Rugby Championship preview: Ian Foster to remain in situ as All Blacks edge past Argentina

Colin Newboult

And just like that, Ian Foster is back under pressure.

After just one match, the All Blacks – and especially Argentina, who were utterly brilliant last weekend – proved why it was absolutely ridiculous for New Zealand Rugby to back the head coach right through until the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

In their naivety, the governing body felt the pain was over having already played Ireland and South Africa – two of the best sides in the world – and hoped a supposedly easier schedule would take some of the pressure away.

It has now had the opposite effect after the three-time world champions succumbed to a home defeat to Los Pumas, with eyes very much on Foster once again. They are back to square one and another defeat could signal the end of the 57-year-old’s time in charge of the set-up.

We have been here before, however. Prior to the second South Africa Test, Foster had one game to save his job but the players responded, producing an outstanding display to earn a 35-23 triumph.

The head honcho is perhaps not at that point going into this clash, quite simply due to the apparent trust NZ Rugby placed in him following that Ellis Park Test, but equally there comes a point where they simply have to make the hard decision.

They have consistently shied away from making the tough call and drawn the ire of the fans in the process, almost leaving us at the point where keeping Foster is simply indefensible. Supporters will quite rightly ask, ‘if successive home defeats to Argentina doesn’t see him depart, what would?’

Foster remains in situ, though, and he and the All Blacks players still have the opportunity to prove the critics wrong, starting this weekend.

What the South Americans did in Christchurch was remarkable, becoming the first Los Pumas outfit to beat the All Blacks on New Zealand soil, but we, and no doubt everyone else, wonders whether they can do it again.

Michael Cheika has done a superb job early in his tenure, getting the fundamentals in place and making the Argentinians a very competitive international side.

They no doubt enjoyed last Saturday’s result but Cheika is a demanding coach and wants to see his players back up that result. The question is whether the team will be in the right frame of mind to do just that after making history a week prior.

If Argentina can invest the same emotional energy in this encounter then they have an excellent opportunity, but it will be very difficult to repeat.

Last time they met

Argentina stunned the hosts to secure their first-ever victory over the All Blacks on New Zealand soil, claiming a 25-18 victory in Christchurch. Los Pumas’ win was built on a mammoth defensive effort, but they were breached twice in the opening period as Samisoni Taukei’aho and Caleb Clarke both touched down. However, the South Americans continued to battle and were only three points in arrears at the break thanks to four Emiliano Boffelli penalties. Although Richie Mo’unga extended that buffer, Juan Martin Gonzalez’s try, allied by eight more points from the boot of Boffelli, saw them seal a stunning triumph.

What they said

All Blacks boss Foster wants his side to show a bit more composure in the final quarter having faltered in the opening Test against Argentina.

“It’s an area that great All Blacks teams have always been good, in that last 15 minutes, backing themselves and doing the right thing,” he said.

“If you look at (the win against) South Africa, we stayed calm, we stayed in the moment in that last 20, and even under a little bit of scoreboard pressure, we stuck to trusting the decisions that we made.

“I thought last week we went away from that a little bit. It’s frustrating, isn’t it? And it’s something that we’re working hard on, to grow the confidence of that last part of the game. To make sure that we embrace those moments, but also stay really clear in our decision making.”

Argentina head coach Cheika has laughed off the idea that they are now favourites for the second Test following their incredible victory last weekend.

“Mate, we’re in New Zealand, playing against New Zealand,” he told reporters.

“I know that you guys like to manoeuvre the story around, but we’re about as underdog as you get. You win once, and then no one expects you to win again.

“There’s absolutely no benefit for any of us to think about anything like that.”

Cheika also revealed the reasons for his changes. While New Zealand have interestingly named an unaltered XV, Los Pumas have brought in Santiago Cordero, Tomas Cubelli, Santiago Grondona and Guido Petti.

“There were different reasons for all of them, some relating to the competition that we’re having inside of the team and we’re trying to reward training performance as well,” Cheika added.

“And also just some things about how we want the team to set up this week with different combinations. It’s been a good week in training and it’s getting harder to pick the team every week.”

Players to watch

It’s fascinating to see Foster select the same XV, but we can understand the logic as continually chopping and changing is not necessarily the answer. There were arguments for Quinn Tupaea to start ahead of David Havili, with Dalton Papali’i and the returning Brodie Retallick also in line to feature in the run-on side, but the head coach has instead placed his trust in the team that were defeated last weekend. It means that he requires a reaction from some of his key players, perhaps most notably Richie Mo’unga and captain Sam Cane.

Mo’unga produced a majestic display in South Africa, seemingly cementing the spot ahead of two-time World Rugby Player of the Year Beauden Barrett, but the Crusaders fly-half struggled on home turf in Christchurch. The 28-year-old failed to control the contest, his game lacked variety and his decision-making was poor. With Barrett returning to the squad after missing out through injury last Saturday, Mo’unga needs a big performance in Hamilton.

The same goes for Cane, whose form has been poor throughout the year. His efforts in the second Test in South Africa hinted at a player who still had a Test future, but he failed to make an impact against Argentina and questions remain over his position. The flanker is another that simply has to perform or there is Papali’i waiting in the wings to potentially take his place. The 30-year-old may be the skipper but he is not undroppable and is playing for his international future in this Rugby Championship campaign.

In contrast to Foster, Cheika has made a few changes, hinting that he wants to see an improvement in their attacking game. While the win was historic, it was very much based on defence and the Aussie, who has always advocated a ball-in-hand approach, no doubt wants to see them develop in that area. As a result, they have brought the fleet-footed Santiago Cordero into the backline to add pace, balance and a real threat on the wing.

Up front, there are some technical aspects to the introduction of Santiago Grondona and Guido Petti, who will look to shore up their lineout, but they are also better ball carriers than Gonzalez and Matias Alemanno. Although last weekend’s try-scorer Gonzalez is athletic, Grondona is better in close quarters and will help dominate the gain line in attack, something they struggled to do in Christchurch. Petti, meanwhile, is an excellent all-round lock, who can operate well in both the tight and the loose, and at his best is one of the best second-rows in the world.

If they can generate that front foot ball, it will help new scrum-half Tomas Cubelli immensely. Gonzalo Bertranou was very good last weekend but he did not dominate the game as Cheika would have liked, so the head coach will hope Cubelli gives them a bit more zip at the base of the ruck and more control with the kicking game.

Main head-to-head

Argentina’s defence won them the game last weekend, where it was brilliantly marshalled by Matias Moroni. The outside centre requires another big performance on Saturday, especially as Joe Schmidt has another week to analyse where to attack Los Pumas’ rearguard. Moroni superbly shut down the dangerous Rieko Ioane in Christchurch, who had shone against the Springboks two weeks earlier, but this will arguably be an even bigger test.

The Argentinian midfield maestro is such a smart operator and reads the game so well, but there is no substitute for pace and that is what the All Blacks man brings. Ioane is so hard to stop in space and if New Zealand can find a way of stretching that visiting defence, the 25-year-old could wreak havoc. He is arguably still a better wing than he is a centre, but the speedster has developed nicely in that midfield position over the past 12 months and will be a difficult player to stop on Saturday.

Prediction

We got it badly wrong last weekend so go into this slightly tentatively, but surely Argentina can’t do it again? The thing is, the All Blacks had a much better platform to play from in Christchurch, it’s just that they made some bad decisions with the ball. Therefore, if they can just tidy up some of those errors and improve their execution, they will take the win, but it won’t be convincing. New Zealand by eight points.

Previous results

2022: Argentina won 25-18 in Christchurch
2021: New Zealand won 36-13 in Brisbane
2021: New Zealand won 39-0 on the Gold Coast
2020: New Zealand won 38-0 in Newcastle
2020: Argentina won 25-15 in Sydney
2019: New Zealand won 20-16 in Buenos Aires
2018: New Zealand won 35-17 in Buenos Aires
2018: New Zealand won 46-24 in Nelson
2017: New Zealand won 36-10 in Buenos Aires

The teams

New Zealand: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 David Havili, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Brodie Retallick, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Quinn Tupaea

Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Emiliano Boffelli, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Matias Orlando, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Santiago Grondona, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julian Montoya (c), 1 Thomas Gallo
Replacements: 16 Santiago Socino, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 21 Gonzalo Bertranou, 22 Benjamin Urdapilleta, 23 Lucio Cinti

Date: Saturday, September 3
Venue: FMG Stadium, Hamilton
Kick-off: 19:05 local (08:05 BST, 07:05 GMT)
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)

READ MORE: Five talking points ahead of All Blacks v Pumas as stronger New Zealand bench could be key