Scotland v Ireland preview: ‘Inconsistent’ Scots’ fail to ‘break the cycle’ as ‘miserable’ run extends to 11 as ‘ruthless’ Irish’s hat-trick bid continues
Our preview of the Six Nations epic between Scotland and Ireland in round two of the Championship.
Round two of the Six Nations leaves the best for last as two teams with title aspirations collide at Murrayfield on Sunday with Scotland hosting defending champions Ireland.
This fixture has been largely one-way traffic in Six Nations history with Scotland defeating Ireland just four times in their 25 Championship meetings.
In fact, the visitors head into the match on a 10-game winning streak, their longest-ever run of victories over the Scots.
However, Gregor Townsend’s men will be confident that they can end that run of defeats and repeat their 2017 efforts at Murrayfield when they clinched a 22-27 victory.
Scotland weren’t at their absolute best in round one but still managed to cruise to a 31-19 victory over a passionate Italian effort and will be eager to continue that momentum in their first home game of the Six Nations.
Meanwhile, Ireland continued their dominance of the tournament as they notched up a 13th win out of a possible 14 in the Championship with interim head coach Simon Easterby’s side claiming a 27-22 victory over England.
It’s far too early to be calling this fixture a title decider but Sunday’s meeting at Murrayfield could make or break the respective teams’ Championship, particularly if France continues their impressive form in Twickenham the day before.
Where the game will be won
One thing is plainly obvious from the two sides’ performances in round one, they both rely heavily on quick-attacking rucks. Ireland were starved of just that in the first half against England and found themselves trailing at the break because of the excellence of the Curry twins and Ben Earl in the rucks. Second-half tweaks saw Easterby’s charges be far more accurate in that facet of the game while the Red Rose substitutes were unable to match the efforts of the starting pack and Ireland ruthlessly took advantage and ran in three tries to clinch the bonus-point victory.
Similar was true for Scotland as they barely gave Italy a sniff of the ball with the Azzurri claiming just three breakdown turnovers while Townsend’s men boasted an impressive 89.12% of their rucks being between 0-3 seconds. In fact, just 12.82% of Scotland’s rucks throughout the match took six seconds or longer.
Conversely, Ireland managed to get 0-3 second ruck speed just 42.35% of the time. If Scotland are to end their woeful run of defeats to the Irish, they will need a similar effort to that of the English at the breakdown.
Both teams were also flawless at set-piece time in round one with Scotland winning all five of their scrums and their 13 lineouts despite being under pressure by the Italian front-row while Ireland won their five scrums and 23 lineouts.
Parity for both sides in the set-pieces will be crucial particularly at lineout time with more than half of the tries in round one coming from the set-piece (11/20) while the scrum has seen a 5% uptick as a try source with four scores coming from that set-piece compared to last year’s competition.
Last time they met
What they said
Scotland head coach Townsend spoke frankly about his team’s ambition to finally get one over Ireland after a sorry run of results.
“Against England, we’ve been there before and won this fixture. It’s something we’re striving to do against Ireland,” he stated.
“We’ve not broke that cycle the last eight or nine years now, it’s hard to break the cycle but once you’ve broken it, it just becomes another match.
“The weight of history between Scotland and England has dissipated, it’s now a game of equals who are competitive against each other. You can’t guarantee the outcome, but for a number of years people expected England to win. We’ll have to be close to our best.”
Interim Ireland boss Easterby is not underestimating the threat that the Scots pose despite the recent success over Townsend’s men as he detailed some of their strengths.
“The last few years under Gregor, they’ve brought a huge amount of intent in their attacking play,” he said. “They’re a very good attacking team.
“Scotland have many threats up front but in particular out wide and in the back row, they’re a really strong attacking team. We need to make sure we’re better without the ball for sure.”
Ireland centre Bundee Aki echoed the sentiments of his coach, issuing a stark warning to his teammates that they cannot switch off as they did in the latter stages of the win over England last week.
“We said that obviously if we switch off like that, in any part of the game, against Scotland, they will rip you apart,” he said.
“If Finn Russell sees those things he will absolutely take you into the gutters, and same as Duhan van der Merwe, Huw Jones, Darcy Graham.
“If anyone sort of switches off, they will absolutely cut you apart. We’ve just got to make sure that we’re mentally prepared, mentally sharp and make sure we’re on top of it from the first whistle to the last.”
Players to watch
The clash at Murrayfield will also serve as a perfect opportunity for British and Irish Lions hopefuls to stamp their mark with Scotland co-captain Rory Darge being a player who will certainly fancy his chances. Darge was in sterling form in round one against Italy, leading the charge with the opening try against the Azzurri in what was an all-action outing. He racked up 13 carries and 12 tackles but what really stood out in his statistics was the number of rucks that he hit and his effectiveness. He racked up a truly impressive 45 ruck entries, 34 on attack (79.4% effectiveness) and 11 on defence.
Darge’s opposing number Josh van der Flier is also squarely in the Lions frame and also enjoyed a strong outing in round one but will be eager to make improvements. The Irish openside made 30 ruck entries against England, 25 of which on attack with a 76% effectiveness rate. It’s worth noting that Scotland (123) had significantly more completed rucks than Ireland (90) with Van der Flier also making more tackles (17) than any of his teammates and just one shy of Ben Curry, who made the most in the fixture.
One of the players that can certainly cut Ireland apart as Aki noted is the livewire Darcy Graham. The wee winger endured a challenging start to the match against Italy but it was his influence with ball in hand that really made the difference against the Azzurri despite the speedster not crossing for a try. Despite his diminutive frame and Italy’s aggressive defence, Graham managed to get gain-line success with 89% of his carries, one of which led to Huw Jones’ crucial third try which swung momentum into Scotland’s favour and proved pivotal in the match’s outcome.
Speaking of Huw Jones, the Scottish midfielder was at his ruthless best last weekend as he raced away for a hat-trick of tries. Concerns were raised about Scotland’s centres without the inspirational and simply sensational Sione Tuipulotu but Jones eased those worries with an outstanding performance against one of the best combinations in European rugby and he will be up against a similar challenge this week.
Dan Sheehan has hit the ground sprinting upon his return from a lengthy injury layoff and is quickly back in the mix as one of the best hookers in international rugby. There is certainly an argument for him being the outright best as he possesses the skills of a backline player but the set-piece accuracy and power of a traditional front-rower. He is surely a nailed-on Lions selection if fit and will be eager to build on the exceptionally high standards he has set after just two games back.
Another nailed-on selection for Farrell this June is that of scrum-half Jamison Gibson-Park, who heads into Sunday’s fixture off the back of yet another man-of-the-match display. Along with James Lowe, Gibson-Park was crucial in driving Ireland to victory over England as they found the weak spots in the new England defence. The livewire number nine is very much the heartbeat of the Irish attack but make no mistake, he is technically and tactically astute too.
Main head to head
As much as the breakdown battle will be crucial at Murrayfield what happens after the ball emerges from the ruck will be deciding the factor with the battle between Scotland’s magician Finn Russell and Ireland’s young ace Sam Prendergast front and centre of their efforts.
Scotland’s entire attack runs through their general Russell who is very much the quarterback and the conductor of their orchestra. The co-captain wasn’t quite hitting the high notes against the Italians and admitted as much in the aftermath but he still created enough opportunities that it did not matter much that his side failed to capitalise on all of them.
Still, he is a much more mature playmaker than he gets credit for with his ‘maverick’ days long gone. His tactical kicking is of an elite level that few can match and has been deadly accurate from the tee. The big question mark for Russell is whether he can tighten up those loose passes and passages of play that hurt Scotland last time out as Ireland will not pass up on any opportunities that come their way.
The same is very much true for Prendergast who does not lack the raw talent to be a truly world-class pivot but does lack the experience and Test match feel that his counterpart possesses. He has several soft moments that England also could not capitalise on and cannot afford to repeat them at Murrayfield. It will also be the first time that he dons the Ireland jersey away from home so the pressure will undoubtedly be squarely on him.
Russell will surely pull out all the stops to make life as difficult as possible for the rookie with his wide-ranging tactical kicking while also sending big ball carriers down his channel and for Ireland, Prendergast will need to problem-solve on the fly.
Prediction
If ever there was an ideal opportunity to end the miserable losing streak against Ireland, it would be now as Scotland have a generational team at home with the visitors void of their usual head coach. However, Scotland had flaws in their performance and were too inconsistent against Italy that they simply would not get away with against a team as ruthless as Ireland. That being said, there is still little separating the two sides that hold high hopes of lifting a trophy this Six Nations but the Irish look just too good and should clinch a one-score, seven-point, victory over the Scots to extend their record-winning run against Townsend’s charges to 11 and continue their charge to an unprecedented hat-trick of Six Nations titles.
Previous results
2024: Ireland won 17-13 in Dublin
2023: Ireland won 22-7 at Murrayfield
2022: Ireland won 26-5 in Dublin
2021: Ireland won 27-24 at Murrayfield
2020: Ireland won 31-16 in Dublin
2020: Ireland won 19-12 in Dublin
2019: Ireland won 27-3 in Yokohama
2019: Ireland won 22-13 at Murrayfield
2018: Ireland won 28-8 in Dublin
The teams
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Rory Sutherland
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 Jamie Ritchie, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Stafford McDowall
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Ryan Baird, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Garry Ringrose
Venue: Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Kick-off: 15:00 GMT
Referee: James Doleman (NZR)
Assistant Referees: Ben O’Keeffe (NZR), Pierre Brousset (FFR)
TMO: Richard Kelly (NZR)
FPRO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
Broadcasters: BBC, France Télévisions, RTÉ, Sky Sport / TV8 (Italy), Supersport (Africa), WOWOW (Japan), Premier Sports (Pan Asia), Stan Sport (Australia), Sky NZ (New Zealand), DAZN (Canada), NBC / Peacock / FuboTV (USA)
