Wales v Scotland preview: Finn Russell to mastermind Scots’ historic Six Nations victory

Jared Wright
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Wales fly-half Sam Costelow and Scotland captain Finn Russell.

Wales fly-half Sam Costelow and Scotland captain Finn Russell.

Can Scotland finally end their 22-year-long drought in Cardiff, or will it be more of the same for Warren Gatland’s young Wales’ charges as the two sides collide in the 2024 Six Nations.

Wales and Scotland are on the same island geographically, but they are polar opposites when it comes to their current development and stability.

Gatland returned to the helm of Welsh Rugby last year and oversaw an upswing in performances after Wayne Pivac’s struggles. It was a far from vintage Six Nations campaign in 2023, but it was what was needed to get back on track with the World Cup fast approaching. The New Zealander led the side to a World Cup quarter-final, a feat that didn’t look to be on the cards just 12 months prior, and while a disappointing loss followed in the knockout stage, it was a largely successful year on the whole.

However, his quick-fix job has now turned into a complete renovation as he looks to the future and rebuilds a side that can challenge for the Six Nations going forward.

Meanwhile, Gregor Townsend has largely the same pool of players to select from as he did last year and will be eager to build on their early success in the 2023 Six Nations. With the current crop of players, Scotland is fancied to end their drought in Cardiff, finally, but those same players also failed to get out of a challenging pool at the World Cup.

It’s the settled versus the callow at the Principality Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing encounter.

Where the game will be won

While the gainline and set-piece battle is always crucial, it’s hard to look past the game management and kicking duel at the Principality Stadium. Gatland has already taken a swipe at Scotland for opting to have the roof open for the clash, and while he stated that the atmosphere is better with it closed, the fact is that it will play into Finn Russell’s hands more than Wales‘ Sam Costelow.

Being able to manipulate the backfield and force the opposition into tricky areas of the pitch to launch from will be crucial, whether it is wet or not. While Russell is renowned for his attacking prowess, he does have an elite kicking game, and his game management has come on in leaps and bounds in recent years – as is the case with most fly-halves.

While Costelow certainly has all the tools to compete with Russell, it will be a huge challenge for the 23-year-old, who is earning just his ninth Test cap and will need to lean heavily on his experienced half-back partner Gareth Davies.

Last time they met

What they said

Wales assistant coach Jonathan Humphreys spoke highly about the newcomers in the squad after a mass turnover following the World Cup.

“It has been good. There is loads of energy, and they are lapping it up,” Humphrey said.

“The reason they are in here is because we feel they can play international rugby, and their form with the clubs has shown that. They are super-keen, super-hungry and they will have experience of Test rugby during this campaign.

“The level of expectation within the group is high. You are still expected to perform; you are still expected to win. We want to get these boys up and running as quick as we can, we want them to experience success as quick as we can. Whenever that comes, the sooner the better, really.”

Players to watch

Louis Rees-Zammit certainly leaves an NFL-sized hole in the Welsh backline, but Gatland has a more than capable replacement in the rapid Rio Dyer. The Dragons star has the raw talent, pace and lethal edge to shine on the international arena. If Wales manage to manufacture chances for him, best believe he will take them.

Similarly, the injury to World Cup captain Jac Morgan is a huge blow to Gatland’s playing stocks, but with Wales effectively being an openside flanker factory, there is a battle-hardened and stellar replacement in Tommy Reffell. The man, affectionately known as ‘Tommy Turnover’, will be raring to go against Scotland, and when given a sniff at the breakdown, he is bound to live up to his nickname.

The retirement of Leigh Halfpenny, the unavailability of Liam Williams and Gareth Anscombe and Rees-Zammit’s code switch has opened the door for Cameron Winnett to make his mark at full-back. It is a new era for Welsh Rugby, and after an impressive season with Cardiff, Winnett gets his chance. Gatland is the kind of boss who rewards those who don’t let him down, and if he makes the most of his chance against Scotland, we will see plenty more of him going forward.

We can’t not mention the hugely impressive Dafydd Jenkins, who will become the second youngest man to captain Wales after Sir Gareth Edwards. Having already skippered his club, Exeter Chiefs, Jenkins has some experience with the role, but considering he is contending with Adam Beard, Will Rowlands and Teddy Williams for his position in the starting line-up, it’s a massive show of faith that he is given the responsibility of leading his country.

After wreaking havoc in the 2023 Six Nations, Duhan van der Merwe had a relatively quiet World Cup campaign by his gargantuan standards. However, he will be eager to remind the international audience about his capabilities. With Darcy Graham sidelined, Scotland do also have another lethal finisher on the opposite wing in Kyle Steyn, who is far from a like-for-like replacement for the pocket rocket but definitely not any less effective.

Without the responsibility of the captaincy, Jamie Ritchie has a great opportunity to get back to his best in the navy jersey. A powerhouse flanker with a wonderful skillset, we may just be seeing the start of Ritchie’s peak.

It’s hard not to lump them together because of how well they work as a combination, but ‘Huwipolutu’ are primed for another standout season. Huw Jones has spent a lot of time on the wing for Glasgow this season, but we saw just how quickly they can click in the Warriors’ Champions Cup clash against Toulon, linking up superbly with Sione Tuipulotu to tear the French side to shreds.

Main head-to-head

We have already mentioned the battle between Sam Costelow and Finn Russell, but it does go further than that, with the overall half-back partnerships bound to have a massive influence on the final result. Gareth Davies will do his utmost to ease the pressure on Costelow, while Ben White will be out to provide Russell with perfect service to launch from.

Again, the ability to play the game in the right areas of the pitch and getting parity in the aerial battle will be crucial. The set of half-backs can break the game wide open with their attacking attributes, but the tactical nous is even more important in their first game of the year.

Prediction

If Scotland are to break their drought in Cardiff, this is a great opportunity to do it against a rookie Wales team. While on paper and with the bookies, the Scots are favourites for this clash. The game is not played on paper, and this Wales team will be no pushover. However, we feel that Gatland’s side just won’t have enough in the tank to knock over Townsend’s charges and that late scores could bloat the Scotland winning margin over 15 points.

Previous results

2023: Scotland won 35-7 in Edinburgh
2022: Wales won 20-17 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 25-24 in Edinburgh
2020: Scotland won 14-10 in Llanelli
2019: Wales won 18-11 in Edinburgh
2018: Wales won 21-10 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 34-7 in Cardiff
2017: Scotland won 29-13 in Edinburgh

The teams

Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Leon Brown, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Corey Domachowski
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Alex Mann, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Mason Grady

Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (c), 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Luke Crosbie, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Ben Healy, 23 Cameron Redpath

Date: Saturday, February 3
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 16:45 GMT
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: James Doleman (New Zealand), Angus Mabey (New Zealand)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)

READ MORE: Opinion: Time for Scotland’s golden generation to actually deliver

Features Ben White Dafydd Jenkins Finn Russell Gregor Townsend Huw Jones Jamie Ritchie Rio Dyer Sam Costelow

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