Scotland v New Zealand prediction: All Blacks to ‘navigate tricky assignment’ and extend unbeaten streak against ‘competitive’ hosts
Sione Tuipulotu and Jordie Barrett image
Scotland and New Zealand are set to resume their rivalry which dates back to 1905 when they meet in their eagerly anticipated Nations Championship Test at Murrayfield on Saturday.
The top line
Despite having home ground advantage, Scotland head into this encounter as the underdogs after failing to beat the All Blacks in the 33 previous encounters between these countries.
New Zealand have been victorious in 31 of those Tests while the best results in this fixture for the Scots were a couple of draws which they registered in 1964 and 1983.
Although they are yet to secure a victory against the men in black, Gregor Townsend‘s troops head into this clash with some confidence as they currently occupy second position in the Nations Championship’s Northern Hemisphere standings, just one point adrift of France.
This, after the Scots notched wins over Argentina and Fiji while also suffering a defeat against South Africa during the Southern Hemisphere leg of the competition in July.
Meanwhile, the All Blacks started Dave Rennie‘s reign as head coach in style with impressive Nations Championship triumphs over France, Italy and Ireland and those results mean they are in second place in the tournament’s Southern Hemisphere table with South Africa sitting pretty in top spot by virtue of a superior points difference.
Although there’s been plenty of misery for Scotland in this fixture over the years, they have been competitive against the All Blacks recently. Despite losing their last four Tests to the men in black, three of those defeats were by eight points while a fourth one – in 2017 – was by just five.
Those results will give the Scots some hope of causing an upset this weekend.
Where the game will be won
These are two teams who employ similar game-plans in which a free-flowing and expansive approach on attack is preferred but in order for the respective backlines to impress with ball in hand, the forward battle will be crucial in deciding the eventual outcome of this fixture.
One of the major reasons for the All Blacks’ 3-1 series defeat against the Springboks was their inability to get the better of the world champions in the tight exchanges particularly their scrummaging and lineout efforts.
The Boks put plenty of pressure on the All Blacks at scrum time and Rennie’s charges conceded 14 penalties as well as a penalty try from the set-piece over the four Tests between the arch rivals while South Africa also stole eight lineout balls during the series.
While they are expected to improve in both those departments against Scotland, the home side showed during this year’s Six Nations and most of their previous Nations Championship Tests that their set-piece work has improved, particularly their scrummaging and that facet of play could prove crucial in the grander scheme of things.
Whoever dominates up front and provides good front foot ball and speedy possession to their backline should emerge victorious.
Last time they met
What they said
Rennie is wary of the threat posed by Scotland particularly at Murrayfield where they usually impress in front of their home fans.
“We’re aware we’re playing a Scottish side that’s very confident at home,” he said. “They’ll have a lot of belief, but we’ve got to back our game as well.
“Our job is to put them under as much pressure as possible and take the crowd out of the game.”
Meanwhile, Townsend is preparing his troops for a tough encounter but expects a different challenge from the men in black under Rennie’s guidance after he replaced Scott Robertson.
“It’s great we now get this opportunity to play New Zealand again but it’s a different New Zealand team,” he said. “It’s a team that is playing much more ambitious rugby.
“They’re informed, they’re cohesive. They played a lot of Test matches over the summer, so it might not be the same game that transpires.”
Players to watch
Scotland have been boosted by the return of two of their backline stalwarts in experienced outside centre Huw Jones and full-back Blair Kinghorn, who are set to make their international comebacks after missing their country’s July internationals.
Jones was sidelined due to a foot injury but has made a full recovery and lines up in midfield alongside Scotland skipper Sione Tuipulotu to resume their highly successful Huwipulotu partnership. Brilliant with ball in hand, Jones is renowned for running superb attacking lines and he will be expected to test the All Blacks’ defence once he builds up a head of steam.
Meanwhile, Kinghorn was dropped from Scotland’s squad for their previous Nations Championship matches and is set to make his Test return via the bench after being named amongst the replacements for this fixture. A brilliant attacker, who is also solid under the high ball and in defence, he will be champing at the bit to make an impact in this match.
If Scotland want to end their winless streak against New Zealand then their fly-half Finn Russell will have to produce one of his best performances. A superb playmaker, who has the ability to unlock the tightest defences with his superb skill-set and if he does that this weekend, the home side could emerge victorious.
Amongst Scotland’s forwards, keep an eye on Jack Dempsey, who usually gets through plenty of work as a ball carrier but also puts his body on the line on defence where he is renowned for putting in some big hits.
For New Zealand, experienced backline stars Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett showed in their recent Bledisloe Cup triumphs over Australia that they still have important roles to play in the international arena. Like those encounters, McKenzie starts at fly-half and Barrett at full-back and just like the clashes against the Wallabies, they are expected to provide a twin playmaking threat on attack.
Amongst the forwards, stand-in skipper Codie Taylor might be in the twilight of his career but he showed against the Wallabies that he can still produce impressive performances at Test level. Apart from impressing as a player, Taylor has led his troops well, since replacing the injured Ardie Savea as captain, and his leadership skills will be crucial against the Scots.
Another player whose stocks have risen recently is star loose forward Peter Lakai who was one of the All Blacks’ best players during their recent series against the Springboks. Capable of playing in all three back-row positions, the 23-year-old will play on the openside flank in this clash and he is sure to be in the thick of the action on either side of the ball.
Main head-to-head
While there are several enticing direct duels lined up across the pitch, the midfield battle will be crucial particularly between the two inside centres, Scotland’s Sione Tuipulotu and New Zealand’s Jordie Barrett, who both possess excellent all-round skill-sets.
Both are outstanding with ball in hand and will be determined to make an impact in that department. Tuipulotu is a powerful ball carrier who enjoys the direct route which usually gives his side good momentum. However, he also possesses deft touches and his superb distribution skills will be expected to create some try-scoring opportunities for his team-mates.
However, his direct opponent Barrett comes into this clash in a rich vein of form as he has been at the forefront of New Zealand’s onslaught in the international arena in 2026. The 29-year-old started at inside centre in eight of his country’s nine Tests played this year and whether on defence or attack, he has been a vital cog in the All Blacks machine.
Prediction
After delivering several impressive performances against New Zealand recently, Scotland will be in a confident mood ahead of this match. However, the All Blacks have too much class across the park and although this will be a tricky assignment to navigate, their winless streak in this fixture will continue. All Blacks to win by eight points.
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Previous results
2025: New Zealand won 25-17 at Murrayfield
2022: New Zealand won 31-23 at Murrayfield
2017: New Zealand won 22-17 at Murrayfield
2014: New Zealand won 24-16 at Murrayfield
2012: New Zealand won 51-22 at Murrayfield
2010: New Zealand won 49-3 at Murrayfield
2008: New Zealand won 32-6 at Murrayfield
2007: New Zealand won 40-0 at Murrayfield (RWC pool match)
The teams
Scotland: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (c), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Rory Sutherland
Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Blair Kinghorn
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (c), 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Christian Lio-Willie, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Rieko Ioane
Date: Saturday, November 7
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 14:10 GMT (03:10 NZDT)
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
Assistant referees: Andrea Piardi (FIR), Jordan Way (RA)
TMO: Olly Hodges (IRFU)
FPRO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)