Wales to keep Grand Slam dreams alive

Colin Newboult

Scotland is the next obstacle Wales will have to overcome in their quest for another Grand Slam as the two go head-to-head at Murrayfield on Saturday.

During Warren Gatland’s tenure as head coach, they have finished with a perfect Six Nations record on two occasions – in 2008 and 2012 – so what better way to start the New Zealander’s final year in charge than with another triumph.

This Welsh team has all the hallmarks of a side about to make history too. Under Gatland, they have rarely dominated in Grand Slam-winning campaigns but have always managed to just do enough.

In ‘08, both England and Ireland gave them a fright while ‘12 saw those same two sides run them close, only for key players to produce game-defining moments to take the spoils.

Seven years ago, it was Sam Warburton’s tackle on Manu Tuilagi and Scott Williams’ rip on Courtney Lawes. In 2019, it has been George North’s intercept against France and Josh Adams’ wonderful finish in Round Three that have helped them into this position going into the final two matches.

It must also be remembered that Gatland’s charges are in the midst of a 12-match winning run and Wales are an excellent ‘momentum team.’ When confident, particularly in the Six Nations, they are a hugely difficult side to overcome and that was shown when the Red Rose were dispatched two weeks ago.

Most of the omens are duly in their favour but they will be facing a stronger Scotland squad than in previous rounds. Gregor Townsend has been unable to field his best XV and, although they are still without Stuart Hogg and Huw Jones, the return of Finn Russell, WP Nel and Hamish Watson will make them a difficult proposition at Murrayfield.

They are still especially fallible, however, and should Wales’ impressive defence get on top then Townsend’s men have a frustrating capacity to consistently make errors. But equally, they have a penchant for scoring quickly when things are going well, so it will be interesting to see which side wins the small battles and turns the game in their favour.

Ultimately, the visitors should have too much, with their pack working efficiently and the Gareth Anscombe-Dan Biggar rotation performing nicely, while there is always threat in the outside backs.

Although North, Jonathan Davies and Liam Williams haven’t been seen too much in an attacking sense, every team they face needs to be wary of that trio’s ability to produce match-defining moments.

Then there’s Adams. The Worcester wing continues to improve and has arguably been Wales’ star player in this tournament, helping spark the comeback against France and securing the win over England with a superb piece of skill.

If all those pieces work as they have been then Gatland’s charges will win, but there is a sense that Scotland do have the capabilities to provide a sting in the tail.

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Players to watch:

For Scotland: Gregor Townsend’s men have struggled to get on the front foot over the past two games and the onus once again falls on Josh Strauss to get them over the gain line. The South African-born back-row has played reasonably in this tournament but the number eight needs to step it up against Wales and carry effectively in traffic. Should he manage to do that job effectively then that opens the space for talented fly-half Finn Russell to weave his magic. Scotland have plenty of threats out wide for Russell to find so watch out for young Darcy Graham, who starred at age-grade level and has enjoyed an excellent season for Edinburgh.

For Wales: It’s really ‘as you were’ for Warren Gatland’s men, with the head coach keeping faith with the side that impressively defeated England, but he has been forced into one change. Following Cory Hill’s injury, Adam Beard comes into the second-row and one of his tasks will be to help improve their slightly errant lineout. They had issues in that area of the set-piece in their previous match and Gatland will hope that the 6ft 8in Osprey can help provide a slicker operation on Saturday.

Head-to-head: Scotland have had a few problems in the scrum while Wales’ front-row have gone pretty well and were dominant by the end of the England encounter. Gregor Townsend will hope that the return of WP Nel will solve those issues, however, with his battle against Rob Evans being key to their hopes of getting front foot ball. There is also an intriguing duel at scrum-half with Townsend bringing Ali Price into the XV. The Glasgow Warriors player will bring more energy and tempo to the position than Greig Laidlaw, but he is up against a fine half-back in Gareth Davies, whose all-round game was excellent in Round Three.

Previous results:

2018: Wales won 21-10 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 34-7 in Cardiff
2017: Scotland won 29-13 in Edinburgh
2016: Wales won 27-23 in Cardiff
2015: Wales won 26-23 in Edinburgh
2014: Wales won 51-3 in Cardiff
2013: Wales won 28-18 in Edinburgh
2012: Wales won 27-13 in Cardiff
2011: Wales won 24-6 in Edinburgh
2010: Wales won 31-24 in Cardiff

Prediction: Some key players have returned to Scotland’s side so we expect a close game but Warren Gatland’s men have the momentum. Wales by 7.

The teams:

Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Nick Grigg, 12 Pete Horne, 11 Darcy Graham, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Magnus Bradbury, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Willem Nel, 2 Stuart McInally (c), 1 Allan Dell
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Simon Berghan, 19 Ben Toolis, 20 Hamish Watson, 21 Greig Laidlaw, 22 Adam Hastings, 23 Byron McGuigan

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Josh Navidi, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Adam Beard, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Aled Davies, 22 Dan Biggar, 23 Owen Watkin

Date: Saturday, March 9
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 14:15 GMT
Referee: Pascal Gauzere (France)
Assistant Referees: Luke Pearce (England), Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)