Springboks v Argentina preview: ‘Big Five’ to power Rassie Erasmus’ men to Rugby Championship title as Pumas fail ‘to buck the trend’
It all comes down to the clash at Mbombela Stadium in Nelspruit as the Springboks and Los Pumas slog it out to decide the 2024 Rugby Championship victors.
South Africa are comfortably in the driving seat needing just a single log point to be crowned champions of the tournament for the first time since 2019, becoming the first team other than New Zealand to win a full edition of the Rugby Championship since 2012.
However, standing in their way is a fired-up Los Pumas team who have created their own bit of history this year by defeating the All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks in the same calendar year for the first time.
Felipe Contepomi’s team face a daunting task if they are to be crowned champions as they must beat the Springboks and convincingly by claiming a try bonus point and a win of more than seven points.
Still the stage is set on the Lowveld where the two Southern Hemisphere powerhouses collide in an epic battle to conclude one of the most enticing and competitive Rugby Championships in recent memory.
Where the game will be won
The Lowveld is renowned for its sightseeing with visitors across the globe flocking to the Kruger National Park eager to spot the famous Big Five and on Saturday, the clash at Mbombela Stadium will centre around the two sets of big five forwards up front.
Much of Argentina’s success last weekend was thanks to their ability to disrupt the Springboks‘ lineout and hold their own at scrum time with the powerhouse Bok pack failing to dominate as they have in recent head-to-heads against the South Americans. Admittedly, Ox Nche did launch Joel Sclavi upwards in the scrum on one occasion but that was an outliner rather than the usual state of proceedings.
While Los Pumas ripped the Springboks’ defence apart on occasions last time out, the platform was laid by the work done up front and their ability to gain front foot ball. That battle will resume this weekend where Rassie Erasmus will hope that his tactic to rest the likes of Bongi Mbonambi and Frans Malherbe last week will pay dividends.
It would remis of us not to mention the impact that Eben Etzebeth will have in the starting XV as he resumes his positional rivalry with Pumas great Tomas Lavanini. The pair have become a focal point of the fixture in recent years and Saturday will be no different.
Ultimately, the tight-five will decide the outcome of the fixture in multiple facets of the game including the set-piece, gain-line and breakdown.
Last time they met
What they said
While the Springboks are in the driver’s seat of their Rugby Championship destiny, Erasmus refused to write off the prospect of Argentina claiming a famous upset to clinch the title by beating the odds, much like his team has done so many times in the past.
“It’s definitely possible, our team has shown that many things are possible when the odds are against you and Argentina is very a similar country to us,” he said.
Erasmus added that with both teams travelling from Argentina to Nelspruit for the fixture, the Springboks’ home-ground advantage has been negated to some extent.
“We always play one another at the end of the Rugby Championship and when you play home first and then fly with the team back you don’t really get the benefit of jetlag and time zones and that kind of thing,” he added.
“They get the same stress and tiredness or whatever would affect them too, so the way we try to counter that is by sending guys over there hoping and trying to beat them with that team. We got a bonus point – we would have loved the win.
“But now we are hoping that our chances are much better with six fresh guys in this side who didn’t play and also Eben who didn’t play a full match on that side and Siya Kolisi who would be fairly fresh.”
Speaking of Etzebeth, the Springboks lock will mark a special occasion on Saturday when he runs out in Green and Gold for the 128th time. Long-time teammate, Mbonambi, sang the lock’s praises ahead of the milestone.
“When it comes to Eben, he is a respected man in this team, on and off the field,” the hooker said.
“He’s a big family man but speaking about Eben in the Springbok environment – where he loves being – he’s given so much to the sport and to see him reach to see him reach this milestone is pretty amazing.
“Myself, Siya, Frans and a couple of us played with or against each other from junior level rugby and seeing how we’ve all grown, and developed through the years and seeing someone like Eben achieve this milestone is really, really awesome for him.
“For us as players we know how special it is and how special we’re going have to make it for him.”
Meanwhile, Los Pumas head coach Contepomi is expecting a fired-up Springboks performance in their final home game of the year.
“It’s South Africa at home, they are motivated by being home champions, they have already said that. It’s a huge challenge, we want to exceed our own expectations,” he said.
“Mathematically we have achieved our greatest amount of points in the Championship, but today what we want is to improve, in each training session, and if that leads us to the best results, great.”
Contepomi struggled to see any weak points in the Springboks’ game but added that even South Africa can buckle under pressure.
“I see South Africa as a very strong team with not many weak links and no weak points in their whole structure so we need to be very smart and play at our top if we want to impose our game plan,” he added.
“We expect what they always do from them but improved. Sometimes they are predictable, but they do it so well that it is very difficult to solve. That is what I expect from this type of match.
“They are more accustomed to these encounters [title deciders], but every human being feels the pressure. Professional sport is lived moment by moment and if we manage to make them uncomfortable with our defence or attack, any team subjected to that will suffer.”
Players to watch
For the fifth time this year, a new scrum-half will start in the number nine jersey for the Springboks as Jaden Hendrikse trades roles with Cobus Reinach. Erasmus has backed the ‘natural footballer’ to flourish in Tony Brown’s attacking structure as he earns his first start of the new year. Hendrikse is renowned for his accurate passing and kicking game but also provides a unique threat at the breakdown.
Eben Etzebeth has a knack for producing his finest performances on the biggest stages and will look to do so yet again when he becomes the most capped Springboks player of all-time. Few superlatives accurately sum up Etzebeth so perhaps it’s easier to simply state that he is one of, if not, the greatest Springbok, South Africa has ever produced. He continues to improve on his game, adding a string to his already overflowing bow and showed just how important he is to South Africa’s cause with a performance worthy of a victory off the bench.
Eben Etzebeth: The career timeline of the Springboks lock from rookie enforcer to all-time great
The Springboks’ defence faltered in the midfield in Argentina and in response, Erasmus has welcomed the return of Damian de Allende as he reinstates South Africa’s most capped combination in the 12 and 13 jerseys. De Allende has been consistently one of the best inside centres in the game for the past six years, producing world-class performances on both sides of the ball. He will be pivotal in winning the gain-line for the Springboks as well as being crucial in the momentum shifts throughout the encounter.
De Allende will have his hands full, however, as he fronts up against another world-class number 12 in form of Toulouse and Los Pumas star Santiago Chocobares. Similarly to the Springboks midfielder, it’s hard to remember the last time Chocobares had an underwhelming performance but the 25-year-old has shifted gears in 2024. He was the chief instigator of everything Argentina did well last time out but now faces a far more challenging task with De Allende lining up across from him.
A surprise package in the Pumas changes was the inclusion of Rodrigo Isgro, who earns his first cap of the year. His fellow winger Mateo Carreras has been in mindboggling form in the number 11 jumper and Argentina now pose a mighty threat on both wings this weekend. Isgro is well-known for his exploits on the sevens scene and will be eager to stretch his legs and the Springboks’ defence with his blistering pace and lethal sidestep.
There are plenty of Los Pumas deserving of praise but perhaps none so more than breakout star Joaquin Oviedo, who has been nothing short of exceptional for the men in blue and white hoops. The back-rower has a Kieran Read kind of feel to him with his extreme athleticism and well-rounded game. He will be keen to flex his abilities once again in his final outing in the Rugby Championship.
Main head-to-head
All eyes will be glued on the two number 10s on Saturday for contrasting reasons as Manie Libbok goes in search of redemption while the red-hot Tomas Albornoz will be out to continue his astonishing form.
Los Pumas boss Contepomi waxed lyrical about Libbok’s ability around the park dubbing him a ‘perfect fit’ to how the Springboks hope to attack, but his playmaking prowess is not of concern but rather his kicking off the tee as his Test success rate this year is below 50%. Erasmus says that the Springboks have made plans to ease the pressure off their number 10 and he will hope that pays off.
Felipe Contepomi: ‘Brilliant’ Manie Libbok ‘fits perfectly’ into ‘predictable’ Springboks plans
His opposite number has also had his blunders off the tee but his form around the park has papered over those cracks with the pivot starring in the last two Test matches in particular. Albornoz is in the form of his life at the moment and his performance last week is testament to that where he orchestrated the attack but also put in a sublime open play kicking shift.
While the gain-line and set-pieces will be key, what happens thereafter will be pivotal and the two number 10s will be the focal point of their team’s success.
Prediction
Last week, we incorrectly predicted a Springboks victory with Libbok’s missed kick being the nail in the coffin. The Pumas were deserved victors but face a different challenge this time around and recently Argentina have failed to back up their strong performances on successive weekends. Contepomi’s biggest task is to buck that trend but facing a fully locked and loaded Springboks, it looks just too much of a tall ask. The Boks were off-colour when they went down a man and discipline will be crucial in Nelspruit too. Overall, it looks far too weighted in the hosts’ favour who should claim a victory to win the Rugby Championship title beating the Pumas by more than seven points.
Previous results
2024: Argentina won 29-28 in Santiago
2023: South Africa won 24-13 in Buenos Aires
2023: South Africa won 22-21 in Johannesburg
2022: South Africa won 38-21 in Durban
2022: South Africa won 36-20 in Buenos Aires
2021: South Africa won 29-10 in Gqeberha
2021: South Africa won 32-12 in Gqeberha
2019: South Africa won 24-18 in Pretoria
2019: South Africa won 46-13 in Salta
2018: Argentina won 32-19 in Mendoza
2018: South Africa won 34-21 in Durban
The teams
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Lukhanyo Am
Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Rodrigo Isgro, 13 Matais Moroni, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Tomas Albornoz, 9 Gonzalo Garcia, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 7 Santiago Grondona, 6 Juan Martín Gonzalez, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Pedro Rubiolo, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julian Montoya, 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Ignacio Calles, 18 Pedro Delgado, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Pablo Matera, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Lucio Cinti, 23 Juan Cruz Mallia
Date: Saturday, 28 September
Venue: Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
Local kick-off: 17:00
GMT kick-off: 15:00
NZL kick-off: 03:00 (Sunday, 29 September)
AUS (AEST) kick-off: 01:05 (Sunday, 29 September)
RSA kick-off: 17:00
ARG kick-off: 12:00
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: James Doleman (New Zealand), Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)