Wales v Scotland prediction: Gregor Townsend’s charges to build on England win and ‘add more misery to hosts’ cause’
Wales scrum-half Tomos Williams and Scotland counterpart Ben White.
Wales and Scotland are set to resume their long-standing rivalry which dates back to 1883 when they face off in their eagerly anticipated Six Nations Test at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday.
After two rounds of action, Wales already have their backs to the proverbial wall after suffering back-to-back defeats against England (48-7) and France (54-12).
There was some optimism when Steve Tandy was appointed as Wales‘ new head coach ahead of last year’s Autumn Nations Series, but things have certainly not improved since he took over the coaching reins.
They suffered heavy defeats in their end-of-year internationals against Argentina, New Zealand and South Africa, and although they managed to clinch a narrow victory over Japan, if truth be told, Tandy’s troops were like lambs to the slaughter in their two previous Six Nations fixtures.
After those humiliating losses to the Red Rose and Les Bleus, Wales have already conceded 15 tries, while only scoring three in the Championship, and they are firmly rooted to the bottom of the table with a points difference of -83, having suffered 13 consecutive Six Nations losses stretching back to 2023.
By contrast, Scotland started this year’s tournament with an 18-15 defeat against Italy in Rome, which put plenty of pressure on their head coach, Gregor Townsend.
This, after his team came into the Six Nations following one-sided wins over the USA and Tonga, and heartbreaking losses against New Zealand and Argentina in the Autumn Nations Series.
After that narrow loss to the Azzurri, there were murmurs of Townsend possibly losing his job if Scotland lost to England but the pressure eased considerably as the Scots sealed an impressive 31-20 bonus-point win over the ‘Auld Enemy’ at Murrayfield.
That result put Scotland back in the title race as they currently occupy second position in the Six Nations standings – behind high-riding France – and Townsend and his troops will be determined to build on last weekend’s victory with a similar performance in Cardiff.
Where the game will be won
While the forward exchanges will be crucial with set-piece dominance particularly important, Scotland showed against England that that aspect is not the be-all and end-all of the game as they finished on the winning side in that fixture despite being under the cosh for long periods in the forward exchanges.
While we expect these two packs of forwards to match each other up front, the battle amongst the opposing backlines could be what decides this fixture’s outcome. And while the likes of Tomos Williams, Sam Costelow, Josh Adams and Louis Rees-Zammit are genuine attacking threats, Scotland’s have more X-Factor players in their backline who will be dangerous with ball in hand.
Against England, stalwarts like Finn Russell, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Ben White and Kyle Steyn all showed their class and will be expected to continue where they left off from their previous match while Blair Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe – who are both representing Scotland for the first time in this year’s Six Nations – are proven internationals who have shone on the biggest stage in the past.
Last time they met
What they said
Although Scotland will be heavy favourites to win this match, Townsend is wary of Wales despite their poor recent form.
“I’m sure last week a lot of people thought England were clear favourites (against Scotland), so the game is not about predictions and previous form,” he said.
Tandy is no stranger to his opponents as he spent six years working under Townsend as a defence coach between 2019 and 2025 and the Scotland boss is looking forward to being reunited with his former assistant.
“We think very fondly of Steve,” said Townsend. “He spent a long time with us, so he’s been a big influence on our players. He was a massive help to me as a coach, and I’m sure after the game, whatever the result, we can have a few beers in the changing room.”
Tandy, meanwhile, had nothing but praise for Townsend.
“He was brilliant for me, taught me lots about international rugby, encouraged me to be better as well and helped my growth and development,” he revealed.
“He pushed me to be out of my comfort zone and I feel your best growth comes when you get uncomfortable.
“I’m really grateful for that time in Scotland – the people, the fans, everything was outstanding but it’s the same here and it’s my home nation. So it has the potential to be even better.”
Players to watch
If Wales want to shock the Scots and end their losing streak in the Six Nations then their senior players will have to come to the party and one man who will be expected to lead their onslaught is experienced captain and hooker Dewi Lake. After an error-ridden performance in the loss to England, the 26-year-old came to the fore with a much improved display albeit in another defeat against France. Lake will be hoping to build on that effort against Scotland with his leadership and execution of his core duties crucial in the grander scheme of things.
Another experienced campaigner in Wales’ pack of whom big things are expected is Aaron Wainwright, who is shifted from the blindside flank to number eight for this fixture after an impressive all-round showing against Les Bleus last weekend. Wainwright, who is joining Leicester Tigers next season, took the fight to France on either side of the ball as he gave his side solid go-forward with some powerful carries while he also shone in defence and at the breakdowns. He will be determined to continue in that vein against the Scots.
Meanwhile, highly rated flyer Louis Rees-Zammit will be hoping to be more influential in this fixture after a below par display in that loss to France. Playing at full-back, the 25-year-old hardly troubled the French defence while he also had some shaky moments under the high ball in that encounter and he will be determined to improve in both facets of play. If Wales can create better attacking opportunities for Rees-Zammit, he could provide headaches to Scotland’s defence.
Also keep an eye on Gabriel Hamer-Webb, who is making his international debut on the right wing after some impressive performances for Leicester Tigers in the Prem and Investec Champions Cup this season. Blessed with plenty of pace, the 25-year-old knows his way to the try-line and will be keen to make an impact on attack.
If Scotland want to continue where they left off against England, then much will depend on the efforts of star fly-half Finn Russell, who is one of the world’s best players in his position. Russell was pulling the strings in Scotland’s backline against England and his ability to create space for his outside backs makes him a genuine threat with ball in hand. Apart from his attacking prowess, the 33-year-old is also an adept goal-kicker and will be expected to keep the scoreboard ticking off the tee against Wales.
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Meanwhile, another player who will be important for the visitors is exciting openside flanker Rory Darge, who took the fight to England with an outstanding all-round performance. An excellent breakdown exponent, the 25-year-old heads into the clash against Wales as the player with the most turnovers won (6) in this year’s Six Nations. Darge is also prominent on defence while he also impresses as a ball carrier and both those departments will be crucial against Wales.
Two other players who will be eager to impress is experienced backline duo Blair Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe, who have been called up to make their first appearances of this year’s Six Nations. When on song, Kinghorn and Van der Merwe are brilliant attackers who can give their side good momentum from the back and that’s exactly what will be needed on Saturday.
Main head-to-head
As the link between the forwards and backs, the two scrum-halves will be important for their respective teams and the tussle between Wales’ Tomos Williams and Scotland’s Ben White should be one of the highlights of this game. Although Wales battled in both their previous matches, Saracens-bound Williams’ showings were amongst the few positives from those encounters. He kicked well out of hand and also caught the eye with his sniping around the fringes and will be expected to give his side momentum in front of his home crowd in this fixture.
Meanwhile, his direct opponent White delivered a much improved performance against England after an underwhelming shift in Scotland’s defeat to Italy. The Toulon number nine varied his play well as he provided a slick service to his outside backs and brought his forwards into the game with clever offloads while he was also rewarded with a well-taken try after capitalising on an Ellis Genge mistake deep inside England’s 22.
Although much will depend on the quality of the possession which they will receive from their forwards, Williams and White have shown in the past that they can still be influential regardless of the game’s circumstances and they will be crucial to their respective teams’ causes again this weekend.
Prediction
Despite having home ground advantage, Wales will head into this encounter as the underdogs after underwhelming performances in those losses to England and France. Meanwhile, Scotland will be brimming with confidence following their impressive triumph over the Red Rose and we expect them to add more misery to their hosts’ cause. Scotland to win by 18 points.
Previous results
2025: Scotland won 35-29 at Murrayfield
2024: Scotland won 27-26 in Cardiff
2023: Scotland won 35-7 at Murrayfield
2022: Wales won 20-17 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 25-24 at Murrayfield
2020: Scotland won 14-10 in Llanelli
2019: Wales won 18-11 at Murrayfield
2018: Wales won 21-10 in Cardiff
The teams
Wales: 15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Alex Mann, 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Ben Carter, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 James Botham, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Blair Murray
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (c), 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Gregor Brown, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Max Williamson, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Nathan McBeth
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Grant Gilchrist, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Darcy Graham
Date: Saturday, February 21
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 16:40 GMT
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Adam Leal (RFU)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
FPRO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
READ MORE: World Rugby rankings: How the top 10 could look after this weekendās Six Nations action
