Scotland v Wales preview: ‘Horrific’ record streak to end as pressure mounts on Gregor Townsend as ‘nearly men’ fall short again
Our preview of the Six Nations round four encounter between Scotland and Wales at Murrayfield Stadium.
Murrayfield Stadium will play host to two teams who are all but out of the running for the Six Nations title but still have plenty to play for as Scotland and Wales go toe-to-toe.
Wales arrive in the Scottish capital off the back of a run of 15 straight defeats in international rugby but will have a real spring in their step after a much-improved performance against the reigning Six Nations champions, Ireland, last time out.
The horrific run of results led to the departure of Warren Gatland with Matt Sherratt stepping in on an interim basis and making an immediate impact, with the men in red playing with a real purpose and clear gameplan, something that was painfully absent in recent defeats.
While the performance was in complete contrast to their first two matches of the year, the end result was not as Wales crashed to a 27-18 defeat, but that showing certainly garnered some hope.
As for Scotland, it’s been another campaign of ifs, buts and maybes as Gregor Townsend’s men have failed to live up to the billing of their star-studded squad. A nervy victory over Italy in round one was followed by back-to-back defeats, the first to Ireland after they lost stars Finn Russell and Darcy Graham to head injuries early on and the second to the Auld Enemy, England, with Russell missing a match-winning kick.
It means that Scotland return home ranked fourth overall in the standings with the title all but out of their reach, with several results miraculously needing to fall in their favour to win the tournament for the first time since Italy were included.
With a generational team, it’s another year of being the nearly men as they again turn their attention to finishing the tournament on a high.
Where the game will be won
Wales’ attack went from bordering on utterly useless to breaking through one of the tightest defences, Ireland’s, after just a handful of training sessions with Sherratt in charge and while a lot had to do with small tweaks to the structures, the breakdown certainly created the platform for it thrive.
The Scottish attack is also centred around their breakdown being, sharp, accurate and quick and despite their other shortcomings, the pack has laid a good launching pad in that regard. Both sets of coaching staffs will undoubtedly realise this with the breakdown once again being a huge focal point and battleground.
But in order to create those desirable 0-3 second rucks, the ball carriers need to win the gain-line battle and get over the advantage line – something both teams have struggled to do this tournament. Scotland (49%) and Wales (48%) are the only two sides to have a gain-line success rate below 50% with the Scots also having the lowest dominant carry rate (23%).
Whilst Wales’ tackle evasion rate is the lowest in the tournament (17), there is perhaps no clearer sign of improvement than the fact they broke their record for the most defenders beaten in a Six Nations match last time out against Ireland (33), according to Opta.
The most recent performances showed that while the two teams are struggling to win the gain-line battle, they have still been able to create try-scoring opportunities and ultimately, the game will be decided by the team that can actually convert. That’s where the issue lies for both outfits who boast the worst conversion rates after entering the opposition’s 22 in this year’s Championship, with Wales marginally bettering Scotland’s 2.1 points per entry.
Last time they met
What they said
Legendary Wales forward and now scrum consultant Adam Jones believes there is no pressure on the visitors on Saturday despite their dismal run of losses.
“It’s 15 losses on the bounce. There’s no pressure,” he said.
“There’s pressure on Scotland. This is probably one of the best sides they’ve ever had, if not the best side they’ve ever had.
“They’ll be expecting to beat us pretty comfortably at home, against a team that’s lost 14 times. We showed we can go toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the world.”
Still, he added that the team is desperate to end the run of defeats and after a much-improved showing against Ireland last time out.
“I know I said they’re the best Scottish team ever,” he said. “But there’s a bit of confidence now with us. There’s the feel-good factor.
“They have got good players, don’t get me wrong. But you can rattle good players and get stuck into them. We’re not going up there in awe of them. It’s a good place to play. The Welsh travel well. Max Boyce wrote a song about it so they always travel well up there.”
While Scotland will be favourites heading into the match, head coach Townsend is wary of taking Wales lightly after being impressed with their performance against Ireland.
“You could argue that they had opportunities to win that game on the balance of play,” Townsend said. “They dominated large parts of it.
“They’re a quality side. They’ve been on a run where they’ve had those defeats, but they’ve got some really good players.
“They’ve got experienced players back now and they’re playing with freedom. I’m sure they’ll come up with that spirit of wanting to try things this weekend.”
He added: “Looking at them, maybe they feel it’s a free hit. But their expectations will have gone up.
“We’ve two games to go. We don’t know where that’s going to leave us at the end of the competition if we did manage to get two wins, but there’s a lot to play for.”
Players to watch
Following the agonising defeat to England, Townsend has made just one change to his starting XV as he welcomes the return of livewire winger Darcy Graham. The pocket rocket speedster has been sorely missed by the Scots after his horror head injury against Ireland and returns to provide real pace, footwork and a lethal edge to the Scottish attack. In his two appearances so far, Graham averages 9.5 defenders beaten per 80 minutes, gaining on average 93 metres.
When the winger gets the ball in hand, he is incredibly difficult to contain and Wales will be wary of that along with fellow speedster Duhan van der Merwe, who produced a man of the match shift in the defeat to England, scoring and assisting a try. While Scotland have struggled to capitalise on the opportunities they have created, when the two wingers have been given something to work with, they have more often than not made the most of it.
Jamie Ritchie has bounced in and out of the Scotland line-up in recent times but retains the starting role after one of his best outings in recent memory against England. Not too long ago, Ritchie was being tipped as an outside bet for the British and Irish Lions captaincy and while that seems like a real long shot right now, he can certainly put himself into the frame for selection with another big shift this weekend. He was superb at the breakdown, excellent with ball in hand and relentless on defence at Twickenham and will be hellbent on producing another blinder.
Scotland’s scrum has not been at its usual high standard but that has not stopped Zander Fagerson from being a real workhorse around the park, topping the carry count (38) among the forwards in the Six Nations and boasting an impressive 90.5% tackle success rate from his 19 completed hits. Wales’ scrum has been another point of huge improvement this campaign but Fagerson will be eager to change that as he goes up against the excellent Nicky Smith.
Scotland’s form player this Six Nations has undoubtedly been full-back Blair Kinghorn who has produced mind-boggling stats. He tops the charts for carries (58) and metres gained (371) while ranking second for offloads (8) and defenders beaten (15).
Form is temporary, class is permanent – this might be a tiresome cliche but one that rings true when it comes to the peerless Taulupe Faletau. The veteran back-rower always gives his all on both sides of the ball and seldom makes an error. Despite his cruel injury setbacks, he has been able to return to international rugby and has never looked out of place. If Wales are to finally end their losing streak, you best believe that Faletau will play a pivotal role.
Following the injury to Liam Williams, Blair Murray took over the starting full-back role for Wales against Ireland and produced a tidy shift at the back, beating 11 defenders – a record for a Wales player in a Six Nations match. Murray has really hit the ground running since his arrival in Wales from New Zealand and has the skill set to cause Scotland all kinds of issues.
Staying with the Welsh backs and Max Llewellyn rubbished Gatland’s critiques of his game with a lively outing against Ireland where he got his hands on the ball several times throughout the match. He was another driving force in the far superior performance on attack.
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Main head-to-head
As mentioned above, the breakdown and gain-line battle will be crucial in deciding the match’s outcome on Saturday, with captains Rory Darge and Jac Morgan set to play starring roles in both facets of play.
The pair are both pressing for British and Irish Lions call-ups later this year and have been arguably the form player in their respective positions.
It was tight margins and massive momentum swings that decided this fixture 12 months ago and the two flankers are masters at generating those moments for their respective teams, whether it be a dominant carry or tackle or a pivotal breakdown steal.
Prediction
Last year Wales went winless in the Six Nations with the defeat to Scotland being by just a single point despite Townsend’s men racing into a 27-point lead. 12 months is an incredibly long time in international rugby and Wales arrive at Murrayfield with a horrific record losing streak and will be hellbent on ending that. And frankly, Sherratt and co. should fancy their chances of doing just that.
Scotland have been hit and miss this tournament and doubts are being raised about Townsend’s future, particularly with interest rife about Franco Smith’s services. Wales are desperate to end that losing streak and it’s bound to happen at some stage; why not this weekend?
Scotland have miraculously found ways to waste opportunities and lose big matches. After a morale-boosting performance against Ireland and a lot more preparation with Sherratt ahead of this fixture, one cannot help but think this might just be the game that ends the losing streak and in what could be a make-or-break result for Townsend’s future as Scotland head coach. It’s bound to be a tight, tight fixture decided by a kick or bounce of the ball with Wales winning by just three points.
Previous results
2024: Scotland won 26-27 in Cardiff
2023: Scotland won 35-7 in Edinburgh
2022: Wales won 20-17 in Cardiff
2021: Wales won 25-24 in Edinburgh
2020: Scotland won 14-10 in Llanelli
2019: Wales won 18-11 in Edinburgh
2018: Wales won 21-10 in Cardiff
2018: Wales won 34-7 in Cardiff
2017: Scotland won 29-13 in Edinburgh
The teams
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Gregor Brown, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 George Horne, 22 Stafford McDowall, 23 Kyle Rowe
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Jac Morgan (c), 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 WillGriff John, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Nicky Smith
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Joe Roberts
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Date: Saturday, 8 March, 2025
Kick-off: 16:15 GMT
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR)
Assistant Referee 1: Nic Berry (RA)
Assistant Referee 2: Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
FPRO: Tual Trainini (FFR)
Broadcasters: ITV, S4C, France Télévisions, RTE, Sky Sport / TV8 (Italy), Supersport (Africa), WOWOW (Japan), Premier Sports (Pan Asia), Stan Sport (Australia), Sky NZ (New Zealand), DAZN (Canada), NBC / Peacock / FuboTV (USA)
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