Wales v Australia preview: The Eddie Jones risk to fail as Warren Gatland to oust his old adversary at the pool stages

Colin Newboult
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Taulupe Faletau and Warren Gatland of Wales alongside Australia's Eddie Jones and Rob Valetini.

Just two matches into the 2023 Rugby World Cup and it is already last chance saloon time for the Wallabies, who know a defeat in Lyon will all but end their dreams.

They are a team – and organisation – under pressure, with Rugby Australia receiving just as much criticism as Eddie Jones and his charges.

It was, of course, the governing body’s decision to sack Dave Rennie when there was just a suggestion that his side were beginning to improve. Narrow away defeats to Ireland and France showed that there was talent in their squad, while they ended 2022 with a dramatic come-from-behind victory over Wales.

Ironically, it is now Jones who goes into a match with the Welsh hoping that they can repeat that triumph from last year and save his skin. It still might not be enough, as was the case for Rennie, who received his marching orders despite that success, but it would at least keep Australia, and their head coach, in the fight.

Wales themselves replaced their boss after that 39-34 reversal, with Warren Gatland returning to the hotseat following Wayne Pivac’s axing. They have endured similar struggles but, unlike the Wallabies, they appear to be on a very slight upward curve.

Victory over Fiji could well be crucial, which gave them five vital points, and they then overcame a talented Portugal outfit to go two from two and sit atop of Pool C with a perfect 10.

Gatland would love nothing more than to end the World Cup chances of Australia and his old adversary Jones. There is obviously the opportunity that as a New Zealander he can send the All Blacks’ great rivals packing, but also the fact that the two head honchos had their battles when Wales faced England.

Plenty of verbals were exchanged between the two during their great Six Nations matches – at a time when the two countries were the most successful in Europe – which adds further intrigue to an already huge encounter.

An incredible amount is riding on this game so expect there to be plenty of nerves in a tense and tight encounter that may effectively decide the qualifiers from this group.

Where the game will be won

The Wallabies were stagnant and surprisingly uncreative against Fiji, so there is much for them to improve ahead of this game. Part of the issue was that they were absolutely monstered at the breakdown and you wonder whether they will struggle in this area again given the pilfering threats Wales have.

That is perhaps why Jones has brought in Rob Leota as he will add physicality to the back-row, which would help their cleanout work and also gives them more of a gain line threat. Without Will Skelton and Taniela Tupou, they quite simply lack ball carriers up front and the head coach will hope that alteration has the desired effect.

However, it will not matter if they do not sort out their front five. Fiji didn’t win the game last weekend on sheer individual brilliance but on their scrummaging effort and kicking game, and it would not be a surprise if the Welsh enjoy the upper hand in both of those areas this weekend.

Gatland’s men could also have a better functioning lineout and potentially an even better maul, so there is plenty for Australia to be concerned about heading into Sunday’s clash.

Wales, meanwhile, tackled their hearts out in their World Cup opener against the Flying Fijians and were clinical in the opposition 22, but they will certainly want more of the ball so that they can control the latter stages of the match.

Last time they met

What they said

Wallabies head coach Jones has “no doubt” they will beat Wales and has doubled down after criticism of his selection policy, which saw him omit several experienced players prior to the World Cup.

“I don’t try to make myself out as a saint, but sometimes you’ve got to take some hard decisions to get the results further down the track,” said Jones.

“I’ve got no doubt we’ll win on Sunday, the way the team’s prepared and have come together.

“But if we don’t, then sometimes you’ve got to do the work that allows you to be successful further down the track.

“I don’t know of any team that you can come in and blow magic over, you’ve got to go through a process, and you’ve got to find out what’s wrong with the team, and then you’ve got to try to address those problems.

“So, I sit here very comfortably feeling like I’m doing the job I should be doing.

“I know people are upset about it, and I understand that … because the results aren’t good enough, but sometimes there’s some pain before you get some success.”

Wales prop Gareth Thomas believes that the Wallabies will be “dangerous”, but insists that they have the power up front to emerge victorious.

“They are always going to be dangerous when you play against them,” Thomas said.

“We wanted to come here with the mindset of winning all the pool games, and nothing has changed for us. So whether they have won or lost, it doesn’t change anything for us.

“We take a lot of confidence from the Fiji game and Portugal game and what we’ve done all summer, really, and feel like we can only get better as well.

“We know it is going to be a big, physical contest and we are looking forward to getting out there.

“It doesn’t really make any difference to me whether they (Tupou and Skelton) are in or not.

“We’ve got our heavies behind us – Will (Rowlands) and Beardy (Adam Beard) and Daf (Dafydd Jenkins). They are all heavy boys and Christ (Tshiunza) as well. We’ve got plenty of power ourselves.”

Players to watch

With the Wallabies very much struggling against Levani Botia and co. last weekend, captain Jac Morgan has an even bigger role to play than normal. The Ospreys back-rower is an exceptional breakdown operator and tough to move when over the ball, so he will look to both pilfer and slow it down, and prevent their opponents from gaining any momentum.

Alongside Morgan at flanker is blindside Aaron Wainwright, who will play a key role in negating Australia’s lineout. That was one area in which Jones’ men had real success against Fiji, especially late on in the game, and the athletic Wainwright can help the Welsh by being their third jumper to complement locks Adam Beard and Will Rowlands. He is also very quick and will be a threat in the wider channels.

Meanwhile, behind the scrum, Nick Tompkins arguably had his best game for Wales against Fiji and he has a big job in defence against the imposing Samu Kerevi. That has not necessarily been his strongest facet in Test rugby, but Tompkins continues to improve and will look to provide solidity in that midfield rearguard. His attacking skills are not in doubt, though, and he has formed a good partnership with George North, which can put the Wallabies’ muddled midfield under pressure.

Australia have faltered in that 10-12-13 channel, and Jones has made a significant alteration by bringing in Ben Donaldson for Carter Gordon. The head coach has previously come out in defence of Gordon, stating that, “If you know anything about rugby, you know that tens need time in the seat,” so of course he has promptly dropped him.

There is now huge pressure on Donaldson to deliver, but his form was pretty mediocre for the Waratahs in Super Rugby Pacific and his only Test start at 10 came against Wales last year. That may, on the face of it, bode well, but it was actually only after he was replaced by Noah Lolesio – another player discarded by Jones – when Australia started to play well. It could well be a career-defining game for the 24-year-old.

A better performance from the pack would certainly help the fly-half, especially in regards to the front five, who were smashed in the scrum by Fiji. Much of the onus is on James Slipper to hold up his end of the set-piece having struggled against Eroni Mawi last Sunday. It is not really Slipper’s fault, given that he has barely played at tighthead during his Test career but, such is the lack of depth at prop, the 34-year-old has been shifted to the number three jersey.

Main head-to-head

There is plenty of power at number eight as Taulupe Faletau faces off with Rob Valetini in Lyon on Sunday. Tongan-born Faletau has been a top-class performer for some time, but injuries have hampered him over recent years and he only just recovered in time to start Wales’ encounter with Fiji. He is still finding his feet but the past two matches will have done him the world of good, with his incredible cover tackle on Portugal’s Nicolas Martins typical of the number eight when he is at his best.

Valetini, meanwhile, will be Australia’s go-to man in the carry now that they are shorn of Skelton and Tupou. Valetini has not necessarily shone this year, but this would be an excellent time for him to produce on the biggest stage and help his team to a much-needed victory. He has not been helped by Jones’ chopping and changing, but a stable platform from the front five, allied by an accurate kicking game, will help him thrive.

Prediction

There’s no doubt that this match will be tight, given what is at stake for both teams, but Gatland’s men are in a slightly better place, both in terms of confidence levels and the quality of their squad. They are an experienced group in comparison to the callow Australians, while in the front five and at half-back they certainly have an edge. Wales by six points.

Previous results

2022: Australia won 39-34 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 29-28 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 29-25 in Chofu
2018: Wales won 9-6 in Cardiff
2017: Australia won 29-21 in Cardiff
2016: Australia won 32-8 in Cardiff
2015: Australia won 15-6 in London
2014: Australia won 33-28 in Cardiff
2013: Australia won 30-26 in Cardiff

The teams

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Louis Rees Zammit, 13 George North, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Dafydd Jenkins, 20 Taine Basham, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Gareth Anscombe, 23 Rio Dyer

Australia: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Tom Hooper, 6 Rob Leota, 5 Richie Arnold, 4 Nick Frost, 3 James Slipper, 2 David Porecki (c), 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Matt Faessler, 17 Blake Schoupp, 18 Pone Fa’amausili, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Fraser McReight, 21 Nic White, 22 Carter Gordon, 23 Suliasi Vunivalu

Date: Sunday, September 24
Venue: OL Stadium, Lyon
Kick-off: 21:00 local (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Luke Pearce (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)

READ MORE: Eddie Jones facing the ‘reality’ of his job security post-Rugby World Cup

Australia Eddie Jones

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