Rugby Championship: What the Springboks and Argentina need in the final round to win the title
We run through the permutations of the final weekend as the Springboks and Argentina hunt for the title.
With one round to go in the Rugby Championship, we run through the permutations of the final weekend with the Springboks and Argentina still in the running for the title.
After defeating Australia and New Zealand twice in the opening four rounds of the tournament, South Africa were on the cusp of winning the Rugby Championship when they tackled Los Pumas in Argentina.
However, a 29-28 defeat to Felipe Contepomi’s charges meant that both teams remained in the hunt for the title ahead of the final round.
The Springboks lead the charge in the standings, followed by Argentina, New Zealand and Australia, respectively as we take a look at the permutations for the final round of action.
2024 Rugby Championship permutations
South Africa (19) hold a five-point buffer over Argentina ahead of the Nelspruit showdown and require just one point from the fixture in order to seal a first Rugby Championship title since 2019.
A loss by seven points will be enough for the Boks to become the first time other than New Zealand to win a full Rugby Championship with South Africa (in 2019) and Australia (in 2015) winning truncated titles in World Cup years.
In the rare event that the Springboks outscore Argentina by three or more tries and still lose, they will still win the title as the Pumas cannot match South Africa’s then 20 competition points. A win of any kind or a draw will also see the Springboks secure the 2024 Rugby Championship.
As for Argentina, they will not only need to claim back-to-back wins over the Springboks to win the title but will need to do so convincingly.
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Contepomi’s team requires five competition points (a win plus, a try bonus) in order to win the Rugby Championship for the first time since their introduction in 2012, but they also need to deny South Africa any points as well. In other words, Argentina must beat the Springboks by more than seven points and score three tries more than South Africa in order to clinch the title. If Los Pumas are successful in doing just that, they will match South Africa’s 19 competition points and be crowned champions regardless of their points difference.
Rugby Championship tournament rules state: “The position on the competition table will be determined by the team with the most wins against the other team/s tied on the same points.”
All Blacks v Wallabies
Meanwhile, Australia will prop up the Rugby Championship standings for a second time since Argentina’s inclusion in 2012 – excluding the 2021 Tri Nations.
Joe Schmidt’s team has won just one match this tournament, beating Argentina 19-20 in round three which sees them enter the final round with just five competition points. They are six points adrift of third-placed New Zealand meaning regardless of the result in Wellington, they cannot overtake the All Blacks.
However, second place is within reach of the All Blacks but they will need their rivals South Africa to defeat the Pumas in Nelspruit. Even if Argentina secure a losing bonus point, New Zealand (11) can catch the Pumas (14) with a victory over Australia.
In the event, that All Blacks and Argentina finish on the same number of competition points, New Zealand will be the higher placed nation having scored more points against Los Pumas than they conceded in the two Test matches between the two sides [All Blacks 72-48 Los Pumas].
2024 could be a historic year for the Pumas even if they do not defeat the Springboks and win the title, they could finish in second-place finish which will be their highest-ever in a Rugby Championship tournament having finished third in 2015 and 2023.
READ MORE: Springboks surrender top spot in the world rankings, Australia drop to joint all-time low
2024 Rugby Championship Results
Round One
Australia 7-33 South Africa
New Zealand 30-38 Argentina
Round Two
New Zealand 42-10 Argentina
Australia 12-30 South Africa
Round Three
South Africa 31-27 New Zealand
Argentina 19-20 Australia
Round Four
South Africa 18-12 New Zealand
Argentina 67-27 Australia
Round Five
Australia 28-31 New Zealand
Argentina 29-28 South Africa
Round Six – Still to be played
New Zealand – Australia
South Africa Argentina
Rugby Championship tournament rules
Points will be awarded in all TRC matches on the following basis:
Win: 4 points
Draw: 2 points
Loss: 0 points for loss of more than 7 points
Try Bonus: 1 point for 3 tries or more than opponent
Losing Bonus: 1 point for loss within 7 points or less
The position on the competition table shall be determined as follows:
1. In the event of two or more teams being equal on competition points for any position on the competition table, such position shall be determined by the team with the most wins in the series.
2. In the event of (a) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined by the team with the most wins against the other team/s tied on the same points.
3. In the event of (b) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the margin of points scored for and against in the series. The team with the highest margin of points scored for and against being considered as the winner.
3. In the event of (c) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the margin of points scored for and against by those competing teams. The team with the highest margin of points scored for and against being considered as the winner.
4. In the event of (d) above not providing a decision, the position on the competition table will be determined on the basis of the team scoring most tries in the series.
5. In the event of (e) above not providing a decision, the Series shall be shared between the two teams.