Springboks v Los Pumas prediction: World champions’ All Blacks slayers to continue winning ways and take step closer to defending Rugby Championship title
Springboks centre Damian de Allende and Los Pumas counterpart Santiago Chocobares.
There will be plenty at stake when South Africa go head-to-head against a much-improved Argentina outfit in their Rugby Championship encounter in Durban on Saturday.
With just two rounds of action left in this year’s prestigious Southern Hemisphere tournament, all the sides are still in contention to lift the title as champions.
Only two points separate the four competing nations in the standings, with each side having won two and lost two after the previous four rounds.
The Wallabies are currently setting the pace atop the table with 11 points, one ahead of the Springboks and All Blacks, and two clear of Los Pumas.
While the Boks come into this encounter against the South Americans with their tails up, after clinching an impressive 43-10 victory over the All Blacks in Wellington, they will underestimate their opponents at their own peril. Felipe Contepomi‘s troops are also in a confident mood, after they sealed a deserved 28-26 triumph over the Wallabies in Sydney.
This will be Argentina’s fourth visit to Durban for a Test against the Springboks, and they head into this weekend’s encounter having won one and lost two of their previous matches at Hollywoodbets Kings Park.
The visitors’ victory came on their first visit to the city in 2015, when they claimed a stunning 37-25 win over Heyneke Meyer’s Springboks outfit in the build-up to that year’s Rugby World Cup in England.
Since then, the Boks have avoided a repeat of that humiliation in Durban as they notched successive victories in 2018 (34-21) and 2022 (38-21) respectively, and the home side’s supporters will be satisfied with a similar result this weekend.
Where the game will be won
Both these sides come into this encounter with exciting players in their respective backlines, and with genuine attacking threats included in both starting line-ups, we can prepare ourselves for plenty of thrilling action in this fixture. However, for that to happen, a lot will depend on the forward packs and the battle at the set-piece, where both teams will have to be at their best.
The Boks’ forward play is one of their strengths, but it has been proven in previous Rugby Championship Tests played this year that they are not always on song in that department, and that has led to them suffering defeats to Australia and New Zealand. The same can be said of Argentina, who have also come off second best in their own losses to the Wallabies and All Blacks. Whichever pack provides good, consistent front-foot ball to their backs in Durban should also finish on the winning side.
Last time they met
What they said
The Springboks have held the upper hand in this fixture in recent years as they have won nine of their last 10 Tests against Los Pumas.
Despite that statistic, Boks head coach Rassie Erasmus is not underestimating his side’s opponents and expects a tough challenge from his opponents.
“This is a vital match for both us and the Pumas, and if one takes into consideration that they beat New Zealand and Australia in the first four rounds of the competition, as well as the British & Irish Lions earlier in the season, there’s no doubt we’ll treat them the respect they deserve,” said Erasmus.
“They’ve made big strides in the last few seasons, and have an astute coach in Felipe Contepomi, so we know they are going to throw everything at us. Adding to that, they boast a strong forward pack and extremely talented backs, so they pose threats all around.”
Meanwhile, Los Pumas boss Contepomi is confident his charges will give a good account of themselves against the tournament’s defending champions and 2019 and 2023 Rugby World Cup winners.
“For us, it is a massive challenge to come here to face the double world champions on their home ground. It is never going to be easy,” he told reporters in Durban.
“We respect the fact that South Africa is the number one team in the world at the moment. Having said that, we are here to compete. We have prepared according to the challenge the Springboks present.
“We would like to think that we can give them a good run for their money. We like to face a big challenge; we are a high-performance team, and as such, you want to test yourself against the best.
“It has been a good year so far, but that is in the past. We have made plenty of mistakes this season, and even in the games where we beat top teams, we have not been as good as we could have been.
“We are trying to get better week in and week out. We believe in each other. We are chasing cohesion, and we compete against each other in training as much as we compete against the opposition.”
Players to watch
For the Springboks, all eyes will be on young fly-half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, who retains his spot in the run-on side despite making a minimal contribution during that memorable victory over the All Blacks in the previous round. The 23-year-old is a precocious talent who possesses a vast array of skills, and he will be expected to unleash his dangerous outside backs with his brilliance on attack while also keeping the scoreboard ticking with accurate goal-kicking.
Amongst the forwards, the return of Jasper Wiese against New Zealand in Round Four proved to be a shot in the arm for the world champions after he missed four of their previous Tests due to suspension. Wiese hit the ground running upon his return with a barnstorming performance in which he caught the eye with a brilliant attacking display and a high work-rate on defence. A repeat of that effort should help the Boks to retain their winning momentum.
Another player who will be in the spotlight for the Boks is rookie front-row Boan Venter, who has been elevated to the starting line-up for this encounter after originally being named on the replacements bench. The 28-year-old Edinburgh stalwart came into the run-on side after Ox Nche withdrew due to a niggle, and he has massive boots to fill as the man his replacing is arguably the world’s best loosehead prop. Nche is renowned for his destructive scrummaging and ball-carrying ability and will be a tough act to follow, but Venter has yet to disappoint for the Boks since making his debut earlier this year.
For the visitors, a lot will depend on how their pack holds up against the world champions in the forward exchanges and their captain, Julián Montoya, will be crucial to the cause. The experienced hooker’s leadership skills have been superb throughout the tournament, and he will be expected to continue in that vein in this fixture. Apart from that, Montoya has also impressed with ball-in-hand, and his attacking ability will be vital in giving his side much-needed momentum in the tight exchanges.
Another experienced player who will have a massive role to play in the grander scheme of things for Los Pumas is star loose forward Pablo Matera, who returns to the run-on side after playing off the replacements bench in their previous clash with the Wallabies. Matera is one of the game’s best back-rowers as he is brilliant with ball-in-hand, gives his all on defence and makes his presence felt at the breakdowns. If he is on top of his game in all those departments, Argentina could cause an upset.
Amongst Los Pumas’ backs, keep an eye on experienced full-back Juan Cruz Mallía, who has been one of his side’s best attacking players during this year’s Rugby Championship. The 29-year-old has shone on with ball in hand from the back and comes into this encounter as the tournament’s leading player for metres gained (262) and carries made (43). That gives Los Pumas good momentum from the back but apart from his attacking prowess he is also solid in defence and safe under the high ball which makes him an important member of this team.
Main head-to-head
Both teams have excellent players throughout their ranks, and there are numerous exciting duels set to take place across the park, but the midfield battle between Springboks veteran Damian de Allende and Los Pumas star Santiago Chocobares should be exciting, as both players are crucial for their respective teams. De Allende will be keen to impress as he returns to action after missing the Boks’ previous encounter, which was a one-sided win over the All Blacks.
The hard-running inside centre has been a vital cog for world champions for the past decade, whether that is on attack or defence. However, he comes up against one of the world’s most improved players in Chocobares, who has caught the eye with outstanding all-round performances in this year’s Rugby Championship. The Toulouse stalwart faces a stern test against De Allende, who seldom plays poorly for the home side and whoever comes out on top in this battle should also finish on the winning side.
Prediction
After delivering an outstanding all-round display in their previous Test over the All Blacks, the Boks will be brimming with confidence. However, Argentina will also be in a confident mood after winning their previous Test away from home and should give a good account of themselves. Although the visitors will put up a good fight, the world champions will grow stronger as this match progresses. Springboks will win by 10 points.
Previous results
2024: South Africa won 48-7 in Mbombela
2024: Argentina won 28-27 in Santiago del Estero
2023: South Africa won 24-13 in Buenos Aires
2023: South Africa won 22-21 in Johannesburg
2022: South Africa won 38-21 in Durban
2022: South Africa won 36-20 in Buenos Aires
2021: South Africa won 29-10 in Gqeberha
2021: South Africa won 32-12 in Gqeberha
The teams
South Africa:15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter
Replacements:16 Marco van Staden, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Morne van den Berg, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Andre Esterhuizen
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallía, 14 Rodrigo Isgró, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo García, 8 Joaquín Oviedo, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Lucas Paulos, 4 Franco Molina, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julián Montoya (c), 1 Mayco Vivas
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Boris Wenger, 18 Francisco Coria Marchetti, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Pedro Rubiolo, 21 Juan Martín González, 22 Simón Benítez Cruz, 23 Tomás Albornoz
Date: Saturday, September 27
Venue: Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban
Kick-off: 17:10 local (16:10 BST, 15:10 GMT)
Referee: Angus Gardner (RA)
Assistant referees: Pierre Brousset (FFR), Angus Mabey (NZR)
TMO: Brett Cronan (RA)
FPRO: Damon Murphy (RA)