Super Rugby Pacific play-off race permutations: What each side needs in the final round

David Skippers
SRP Permutations image 26 May 2024.jpg

Hoskins Sotutu of the Blues and TJ Perenara of the Hurricanes.

The final round of Super Rugby Pacific is set to take place next weekend as clubs make one final bid to seal their place in the tournament’s quarter-finals.

Ahead of the last weekend of the regular season, we run through the permutations with play-off places still up for grabs for 11 of the 12 participating teams in the Southern Hemisphere competition.

How the Super Rugby Pacific table works

During the regular season, points are awarded on the following basis:

– 4 points will be awarded for a win
– 2 points will be awarded for a draw
– 1 bonus point will be awarded to a team that loses a match by 7 points or less
– 1 bonus point will be awarded to a team that scores three or more tries than the opponent

If two or more teams are equal on tournament points for any position in the standings at the end of the regular season, the following is applied to determine final positions:

– Most wins from all matches
– Highest aggregate points difference from all matches
– Most tries from all matches
– Highest aggregate difference of total tries for versus tries scored against from all matches
– Coin toss

So, who needs what in Round 15 of Super Rugby Pacific?

Blues

Vern Cotter’s troops are sitting atop the Super Rugby Pacific table by virtue of having a better points difference than the Hurricanes with both New Zealand sides having amassed 51 points after 13 rounds of matches.

The Blues were sitting pretty after the 12th round but were dealt a blow at the weekend when they suffered a shock 29-27 defeat against the defending champions, the Crusaders, in Christchurch.

Despite that defeat, they secured a valuable bonus point which could prove crucial in the bigger scheme of things and will be hoping to return to winning ways when they face the Chiefs at Eden Park in the final round in a bid to cement top spot on the table which will secure them home ground advantage in the semi-finals and final.

Hurricanes

Although the Blues go into the final round of league matches in first position on the table the Hurricanes are breathing down their neck with same number of points collected after 13 rounds.

The Hurricanes cemented their position as joint table-toppers after clinching a narrow 20-19 triumph over the Chiefs in Hamilton, but they will be back on their home turf for their final league match against the Highlanders on Saturday.

Like the Blues, they want to finish at the top of the pile, but while the Blues have a points difference of 241 points, the Hurricanes’ stands at 172.

That means Clark Laidlaw’s men will be pushing for a bonus point victory against the Highlanders while hoping the Blues lose to the Chiefs or that the Aucklanders fail to pick up a bonus point if they are victorious at Eden Park.

Brumbies

The Brumbies head into the play-offs in excellent form after winning their last five matches and made a statement of intent when they cruised to a 53-17 triumph over the Rebels in Canberra on Friday.

That result means Stephen Larkham’s charges are firmly entrenched in third position in the standings on 48 points from their 13 matches played and just like the Blues and the Hurricanes, they also have 11 wins for the season.

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The Brumbies will travel to Perth to face the Western Force in the last match of the league phase of the competition on Saturday. While they are certain of finishing at least third, the men from Canberra could finish as high as first position if they manage to claim a bonus-point win against the Force while the Blues and Hurricanes suffer losses.

It might seem far-fetched, but it’s definitely not impossible.

Chiefs

Although the Hamilton-based outfit suffered a defeat in a thrilling derby to the Hurricanes on Friday – which saw them dropping down to fourth on the table and swapping positions with the Brumbies – they are assured of a home quarter-final as they cannot be overtaken by their closest rivals (the Reds).

Prior to that defeat, the Chiefs were in good form in Super Rugby Pacific as they won four matches in a row – against the Waratahs, Western Force, Moana Pasifika and Melbourne Rebels – with their last loss prior to that also registered against the Hurricanes in the corresponding fixture in Wellington on April 13.

When on song, the Chiefs are one of the best attacking teams in the competition, especially with the likes of Damian McKenzie, Sean Stevenson, Anton Lienert-Brown and Cortez Ratima in their ranks but with their spot in the play-offs secured don’t be surprised if head coach Clayton McMillan rests his star players and sends an under-strength team into the field against the Blues on Saturday.

Reds

The Reds’ form has been indifferent throughout the season, and they are assured of fifth spot on the table after winning seven and losing six of their 13 matches so far this season.

Just like the Chiefs, their position will not change in the standings which means Les Kiss’ side will be heading to Hamilton for their quarter-final encounter against last year’s runners-up.

That means they are the only teams who know who they will be facing in the quarter-finals ahead of the final round of league matches and like McMillan of the Chiefs, Kiss is also expected to field a weakened team when the Reds face arch-rivals – the bottom-placed Waratahs in Sydney on Friday.

Highlanders

After some underwhelming results during the competition’s earlier rounds, the men from Dunedin have shown considerable improvement over the last month and have leapfrogged the Melbourne Rebels on the table as they currently occupy sixth spot after claiming a 39-3 home victory over the Fijian Drua on Sunday.

The Highlanders will be hoping to retain that position because, as things currently stand, they will have to travel to Canberra to take on the Brumbies, whereas a slip-up against the Hurricanes this weekend could see them dropping down the table to seventh position.

That could mean that Clarke Dermody’s troops will return to Wellington to take on the Hurricanes, or they could face the Blues in Auckland, depending on how they did in their last league match against the Chiefs.

Melbourne Rebels

The Rebels made a solid start to their campaign and were amongst the early frontrunners in the competition but have been struggling of late as they have lost their last five matches – against the Crusaders, Blues, Reds, Chiefs and Brumbies – with their last victory registered on April 13 when they beat the Highlanders in Melbourne (47-31).

Such poor form is not how they will be wanting to go into the play-offs and head coach Kevin Foote and his side will be desperate to return to winning ways when they take on the Fijian Drua in Lautoka on Saturday.

As things stand, the Rebels will travel to take on either the Blues or Hurricanes or even the Brumbies, and teams like the Western Force, Crusaders, and Moana Pasifika will be hoping they can do them a favour by beating the Drua in their final league match to keep them in the race for the play-offs.

Fijian Drua

The Drua were on the receiving end of a big hiding against the Highlanders in Dunedin but they have shown that facing them on their home turf in Fiji is a very different prospect than them playing in away matches.

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Outgoing head coach Mick Byrne, who will step down from his position to take charge of Fiji’s national team, knows that his team simply have to beat the Rebels in Lautoka for them to advance to the quarter-finals for the second successive year.

With plenty at stake, the Drua’s players will be highly motivated to achieve that goal, and if they do what they have done in most of their previous home matches, they will be in the play-offs again.

Western Force

The Perth-based outfit’s play-off hopes suffered a massive dent on Saturday as they were comprehensively beaten by the Reds in Brisbane on Saturday (59-13) and will have to play out of their skins against the high-riding Brumbies if they want to reach the quarter-finals.

Prior to that, Simon Cron’s team put themselves in the play-off picture by virtue of outstanding back-to-back victories against the Drua and Waratahs in Round 11 and 12.

Truth be told, the Force face a tall order against Australia’s leading team, who still have ambitions of finishing above the Blues and Hurricanes at the top of the table, while they will also be hoping for the Drua and Crusaders to lose their matches.

Crusaders

The defending champions have found the going tough in Super Rugby Pacific this year and have only notched three victories while suffering a whopping 10 defeats – unfamiliar territory for Super Rugby’s most successful club.

After beating the Chiefs and Rebels in the earlier rounds, Rob Penney’s troops’ most recent victory was against the Blues at the weekend – an important result as it kept their play-off hopes alive.

To advance to the quarter-finals, the Crusaders must beat Moana Pasifika in Christchurch on Friday – preferably with a bonus point – and hope that the Drua and Force lose their respective matches.

Moana Pasifika

Even if they do not reach the play-offs, Moana Pasifika will be happy with the progress they have made in 2024 as they have delivered their best performance as a franchise in Super Rugby since the inaugural tournament in 2022.

Moana are currently in 11th position in the standings and have already won four matches – which is the most games they have won in a single season – bettering their previous record of two wins achieved in 2022.

Despite that improvement, they will still be trying their best to reach the play-offs but for that to happen they have to travel to Christchurch and get the better of the Crusaders.

Usually, that would not be such an enticing prospect, but the Crusaders are not at their best in 2024, and Moana head coach Tana Umaga and his charges will fancy their chances of causing an upset while also hoping the Drua and Force lose their games.

Waratahs

The Sydney side have endured an annus horribilis in Super Rugby Pacific this year and are the competition’s only club who have no chance of advancing to the play-offs.

The Waratahs have won just two out of their 13 matches played so far this season – both against the Crusaders – and will finish as the tournament’s bottom team for the 2024 campaign.

Their poor form has had serious repercussions for head coach Darren Coleman, as the club announced last week that his contract will not be extended beyond the conclusion of this season.

Round 15 fixtures:

Friday, May 31: Crusaders v Moana Pasifika, Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
Friday, May 31: Waratahs v Reds, Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Saturday, June 1: Fijian Drua v Melbourne Rebels, Churchill Park, Lautoka
Saturday, June 1: Hurricanes v Highlanders, Sky Stadium, Wellington
Saturday, June 1: Blues v Chiefs, Eden Park, Auckland
Saturday, June 1: Western Force v Brumbies, HBF Park, Perth

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