Preview: Ireland v New Zealand

Editor

Arguably the biggest game of the 2018 November Test series takes place on Saturday as Ireland host New Zealand at the Aviva Stadium.

It is a match neutral observers were looking forward to the most heading into the end-of-year Tests, following the exploits of Joe Schmidt’s men in the Six Nations and on tour to Australia, where they defeated the Wallabies 2-1.

After the All Blacks’ narrow escape at Twickenham and their struggles with South Africa in the Rugby Championship, hopes are high that the Emerald Isle can overcome the world champions.

Success against New Zealand has been rare for Ireland but this is an outstanding team and one which defeated the 2011 and ’15 World Cup winners relatively recently.

That victory in Chicago was a landmark triumph as they beat the southern hemisphere outfit for the first time ever, ending their hoodoo in style with a 40-29 victory.

There was a caveat, however, and that was shown a fortnight later when a full-strength side were too strong for the hosts, going away from Dublin 21-9 winners in a bruising encounter. At Soldier Field, Ireland dismantled a New Zealand line-out shorn of two greats of the game in Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock, but those two returned to help shore up the set-piece.

As England found out, they are comfortably the best lock pairing in the world and it will be a significant challenge for one of the home team’s rising stars. James Ryan has been exceptional since arriving on the scene, rarely losing a game for either province or country, but this will be his biggest test.

Another factor which could prevent them from repeating their heroics from two years ago is the absence of Conor Murray. The Munster scrum-half was instrumental in that performance in America and they have sometimes struggled without him on the field.

Kieran Marmion is a regular standout for Connacht in the PRO14 but his kicking game is not consistently at Murray’s level. That territorial game is crucial for the Six Nations outfit as they look to build pressure and dominate possession inside the opposition half.

Steve Hansen’s men will capitalise should Marmion stray, with Rieko Ioane, Ben Smith and Damian McKenzie a lethal back three combination. Ryan Crotty also strengthens their backline, coming in for the injured Sonny Bill Williams and rekindling his partnership with fellow Crusader Jack Goodhue.

That, combined with a formidable front five, makes the visitors a fearsome proposition but, unlike England, the Emerald Isle could have a scrum to put the world champions under pressure.

The Red Rose did well to contain the All Blacks’ front-row for the most part last Saturday but, in Tadhg Furlong, Ireland have one of the best props around and he will challenge the capabilities of Karl Tu’inukuafe.

Should Furlong and co. manage to gain the upper hand then that will make Marmion’s life a lot easier but New Zealand should still have enough quality to emerge victorious on Saturday.

Players to watch:

For Ireland: The absence of Robbie Henshaw is a blow, with the centre an excellent defender, but Garry Ringrose gives them slightly more creativity in the midfield. Of course, the Henshaw-Ringrose partnership, which has been a key component of the Leinster side, may have been the preferred option, but Schmidt is clearly a fan of Bundee Aki and may have liked the power and solidity those two would have brought. Instead, it is Aki and Ringrose who are paired and it provides a nice balance. Like England, who so nearly defeated the All Blacks, Ireland will need to score tries to overcome the world champions and the Leinster centre’s selection will allow them to play slightly wider if they so wish.

For New Zealand: After an aerial bombardment from England last weekend, the All Blacks will expect the same against Ireland and it will be interesting to see how Damian McKenzie fares after the struggles of the previous week. McKenzie was generally outstanding in that game, causing problems for the Red Rose with his running game, but he and his back three colleagues did have issues under the high ball, particularly in the first-half. Murray is out, which will no doubt help the visitors, but the Chiefs playmaker will need to improve in the air.

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Head-to-head: As intimated above, it’s all about that scrum-half position and how Kieran Marmion can step up with the world-class Murray on the sidelines. Ben Youngs managed to put the All Blacks back three under pressure with his kicking game but can the Connacht man repeat what England’s half-back did in the first-half of the match last weekend? The usually inimitable Aaron Smith is opposite Marmion but he hasn’t quite been at his best recently and needs to re-find his form on Saturday. Smith, who himself has one of the best kicking games around, wasn’t quite on point against the Red Rose, but it is still a big task for Marmion to match the 29-year-old.

Previous results:

2016: New Zealand won 21-9 in Dublin
2016: Ireland won 40-29 in Chicago
2013: New Zealand won 24-22 in Dublin
2012: New Zealand won 60-0 in Hamilton
2012: New Zealand won 22-19 in Christchurch
2012: New Zealand won 42-10 in Auckland
2010: New Zealand won 38-18 in Dublin
2010: New Zealand won 66-28 in New Plymouth

Prediction: Murray’s absence is significant while Crotty’s inclusion will improve the All Blacks, but it should still be close. New Zealand by five.

The teams:

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Kieran Marmion, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Devin Toner, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Andrew Porter, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Jordi Murphy, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Jordan Larmour

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Matt Todd, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Richie Mo’unga, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown

Date: Saturday, November 17
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Kick-off: 19:00 GMT
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (France), Marius Mitrea (Italy)
TMO: Rowan Kitt (England)