Springboks v All Blacks prediction: Bomb Squad to fire Rassie Erasmus’ men to an emphatic victory in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry decider
Springboks playmaker Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and All Blacks pivot Richie Mo'unga.
Richie Mo’unga plays his first Test since the 2023 World Cup final on Saturday, handed the ten shirt by Dave Rennie for the one match of this series that New Zealand have to win.
The top line
Three Tests down and one to go, and the maths (or should we say ‘math’?) are simple enough; South Africa lead 2-1, can’t lose the series, and need a win at the home of the Baltimore Ravens to take the inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry trophy outright, whilst a New Zealand win levels it at two apiece. The trophy, rather thoughtfully, has been made so that it can be split in two but we don’t quite see that happening.
It’s the first rugby match ever staged at M&T Bank Stadium, on natural Bermuda grass and at sea level after two of the three Tests were played on the Highveld, and it’s the Springboks’ first Test in the United States since 2018, when Rassie Erasmus lost his first match in charge 22-20 to Wales in Washington. He’s won rather a lot since, including seven of the last nine against the All Blacks.
Dave Rennie has made nine changes, some forced and some very much his own. Ardie Savea, Luke Jacobson and Quinn Tupaea have gone home injured, and Codie Taylor, dropped for Soweto, returns as captain in an entirely new front row between Ethan de Groot, back from the concussion he took in the first Test, and Fletcher Newell.
Patrick Tuipulotu comes into the second row next to Sam Darry, Tupou Vaa’i moves to blindside, Ethan Blackadder starts at openside and Peter Lakai shifts from six to number eight. Anton Lienert-Brown takes 13, Josh Moorby comes in on the left wing for Leroy Carter, and Ruben Love drops out of the 23 altogether after six successive Test starts, whilst Beauden Barrett and Rieko Ioane are on the bench for their first international caps under Rennie.
Erasmus has barely touched his side, remarkable given his recent track record. Damian Willemse returns at full-back after a hamstring niggle, replacing Cheslin Kolbe, whose jaw was broken inside the first ten minutes in Soweto, and Morne van den Berg is promoted from the bench with Cobus Reinach dropping to 22; otherwise it’s the 23 that won last weekend. Eben Etzebeth goes to 146 caps, extending his own Springbok record, and Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese make their 19th Test start together, a record for a Springbok loose trio.
Where the game will be won
This is the week South Africa open the taps, and, naturally, it starts where every Springbok performance starts, up front. Their scrum won a penalty try five metres out just before half-time in Soweto, and later the penalty that went to the corner for Malcolm Marx to maul over and put the game away at 26-17.
Now it goes up against a New Zealand front row rebuilt since Soweto, with de Groot playing his first Test since the opener, whilst behind Ox Nché, Marx and Wilco Louw sit Gerhard Steenekamp, Deon Fourie and Thomas du Toit, an entirely fresh front row that is designed to create even more chaotic pain than those they replace.
Karl Dickson, outstanding all year, is the fourth referee of the series, and Matthew Carley, Angus Gardner and Nika Amashukeli each saw the scrum differently before him, which is the one variable Erasmus can’t select.
The All Blacks’ back row is where the rebuild will have the most concerns. Savea scored twice in Soweto and Jacobson took the armband when he went off, and with both gone, New Zealand have a lock playing blindside, Blackadder at openside and Lakai moving across to eight, all against a loose trio on its 19th start together, with Marx stealing ball at the breakdown as he did last weekend. If South Africa win the collisions and slow the ruck, Cam Roigard and Mo’unga will be playing off the back foot for long spells.
What changed in Soweto was what South Africa did once the platform was built. With Kolbe off, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu at full-back and Manie Libbok at ten, the attack went up a gear, Van den Berg lifted the tempo behind the scrum and maul when he came on, and from 17-12 down they scored 17 unanswered points. New Zealand now defend with a new 13, a new left wing and a ten playing his first Test in almost three years, and it’s safe to assume Damian de Allende will be sent down that channel from the first phase.
The air is the other set-piece. Ethan Hooker was man of the match in Soweto mainly for his work under the high ball, and the moment the Test turned came straight after Will Jordan’s try on 55 minutes had put New Zealand 17-12 up; Hooker contested the restart, South Africa moved it wide, and Jesse Kriel beat Carter to score from 25 metres.
In Baltimore, the Springbok kicks go up against Jordan, McKenzie and Moorby, who punish anything long and loose, so they have to be contestable, with Kurt-Lee Arendse and Hooker chasing, Willemse covering the space behind and Van den Berg box-kicking, which was the most accurate part of his game last weekend. An evening kick-off in late-summer Baltimore also brings humidity and the chance of a storm, and a greasy ball only makes the contestable a better bet.
There’s a precedent for what happens next. The last time South Africa decided their forwards had done enough and started moving the ball against New Zealand, in Wellington last September, they won the air first, then the second half 36-0, and the match 43-10, the heaviest defeat in All Blacks history. Add the legs, too; this is New Zealand’s eighth match in seven weeks, nine of the touring party have already flown home, and whoever has more left at 60 minutes will take this one.
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What they said
Rennie insisted the reshuffle was planned: “We always planned for there to be a number of changes for this match.” Mo’unga, he added, would have played in Baltimore whatever the state of the series: “We’re keen to give Richie a crack, and he’s prepared really well this week.”
He was careful with Love, saying they’d trusted him to run what was probably New Zealand’s biggest Test since the World Cup final ahead of three more experienced tens, which shows where they see him, whilst Taylor was the obvious captain given his place in the touring leadership, with injuries having stripped plenty of experience out of the group.
Dave Rennie explains Richie Mo’unga selection and reveals Beauden Barrett plan: ‘We are keen to give him that opportunity’
Erasmus kept it short. His side is settled; everyone delivered over the last two Tests, Willemse would have started in Soweto but for his niggle, and Van den Berg’s impact off the bench meant, in his words, that “he deserves a chance to start”, with Reinach adding experience from 22. He also said they were under no illusions about a New Zealand side that showed in Soweto it doesn’t stop until the final whistle.
Players to watch
Morne van den Berg starts for the first time in the series after 36 minutes in Soweto that changed the finish; he made big tackles, kicked accurately into a wind that wasn’t helping anybody, and the Springboks played quicker around the scrum and maul the moment he arrived. He has nine caps and five Test tries, and Erasmus has picked him to give Feinberg-Mngomezulu faster ball against a defensive line that’s had one week together.
Add Cobus Reinach from the bench, whose snipe and experience change the tempo again in the last quarter, and South Africa have two scrum-halves who both play at pace.
Damian Willemse returns at full-back with 54 caps and as good a memory as anybody in the 23 of what this fixture looks like when the Springboks let it go. He played inside centre in Wellington last September, carried 14 times for 90 metres, made two line breaks and scored the try that swung the game, and with Kurt-Lee Arendse and Ethan Hooker, man of the match in Soweto, either side of him, he’s the second distributor who lets South Africa attack from deep.
Codie Taylor was dropped a week ago and now captains New Zealand at 35, and the first job is the throw, the part of his game that drew the most criticism before he was left out. The lineout has been the softest part of this tour for New Zealand, and he’s throwing to a second row that has changed again, against Etzebeth and Ruan Nortje in the air; if it holds, Mo’unga has a platform to play from, and if it doesn’t, Asafo Aumua is on the bench.
Peter Lakai takes Savea’s shirt, which is a heavy one to wear, and his carrying before the hour decides how much front-foot ball Mo’unga sees, with Wallace Sititi behind him on a bench that Rennie has loaded with five forwards.
Main head-to-head: Richie Mo’unga v Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu
This is the glue against the dynamite.
Mo’unga’s record reads 56 caps and seven Super Rugby titles in seven years with the Crusaders, followed by two League One titles and back-to-back MVP awards with Toshiba Brave Lupus in Japan.
He came home to Canterbury this winter, scored the match-winning try against Auckland off the bench, helped reclaim the Ranfurly Shield a week later, and joined the tour as injury cover when Billy Proctor broke his shoulder, playing in the midweek win over the Lions.
His gift has always been making the players around him better; he organises the shape, picks the right option at the line, kicks with purpose, and puts Roigard, Jordie Barrett and Damian McKenzie, a second playmaker at full-back, into space. Behind a pack put together this week, that’s exactly the job, and there are few tens anywhere better equipped to hold a new side together.
Feinberg-Mngomezulu, on his day, is as explosive a ten as there is. He was World Rugby’s Dream Team fly-half last year, broke Percy Montgomery’s Springbok record with 37 points against Argentina, and at 24 already has 184 Test points from 23 caps. But is he playing like that man right now? He had ankle surgery after the URC quarter-final at the end of May, and even Erasmus admits he’s “not 100% hitting his straps just yet”, whilst Victor Matfield, on the Rugby Rivals podcast, reckons he’s “going through that second-year syndrome”, with the expectations raised and every defence now ready for him.
What’s gone quiet is his own creativity. Across the series he’s managed the game, kicked and distributed, but the step, the dummy and the line break that made him the story of 2025 have been seen far less, and in Soweto he spent most of the evening at full-back after Kolbe went off, having already been sent to the bin on ten minutes for knocking the ball down, whilst Libbok ran the attack. Baltimore gives him the conditions he hasn’t had since his return: a settled pack going forward and Van den Berg’s quicker service, and the man defending the ten channel he’ll attack first is Mo’unga, all 85 kilograms of him.
Prediction
South Africa by 23, 43-20, and our thinking starts in the front row. The Springbok forwards have decided the last half hour of each of the last two Tests, and this time they face a New Zealand pack assembled in a week at the end of an eight-match tour, with an entirely fresh Springbok front row, Lood de Jager and Cameron Hanekom still to come.
New Zealand will score, because Will Jordan and McKenzie always find something and Mo’unga will give them shape early, but once South Africa are in front and the bench arrives, they tend to pull away rather than protect the lead. It’s the same 43 they put past New Zealand in Wellington last September, and it would give Siya Kolisi the series 3-1 and the trophy in one piece.
The teams
Springboks: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok
All Blacks: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (c), 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett
Date: Saturday, 12 September 2026
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, USA
Kick-off: 17:00 (local EDT), 22:00 (UK), 23:00 (France), 23:00 (South Africa), 07:00 (13 September, AEST), 09:00 (13 September, New Zealand), 18:00 (Argentina), 06:00 (13 September, JST), 17:00 (EDT)
How to watch: Sky Sports (UK and Ireland), Sky Sport / Sky Sport Now (New Zealand), SuperSport (South Africa), Stan Sport / Nine Sport (Australia), Paramount+ & RugbyPass TV (USA), Premier Sports (Canada), WOWOW (Japan), ESPN Sur (Central/South America and Caribbean)
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU) and Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
FPRO: Matteo Liperini (FIR)
