Scotland v Wales: Six Nations preview as hosts set to down wounded Welsh in the battle of Murrayfield

Dylan Coetzee
Six Nations: Split with Van der Merwe, Jones, North and Tshiunza

The start of the Six Nations last weekend served up some blockbuster clashes with some outstanding rugby being played throughout, and round two is set to be no different as a wounded Wales side travel to Edinburgh to face an upbeat Scotland.

Scotland made it a hat-trick of Calcutta Cups last Saturday against England as they produced a stunning performance against the Auld Enemy at Twickenham.

The win is the perfect start for Gregor Townsend’s men. However, the real test comes in round two as the team has failed to win both games in the first two rounds since before the inception of the Six Nations, with their last victories in rounds one and two coming in the 1996 Five Nations.

It is a record they will be desperate to set straight, and it is one of their best opportunities. Scotland were committed on defence and potent on attack against England and came into the clash in fine form.

Townsend’s charges face a Wales team that severely underwhelmed against Ireland in Warren Gatland’s comeback match. The world’s top-ranked side dominated Wales in almost every facet of the game, and there is much work to be done.

Whilst it is not time for alarm bells yet as Gatland has only just returned, just how far off Wales were last weekend was a massive concern. The coach put faith in a contingent of older players, and to a large extent, that did not pay off.

It sets up a game of pressure where both sides come into the Test with something to prove, albeit on different ends of the spectrum.

Townsend will be happy his side will be running out onto their hallowed turf as they try to buck one of the most unwanted records around.

Where the game will be won

As always, the forward battle is crucial with Wales struggling against the Irish power last weekend. Gatland has made several changes as he hopes to bring the best out of his squad.

Scotland don’t have the power of Ireland as such, but with the commitment of the pack in the last game (all forwards in double-digit tackle counts), it would be difficult to vouch for Wales, whose set-piece was not good enough last week.

Wales need to improve in broken play as well and will be looking for better impact from their changed back-row. It is a massive game for the Welsh loose forwards at Murrayfield.

In the backline, outside of the rigours of an intriguing fly-half battle between Finn Russell and Dan Biggar, the biggest point of difference is in the centres.

‘Huwipulotu’, consisting of centre pairing Sione Tupulotu and Huw Jones, have shot to popularity after their outrageous performance against England. The pair’s skills complement each other very well, adding robust dynamism to Scotland’s set-up.

Wales need to match up in midfield, or the pair outside maverick Russell could determine the game on Saturday.

Last time they met

What they said

A lot of the talk coming out of the Scotland camp this week centred around Duhan van der Merwe’s sensational solo try against England that saw him run over 50 metres and beat five defenders.

Townsend likened the try to a PlayStation game and praised the wing for his resilience in getting back on the pitch.

“It was incredible, wasn’t it? It reminded me of when, for everybody of a certain age, you played Jonah Lomu Rugby and suddenly one person can go quicker,” he said.

“Duhan hasn’t had much rugby over the last few weeks. He’s trained really well with us but to play like he did today on the back of an injury, and not playing for Edinburgh, is real testament to how he’s got himself in this position, both mentally and physically.

“And I almost saw a different side to Duhan there as he stepped and then accelerated away.

Van der Merwe meanwhile has full belief that Scotland can do something special in this year’s Six Nations.

“We have to take it game by game,” he said. “We have to focus on Wales this weekend.

“But also we believe that we can go and beat every single team out there because we’re a really, really tight group and we play for each other. So why not?”

Meanwhile, Wales defence coach Mike Forshaw is not too worried about his side’s poor start last weekend and is conscious of the dangers of kicking long against Scotland.

“I am not too despondent because we lost the first game (34-10 against Ireland). I didn’t expect fairy-tale starts anyway,” he said.

“If you are going long and strong with your kicking game, you have to be strong defensively because he (Van der Merwe) is coming at you with some speed.

“He scored a wonder try at the weekend, probably one of the best tries I have ever seen.

“(Stuart) Hogg can hurt you. Then you have Finn Russell, who will try things off the cuff. I have had experience of that coaching against Racing 92 (Russell’s club team) over the last few years.

“We have to bring them to the fight a bit more and not give them long and strong opportunities.”

Players to watch

It would not be a players to watch section without Duhan van der Merwe, who is probably the hottest player in the Six Nations currently. His pace and power set him apart from anyone in world rugby, and he will always be a try threat. Expect the Scot to be at his best yet again this weekend as he looks to add another try to his growing tally.

Matt Fagerson was an absolute beast last weekend and topped the tackle chart with a ridiculous 26 hits against England. Whilst he was not the only Scotland star who put their body on the line, the number eight set an example of work rate and commitment. A betting man would vouch for another industrious performance this weekend.

Analysing Scotland must always include a look at Finn Russell, who is a very key component in the team’s attacking output. The fly-half has all the tricks in the box and is willing to use them. He kicks exceptionally well, but his true talent lies in breaking through defensive lines. So expect another blockbuster from general Russell.

Meanwhile, Dan Biggar has a massive task for Wales. The fly-half has proven himself at the highest level for many years, but now there is a big onus on him to drag his team out of a hole. The playmaker needs to kick well out of hand and avoid the dangerous Scottish back-three running rampant as they did against England. Biggar must control the game, or the Scots will have it all their way. It’s a big day for the veteran.

Centre Joe Hawkins starts again after a fair performance against Ireland, where he made 75 metres with 11 carries whilst distributing fairly well from the midfield. Of course, the star may not have had the best platform to use but looks a solid player. It will be a massive game against a pair of ruthless Scottish centres.

Welsh behemoth Christ Tshiunza gets a start this weekend and a well-deserved one. The flank has been a top performer for Exeter Chiefs in the Premiership and is ready to take his game to the next level. The star will offer some much-needed carrying power whilst also adding some dynamism in the loose. If Tshiunza plays how he has been, he may just lock up a starting spot for Wales off the back of this game.

Main head-to-head

Outside centre is often described as the hardest position to play because of how important it is to the structural makeup of rugby. On defence, key decision-making is required to protect outside channels, whilst on attack it is all about exploiting the same channel. This week is the impressive Huw Jones against the legend George North.

Jones is an interesting player whose form has fluctuated in the past, but now he is back and back with a vengeance. The centre is sublime; piercing in the carry, clever in his distribution and powerful in the collision. His understanding and synergy with Tuipulotu is a massive bonus, and we expect the two to fire yet again this weekend.

Meanwhile, it is all to do for North, who had an average game against Ireland. He has spent most of his impressive career on the wing, and Saturday will be a true test of his versatility. The veteran needs to ensure he executes fundamental and impose himself on the opposition, or the in-form Scottish midfield will run riot.

Prediction

History tells us Scotland will not get back-to-back wins, but this season could be different. Townsend’s men were sublime last week and come into the week with massive momentum. Wales, on the other hand, are scrambling and reaching for anything to hold onto. Scotland will win the battle up front, and ‘Huwipulotu’ could be the difference. Scotland by seven.

Previous results

2022: Wales won 20-17 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 25-24 in Edinburgh
2020: Scotland won 14-10 in Llanelli
2019: Wales won 18-11 in Edinburgh
2018: Wales won 21-10 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 34-7 in Cardiff
2017: Scotland won 29-13 in Edinburgh

The teams

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Luke Crosbie, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 WP Nel, 19 Jonny Gray, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Blair Kinghorn, 23 Chris Harris

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Josh Adams, 13 George North, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Jac Morgan, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Christ Tshiunza, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Ken Owens (c), 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Leon Brown, 19 Rhys Davies, 20 Taulupe Faletau, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Rhys Patchell, 23 Alex Cuthbert

Date: Saturday, February 11
Venue: Murrayfield
Kick-off: 16:45 GMT
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referees: Frank Murphy (Ireland), Chris Busby (Ireland)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)

READ MORE: Wales: Warren Gatland wields the axe as Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Faletau all dropped

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