Wales v England preview: Red Rose to take the win and set Warren Gatland’s men back even further

The Six Nations disappointment may have gone and hopes will naturally be more positive in these teams’ respective camps, but can Wales and England realistically challenge for the World Cup title in France?

Logic suggests not but we will get a bit more of an indication when the sides meet in Cardiff on Saturday.

While warm-up matches don’t always tell a whole lot heading into the global tournament, small signs are often present as to how a team will fare in the main event.

Going back to 2019 and it was quite obvious that both these sides were in reasonable shape ahead of the World Cup in Japan. While Wales’ lack of depth was obvious, their full strength 23 was a match for anybody and that showed when they downed England in Cardiff four years ago.

It therefore wasn’t a shock that Warren Gatland’s men came so close to qualifying for the final, only to be denied by eventual winners South Africa in the last-four.

England did make it to the showpiece event – where they also lost to the Springboks – and their pre-tournament matches very much set the tone. Eddie Jones’ charges impressively defeated Wales 33-19 at Twickenham and, although they succumbed to the same side a week later, the Red Rose went on to hammer Ireland (57-15) and Italy (37-0).

These games are therefore important to both of these countries, who need to build confidence and cohesion going into France 2023 having sacked their coaches just a few months out from the World Cup.

Neither team displayed any particular improvement during the recent Six Nations, which means they need something tangible to cling onto following this encounter.

Where the game will be won

With so many changes from both teams, cohesiveness will undoubtedly be the main factor in the contest. Quite simply, who can adapt better to the mass changes both coaches have employed for this first warm-up encounter? Wales are perhaps slightly better served in the outside backs where George North, Louis Rees-Zammit, Rio Dyer and centurion Leigh Halfpenny reside, but in the crucial areas up front and at half-back England appear to have the edge.

Props Ellis Genge and Will Stuart combined well on their Australia tour in 2022, controlling the scrum battle and also excelling in the loose. And then in the back-row, the Red Rose have two of the starters from the Six Nations victory in Cardiff in Lewis Ludlam and Alex Dombrandt. Although Gareth Davies and Sam Costelow bring their club relationship into the Test arena, so do the Red Rose with Marcus Smith and Danny Care. In the key departments, this England side just seem to have an edge.

Last time they met

What they said

Wales have been written off ahead of the Rugby World Cup but head coach Gatland wants everyone to keep doing that.

“Continue to do it because it’s only going to make us stronger. I am really excited. I’m telling you this team will do something pretty special,” he said.

“I think if I look back on the Six Nations and all the things that were going on, I probably needed to let things unfold a bit and not be as direct or demanding as I might have normally been.

“The fact that things have settled down and a lot of new players have come in, the way that we’ve been so much more accountable for how we do things and demanding standards, that has been brilliant.

“As a group, we are in a good place. I promise you now, we will surprise some people.”

Although England boss Steve Borthwick has named a makeshift side to give individuals a chance to prove themselves before announcing the squad on Monday, he is still demanding a good team performance.

“This Test match is an important step in the way we prepare our squad for the World Cup. I’ve been very clear and straightforward with the players that this is a Test match against Wales, and we aim to go and play very, very well,” he said.

Two of the players seeking to impress the head coach are Harlequins duo Care and Smith, who line up together at half-back.

“What I would like them to do is bring their skill set onto the pitch and their leadership. I think they’re both fantastic players,” Borthwick added.

“They’ve experienced a lot playing together and I think that combination at nine and 10, and that understanding with each other is really important.”

Players to watch

It is hard to look past the uncapped players, who will be doing all they can to put themselves in contention for a place in the final 33-man squads. There are three in Wales’ starting line-up as centre Max Llewellyn and props Keiron Assiratti and Corey Domachowski make their debuts for the national team.

Llewellyn is a hard-running centre that starred for Cardiff last season but has since signed for Gloucester in the Premiership. With Exeter Chiefs’ Joe Hawkins deemed ineligible by the Welsh Rugby Union, there is a spot open for the 24-year-old to potentially force his way into the XV for the global tournament.

Prop is another area where Wales have struggled but Assiratti and Domachowski worked nicely in tandem at Cardiff in 2022/23. Their scrummaging was excellent in the latter stages of the United Rugby Championship season and the fact that they dovetailed well for capital-based outfit stands them in good stead this weekend.

Another Welsh youngster we are looking forward to seeing is the extremely talented fly-half Sam Costelow, who for a while has been tipped for great things. It will therefore be interesting to see if he is truly ready for this level having had a couple of cameos off the bench in the Autumn Nations Series last year.

This game takes on a similar importance for many of England’s players, which includes the impressive openside flanker Tom Pearson. The former London Irish back-row is unfortunate that he is competing in a highly congested position but, if there is someone who can usurp the likes of Jack Willis and Tom Curry in the pecking order, it is him. An outstanding athlete, who also has plenty of skill, Pearson covers all the bases which make a fine international openside and he is very much one to watch this weekend.

Alongside him in the pack is the slightly more established Alex Dombrandt. The number eight has been in and around the England squad over the past two years, but he has not exactly convinced at this level. The 26-year-old needs a big game against Wales in Cardiff, or else he could miss out on the final 33. He will be helped by having club-mates Care and Smith at half-back, but if anything that only increases the pressure on Dombrandt.

There are also some English backs with points to prove in Joe Cokanasiga and Guy Porter, while look out for replacements Theo Dan and Tom Willis when they get onto the field. Both are explosive ball carriers whose skills look well suited to the highest level, so big performances on Saturday will put them in the frame for selection.

Main head-to-head

Given some of the inexperience on show, it is perhaps not a surprise that both coaches have gone for wise old heads at scrum-half in the form of Gareth Davies and Danny Care. They are, of course, playing for their places as well, whether that be in the wider squad or in the 23, but no doubt these two can help the younger players in this game. Both are in their 30s and are likely, if selected, to be playing their final World Cup, so their presence will be crucial for their respective teams.

It is a particularly important match for Davies, though, who is playing his first match for Wales since Gatland’s return. Rhys Webb’s retirement has certainly helped his chances, but the head coach may well see Kieran Hardy and Tomos Williams ahead of him at the moment. However, that can change with a standout display on Saturday.

That is what Care will also be thinking of, with the Quins man finding himself in a similar position to Davies. If Six Nations selection is anything to go by, Ben Youngs and Jack Poortvliet are ahead of him in the pecking order, but the 36-year-old undoubtedly has the quality to get into that 23 for the big games at the World Cup.

Prediction

England claimed the victory in the Six Nations clash in Cardiff earlier this year and we expect them to repeat that triumph. It may be a few months down the line and the team personnel has changed, but Wales just don’t quite have the quality up front to match the Red Rose at the moment. England by 8.

Previous results

2023: England won 20-10 in Cardiff
2022: England won 23-19 in London
2021: Wales won 40-24 in Cardiff
2020: England won 24-13 in Llanelli
2020: England won 33-30 in London
2019: Wales won 13-6 in Cardiff
2019: England won 33-19 in London
2019: Wales won 21-13 in Cardiff
2018: England won 12-6 in London

The teams

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 George North, 12 Max Llewellyn, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 Christ Tshiunza, 5 Will Rowlands, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Corey Domachowski
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Ben Carter, 20 Taine Plumtree, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Dan Biggar, 23 Mason Grady

England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Max Malins, 13 Joe Marchant, 12 Guy Porter, 11 Joe Cokanasiga, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Danny Care, 8 Alex Dombrandt, 7 Tom Pearson, 6 Lewis Ludlam, 5 George Martin, 4 David Ribbans, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie Blamire, 1 Ellis Genge (c)
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Jonny Hill, 20 Tom Willis, 21 Jack van Poortvliet, 22 George Ford, 23 Henry Slade

Date: Saturday, August 5
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 17:30 BST (16:30 GMT)
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Mike Adamson (Scotland), Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Joy Neville (Ireland)

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