Scotland v Italy preview: Townsend’s troops have ‘too much firepower’ as Finn Russell will ensure Scots don’t repeat 2024 slip-up
Scotland fly-half Finn Russell and Italy counterpart Paolo Garbisi.
Saturday’s Six Nations action gets underway at Murrayfield when Scotland and Italy face off in what should be a thrilling encounter between two highly entertaining teams.
After an impressive campaign in last year’s Autumn Nations Series, where they notched up victories over Fiji, Portugal and Australia and put up a brave performance in defeat against the world champions South Africa, Scotland will be full of confidence ahead of this weekend’s encounter.
Scotland‘s preparations for the Six Nations suffered a major setback when they lost the services of star inside centre and first-choice captain Sione Tuipulotu to injury in the build-up to the Championship.
The midfielder delivered several excellent performances for Scotland during the Autumn Nations Series and continued with that outstanding form at club level for Glasgow Warriors.
And while the 27-year-old’s presence will be greatly missed, head coach Gregor Townsend still has superb attacking threats in his ranks with brilliant playmaker Finn Russell expected to unlock Italy’s defence with his vast array of skills which will unleash brilliant finishers like Duhan van der Merwe, Darcy Graham, Blair Kinghorn and Huw Jones on his outside.
Meanwhile, the Azzurri head into this encounter in a confident mood as they have improved under the guidance of head coach Gonzalo Quesada who took over the coaching reins from Kieran Crowley ahead of last year’s Six Nations.
Quesada’s arrival brought an immediate change in fortunes for the tournament’s perennial underachievers as they delivered competitive performances in most of their matches and eventually clinched victories over Scotland and Wales as well as a deserved draw with France.
That triumph over Scotland in Rome will still be fresh in the memories of Townsend and his troops, who will be out for revenge on Saturday.
However, Italy have world-class players like captain Michele Lamaro, Paolo Garbisi, Ange Capuozzo and Tommaso Menoncello, who was last year’s Six Nations Player of the Tournament, in their ranks and will be hoping to continue with their upward trajectory in the international game.
Where the game will be won
Both sides like to play expansively but the side who dominates the territorial battle and has most of the possession will have an edge. Although the ball should receive plenty of air, the end result will depend on the game management of the respective fly-halves. In Scotland’s Russell and Garbisi of Italy, we have two masterful number 10s and playing the game in the right areas of the field will be crucial in the grander scheme of things.
In order for the fly-halves to dictate proceedings, they need to receive good front foot ball from their forwards and the battle up front will be huge. For Scotland, the likes of Pierre Schoeman, Zander Fagerson and Jonny Gray will be crucial in the tight exchanges but they can expect a tough duel from their opponents who have seasoned campaigners like Danilo Fischetti, Simone Ferrari and Federico Ruzza who will be leading Italy’s charge in that department.
Last time they met
What they said
Scotland number eight Matt Fagerson will form a loose forward combination with flankers Rory Darge and Jamie Ritchie while for Italy, Lorenzo Cannone starts at the base of the scrum with powerhouse Sebastian Negri and captain Lamaro on the flanks.
Fagerson believes the back-row battle will be a key facet of play and whoever dominates the breakdowns will have an edge over their opponents.
“They’ve got a quality back-row,” he said. “They’ve got jacklers all over the park. [Michele] Lamaro, [Lorenzo] Cannone, [Manuel] Zuliani, they’re all fantastic over the ball and they’ve got a wealth of depth there.
“So, yes, that’ll definitely be a challenge at the weekend. It’s something that we’re definitely going to look at and work on in training. We’ve got a pretty good depth in our back-row as well so hopefully it’ll be a good battle there.”
Italy full-back Tommaso Allan said the Azzurri are preparing for a difficult challenge and expect their hosts to be highly motivated on their home turf.
“I think there is never a good time to face Scotland,” he told the Italian Rugby Federation’s official website. “It is always a difficult match against them, even more so at their home.
“They are a team with many strong points that is coming off a very positive period and in November they played very well. We are studying them and we are preparing our match to play our game: we have to do it at our best and then the result will be seen at the end.”
Players to watch
For Scotland, there will be plenty of pressure on the shoulders of Stafford McDowall who has big boots to fill as he comes into the run-on side as a replacement for first-choice inside centre Tuipulotu. Like Tuipulotu, McDowall also plays his club rugby for Glasgow Warriors and it will help that he has his clubmate Jones on his outside in the midfield. While McDowall is less direct than Tuipulotu in his approach, he is brilliant on attack and solid in defence and will be keen to hit the ground running as he aims to cement his spot in the run-on side.
Although he is just 24 years old, and only made his Test debut two years ago, Rory Darge has quickly cemented himself as Scotland’s first-choice openside flanker. Darge possesses a brilliant all-round skill set with his high work-rate at the breakdowns and on defence among his strengths, while he is also a willing ball carrier. With Tuipulotu sidelined, Darge will be Scotland’s co-captain along with Russell and he will be keen to make an impact in the leadership role as well.
Another Scot who will be hoping to make a positive impact is veteran hooker Dave Cherry, who has been recalled to the international arena after last playing for his country in 2023. Townsend has said that Cherry’s set-piece accuracy was one of the reasons why he has recalled him and the 34-year-old will be hoping to repay the faith shown in him by his coach in that department on Saturday.
For the Azzurri, the performance of their skipper Michele Lamaro will be in the spotlight. Lamaro is usually very competitive at the breakdowns and has a high work-rate one defence but he will also have to do his bit as a ball carrier to give his side momentum on attack.
Another player who will be crucial to Italy’s cause is experienced centre Juan Ignacio Brex, who has become a real stalwart for the Azzurri in recent years as he has been ever present for the national team for several years. In fact, the 32-year-old has started 42 out of his country’s last 44 Tests and played every minute during last year’s impressive Six Nations campaign.
Also keep an eye on excitement machine Ange Capuozzo, who is one of the best attacking players in the Championship blessed with plenty of X-factor and capable of unlocking the tightest of defences. Equally at home at full-back or on the wing, Capuozzo will have the number 14 on his back for this fixture and if he finds himself in space out wide, he should wreak havoc with the ball in hand.
Main head-to-head
Although we mentioned the two fly-halves already, it is important to highlight the influence that Scotland’s Finn Russell and Italy’s Paolo Garbisi will have on this fixture. Both are outstanding players, blessed with superb skill sets, who will be expected to give direction to their respective teams. Russell comes into this encounter after delivering a world-class performance for Premiership table-toppers Bath in their triumph over Sale Sharks but he faces a tough adversary in Garbisi who also impressed for Toulon in their Top 14 victory over La Rochelle on Sunday. Whoever comes out on top in this duel should also finish on the winning side.
Prediction
Although Italy will give a good account of themselves, Scotland will have too much firepower for them with Russell’s playmaking skills to give his side the edge and pave the way to victory for the home side, avoiding a repeat of the 2024 slip-up. Scotland to win by 10 points.
Previous results
2024: Italy won 31-29 in Rome
2023: Scotland won 25-13 at Murrayfield
2023: Scotland won 26-14 at Murrayfield
2022: Scotland won 33-22 in Rome
2021: Scotland won 52-10 at Murrayfield
2020: Scotland won 28-17 in Florence
2020: Scotland won 17-0 in Rome
2019: Scotland won 33-20 at Murrayfield
The teams
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Gregor Brown, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Kyle Rowe
Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Simone Gesi
Date: Saturday, February 1
Venue: Murrayfield
Kick-off: 14:15 GMT
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Luke Pearce (RFU), Damian Schneider (UAR)
TMO: Marius Jonker (SARU)
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