Rugby World Cup: Unpacking the knockout spot permutations

The Rugby World Cup pool stage is racing to its conclusion and things are now heating up as the best sides from across the globe fight for a spot in the knockouts.

Planet Rugby takes a closer look at the permutations for each pool, finding out who can qualify for the next stage and what they need to get there.

Pool A

Host nation, France, lead the first pool after solid wins over New Zealand, Uruguay and Namibia in their opening three matches. This weekend they have a rest whilst the team gears up for their final clash against Italy. Les Bleus are almost certain to qualify and a surprise win for Italy over the All Blacks could hand that to them.

The All Blacks are not in as great a position as they would have liked but responded to their loss to France with a drumming of Namibia. It’s a crunch game for them this weekend against the Azzurri who lead them in the pool standings. If New Zealand beat Italy they will likely progress as a win is expected against Uruguay whilst the Azzurri may not have enough against France.

For Italy, their strong start against the two weaker sides in Uruguay and Namibia does not translate into knockout rugby if they do not beat New Zealand this weekend. A loss would mean that in order for them to qualify Italy would have to beat France while the All Blacks would also need to lose to Uruguay. An important game for Kieran Crowley’s side.

Uruguay and Namibia have no chance of exiting this stage of the competition but caught the eye with their ever-improving standard of play. The South Americans in particular have gained more fans from their passionate displays.

Pool B

The next group is a bit tighter with Ireland leading the way after a narrow win against South Africa last weekend. Having already beaten the two lower teams, the world’s top-ranked side are expected to top the pool which should be simple if they beat Scotland in their final game. Two points secures knockout rugby.

For South Africa it was important in the context of the group for them to beat Scotland in the opener which they did, meaning a bonus point win against Tonga should get them over the line with a total of 15 points. However, there is a scenario where Ireland, South Africa and Scotland all end on 15 points. If Scotland gets two bonus-point wins against Romania and also Ireland they end on 15 and if, in the final game, Ireland gets a losing bonus point they will end on 15. If this were the case the two teams with the best points difference will advance.

Scotland can also go through ahead of South Africa if the Springboks fail to get a bonus-point win against Tonga and then the Scots get two bonus-point wins (against Romania and Ireland), with Ireland getting a four-try and a losing bonus point against Scotland.

Tonga and Romania have no way of advancing out of a very difficult group.

Pool C

Wales were the first team to qualify for the knockout stages following brilliant performances against Fiji, Australia and Portugal that included a record victory over the Wallabies. They just have Georgia to play ahead of the knockouts.

It is a golden opportunity for Fiji to advance with a win over Georgia this weekend. That would take them clear and secure the second spot regardless of Australia’s result. The side still has the game with Portugal after that and should be expected to secure qualification.

A disastrous campaign for Eddie Jones’ Wallabies sees the side praying other results will go their way to make it through. However, it is extremely unlikely as they will need Fiji to lose twice against Georgia and Portugal, with them beating the latter with a bonus point. It is unlikely and the Wallabies could be heading for their first pool stage exit in history.

Georgia has a very outside chance of making it through with wins against both Wales and Fiji required, with both of them realistically needing to be with bonus points. Meanwhile, Portugal have no way of progressing.

Pool D

England have taken hold of the final pool with brilliant wins against Argentina, Japan and Chile, meaning they only need a point to qualify when they face Samoa next weekend. Their high points difference is a huge asset but one would expect the side to qualify top of the group.

Japan have been neat enough so far after beating Chile in their only win. Their equation is simple – beat both Samoa and Argentina to qualify. For Samoa, they need some help to get through with wins against Japan and Chile not enough. It would require Argentina to lose one of their last two against Chile and Japan. Los Pumas will know that for them to qualify it is simply two wins required.

Chile have no way of advancing but have shown incredible heart in their maiden campaign.

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