly decided to drop Carlo Tizzano from his squad, despite the openside being one of their best performers in the Rugby Championship so far. In fairness, he did it for good reason, with the outstanding Fraser McReight returning from injury, but it does mean there will be added pressure on the Reds star. McReight is both excellent over the ball and a good link man in attack, so he will need to show both of those qualities in Sydney.
The Aussie flanker will be up against the vastly experienced Sam Cane, who will earn cap number 99 when he plays against the Wallabies, and he will hope to put on a show. This will be the former captain’s third start in a row as he seeks to continue the impressive form he showed against South Africa. The breakdown was a real area of strength against the Springboks and Cane’s excellence at close quarters will cause the Wallabies problems if they aren’t efficient in the cleanout.
Prediction
We can only really see this going one way. Although New Zealand are still searching for the right formula that will see them return to number one, they are not that far off. The Wallabies, by contrast, have much to improve on, which suggests a long afternoon on Saturday. All Blacks by 15 points.
Previous results
2023: New Zealand won 23-20 in Dunedin
2023: New Zealand won 38-7 in Melbourne
2022: New Zealand won 40-14 in Auckland
2022: New Zealand won 39-37 in Melbourne
2021: New Zealand won 38-21 in Perth
2021: New Zealand won 57-22 in Auckland
2021: New Zealand won 33-25 in Auckland
2020: Australia won 24-22 in Brisbane
2020: New Zealand won 43-5 in Sydney
2020: New Zealand won 27-7 in Auckland
The teams
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Tom Lynagh, 23 Dylan Pietsch
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Sevu Reece
Date: Saturday, 21 September
Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 15:55 local (17:55 NZST, 06:55 BST, 05:55 GMT)
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Damian Schneider (Argentina)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)
