Springboks v All Blacks preview: Rassie Erasmus’ men to ‘complete the double’ in ‘glorious humdinger’ edition of rugby’s greatest rivalry
The Springboks and All Blacks collide at DHL Stadium in Cape Town as Rassie Erasmus' charges close in on the Rugby Championship title. (Photos: Andrew Matthews/PA, AP Photo/Themba Hadebe and James Foy/Speed Media)
Here we go again! Rugby’s greatest rivalry takes centre stage in Cape Town as the Springboks and All Blacks collide for the second time in a week.
The first encounter between the two sides did not disappoint as they went hammer and tongs at one another in their first meeting since the Rugby World Cup final last year and despite New Zealand leading by ten points with 15 minutes to go, it was the hosts who emerged 31-27 victors.
This all sets up for another epic 108th edition of the glorious rivalry this time at a new venue as the Cape Town Stadium hosts the two heavyweights.
While the Springboks are the hosts once again, the All Blacks are feeling the love in the Mother City with many of its residents still supporting New Zealand having done so during the apartheid era.
Cape Town is set to be less hostile than Ellis Park but that will not translate onto the action on the pitch as the All Blacks look to bounce back from a gutting defeat and the Springboks aim to extend their longest winning streak over their rivals in the professional era.
One thing is for damn sure, we are in store for another cracking Rugby Championship encounter with both sides freshening up their respective lineups. Boks boss Rassie Erasmus has made seven alternations to his matchday 23 which now includes 19 Rugby World Cup winners while Scott Robertson has tweaked his team which now boasts a ton of experience on the bench to offset the poor finishes they have endured.
Where the game will be won
Last time out it was the bench that made all the difference and we can expect more of the same this time around and perhaps an even fiestier finish than the one in Johannesburg.
The altitude undoubtedly played a role last week as would have the experience of the All Blacks bench in comparison to the Boks but this weekend it is more even playing field on both fronts.
The Springboks have reverted to a more conventional 5-3 split on the bench while the likes of Beauden Barrett and TJ Peranara have moved into the replacements to address the fact that Razor’s men have been anything but sharp in the last quarter of matches failing to score a single point during that period in the Rugby Championship.
It should go without saying but if either team is unable to match their opponents at the set-pieces, on the gain-line or in the air, then the impact of the bench could be as useful as a glass hammer.
Much of the All Blacks’ success in the opening hour against the Springboks was a credit to their ability to hold their own in the scrum and to a large extent get their lineout was effective. Being able to replicate that again will go a long way in ending South Africa’s three-game winning streak but the same applies to the men looking to extend their streak, particularly after their lineout woes in Joburg.
Finally, discipline will be the order of the day as the All Blacks can ill afford to continue their trend of conceding 12 penalties on average per game – no other team averages more than the men in black. Last time out, the Springboks conceded just five penalties compared to the All Blacks’ 15 a number that Robertson’s men simply cannot allow to happen again against the Boks who will punish them.
Last time they met
What they said
Erasmus revealed why he opted for a standard 5-3 split on the bench instead of the 6-2 which has become the more regular option for the Springboks during his time in charge.
“I think a guy like Salmaan Moerat is very unlucky not to be in this team so to unpack it, two loose forwards on the bench, then Pieter-Steph du Toit covers lock, so we can probably put on the two loose forwards on in some way,” he said.
The head coach also touched on why the Springboks decided against citing Sam Cane for his tackle on Siya Kolisi at Ellis Park.
“He (Cane) came over and apologised. When you look at the action, yes, he could go a bit lower; but I don’t think he went for Siya’s head. It was just a head-on-head, it wasn’t with his shoulder it was his head on Siya’s nose. Sometimes it goes for you and against you.
“The poor guy was red carded in a World Cup final. It wouldn’t have been nice to see him get a red card again.”
The All Blacks camp has been focused on bouncing back from the narrow loss last weekend with Ethan Blackadder underlining the motivation of the side.
“I don’t think [there’s increased pressure],” Blackadder told reporters. “I think we’re actually more excited because we know we were close in that game. The motivation (in the group) is high to get it right.”
Robertson touched on his decision to drop veteran Beauden Barrett and Damian McKenzie to the bench as the All Blacks look to improve in the last quarter.
“We’ve looked at it and realised it’s important to have experience at the end of games,” said Robertson. “It’s a great couple of names to put on there with a lot of Tests and a lot of experience, and they’ll come on and finish the job for us.”
Players to watch
Kurt-Lee Arendse’s injury and Makazole Mapimpi’s family leave means that Canan Moodie is recalled to the starting XV and earns his first cap since representing his country at the Rugby World Cup. While Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has caught the world’s attention this year, it was Moodie who was the darling of the Boks’ fans in 2022 and rightly so. He is a freak of an athlete and a start who will be eager to continue his rapid rise in Test rugby.
After the marvellous performances of puppy Feinberg-Mngomezulu, the old dog Handre Pollard returns to the Springboks lineup for rugby’s greatest rivalry, one that he has a history of producing his finest performances in. The fly-half saves his best for the biggest and grandest stage and will look to do the same once again and show that he is more than capable of running the show in the number ten jumper but also show that he can in fact perform in the new attacking structures.
Last week, Jasper Wiese made his return from a three-month suspension lay-off but it was hard to tell that was the case as he thundered through a mighty shift in all facets of the game. Sporting a new mullet, Wiese was fired up and seemingly determined to make the number eight jumper his own again. He was phenomenal with ball in hand and his gain-line battle with the sensational Ardie Savea will be crucial for both teams in terms of winning the gain-line and momentum battle. We got getting another look at two of the best number eights in the business going toe-to-toe.
Staying with the importance of the back-row and Wallace Sititi has been thrown into the deep end as he lines up across the world-class Pieter-Steph du Toit in the opposing blindside flanker jersey. Du Toit has been in truly stunning form this year and Sititi will be tasked with matching him blow-for-blow as replacing the in-form but now injured Ethan Blackadder – who was a key cog in the All Blacks machine in recent matches. It’s a big ask for the young Sititi but there is no better match to prove yourself in and judging by his Super Rugby form this year, he is more than capable at this level.
After arguably his best Test match of the year, Damian McKenzie faces a different challenge at number ten this week as the rookie Bok is swapped out for the veteran Pollard. McKenzie has endured a few rocky games this year but if he is going to cut it as the starting ten under Robertson he has got to string together back-to-back performances against strong opposition teams and individuals. There is aren’t many better litmus tests than the Boks and Pollard.
Finally, we can not mention the two locks Eben Etzebeth and Scott Barrett who are arguably the best in the business in their respective positions. While Etzebeth isn’t donning the captaincy by name, he is very much a leader in the team and the pair’s ability with ball in hand, defence and lineout time will go a long way in deciding the match.
Main head-to-head
It simply has to be in the front row as possibly the best loosehead in the game goes up against the arguably the best tighthead as Ox Nche and Tyrel Lomax battle it out at scrum time and around the park. The mobile props are the epitome of the modern-day front rowers as they are exceptional scrummagers and manage to get through a ton of the nitty, gritty ugly work but combine it with soft touches too.
As mentioned above, the set-pieces will be a huge deciding factor in this one and the ability of the pair to hold up their end of the scrum under immense pressure will be crucial. Not to forget their ability in the lineouts and driving mauls with both teams scoring off the maul in Test I.
It’s a real treat to see two high-quality props at the top of their respective games square off and that is very much the case on Saturday – thankfully, the Cape Town pitch has been upgraded and we will get a proper battle in the scrums.
Prediction
It’s going to be tight right? Last week, we predicted the Springboks to win by 10 points with the bench proving to be the difference between the two sides and while the manner of the victory was spot on, the margin was off. New Zealand were far sharper and more effective than we predicted but the altitude and the Boks depth was too much for the All Blacks to handle. The bench battle is far more even this time around but New Zealand’s starters are weaker without Blackadder in particular. Make no mistake, this one will go down to the wire again but simply put, the Springboks are further in their development than their opponents and with 19 World Cup winners in their team, they are just more accustomed to winning than their counterparts.
The Springboks also have a good record at DHL Stadium having won three of their four Test matches losing only to the British and Irish Lions. This promises to be another humdinger of a Test match with the Springboks edging it by a single score, five points, and completing the double.
How the Springboks can win the Rugby Championship with two round to spare
Previous results
2024: South Africa won 31-27 in Johannesburg
2023: South Africa won 12-11 in Saint-Denis
2023: South Africa won 35-7 in London
2023: New Zealand won 35-20 in Auckland
2022: New Zealand won 35-23 in Johannesburg
2022: South Africa won 26-10 in Mbombela
2021: South Africa won 31-29 on the Gold Coast
2021: New Zealand won 19-17 in Townsville
2019: New Zealand won 23-13 in Yokohama
2019: New Zealand and South Africa drew 16-16 in Wellington
2018: New Zealand won 32-30 in Pretoria
The teams
Springboks: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Kwagga Smith, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Jaden Hendrikse, 22 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23 Lukhanyo Am
All Blacks: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett
Date: Saturday, 7 September
Venue: DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Kick-off: 17:00 local (16:00 BST, 15:00 GMT, 03:00 NZST)
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace (IRFU), Jordan Way (RA)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
READ MORE: Rassie Erasmus: Siya Kolisi took the ‘option’ to play ‘massive All Blacks Test’ despite injury
