Premiership: Seven bold predictions for the new season including the title winners and underachievers
Ahead of the start of the Premiership campaign, we delve into some of the big and perhaps surprising stories that could transpire in the new season.
Bristol Bears to claim the title
As ever, competition looks fierce in England’s top-tier and no doubt the West Countrymen will be among those competing for the play-off places. Following their summit finish in 2020/21, it did not go well for the Bears last season as they ended the campaign in 10th, but we boldly predict much better things for Pat Lam’s men this time around.
As evidenced by their efforts a couple of years ago, they obviously have the ability to beat the best the Premiership has to offer and if, anything, their squad has been strengthened since then. The addition of the genuinely world-class Ellis Genge is huge, while Lam will hope the injury issues which plagued them during the previous season do not continue.
If they can keep their best players fit, Bristol have the talent to beat anybody. They play a thrilling brand of rugby and, if their confidence returns, the Ashton Gate-based outfit will be difficult to stop. Sometimes they tend to overplay but, with AJ MacGinty at fly-half, who was key in helping Lam’s Connacht claim the PRO12 title in 2016, he will provide that control and consistency in the crucial decision-making position.
Exeter Chiefs to falter again
Most understandably have Exeter in the top-four reckoning, given their record over the past few years. They missed out on the play-offs last season, however, and there are certain questions which still remain around the Chiefs’ prospects. Some will think that what happened last season was just a blip but we are not so sure.
Exeter have had difficult moments before – every top team does – but they were previously rectified pretty quickly. The issue in 2021/22 was that it was more systemic and mediocrity became a key theme of their campaign. Excellent performances were few and far between, leaving them out of the title race as they finished in seventh place.
Rob Baxter’s men seemed to suffer from the law change which sees the ball being held up over the line result in a goal line dropout. It meant that they struggled to keep the opponents under persistent duress and also added pressure on their own game. The Chiefs will certainly need to adapt or else another difficult campaign beckons.
Tom Pearson to claim the player of the year award
With current British internationals rarely in the running for this award due to their Test commitments in November and the Six Nations, thinking outside the box is often a good option. Pearson is on the fringes of the England squad but there is so much competition for the openside slot that it will take something remarkable for him to be regularly involved in Eddie Jones’ matchday sides.
We certainly see him as a bolter for the Rugby World Cup, however, and that will come with a stunning season for London Irish. Many no doubt think that if an Exiles player is going to claim this title, it will be Henry Arundell but, let’s be honest, the teenage sensation is going to be a fixture of the Red Rose squad over the next year.
Pearson only turned his attention to professional rugby last year, joining the club from Cardiff Metropolitan University, but his development has been outstanding. The 22-year-old is strong at the breakdown and has a wonderful work ethic on the field, but he is also an incredible ball carrier. He has the all-round game to be one of the best in England.
Galvanised Worcester Warriors to not finish bottom
Given their financial struggles, anything other than survival as a club would be remarkable, but we think good things are around the corner if new owners come in. For starters, Steve Diamond is the best person for their current position. This is certainly his toughest test yet but the abrasive director of rugby knows how to build a team on a small budget and find ways of competing against the biggest names in the Premiership.
That has already been shown in the signings he has made ahead of the current campaign. Providing they can keep the majority of their squad, this could well be the most competitive Worcester squad yet. The players who have joined are not star signings but they are proven performers that will provide real steel to the team.
Curtis Langdon and Cameron Neild bring Premiership experience while Fergus Lee-Warner and Santiago Medrano from Western Force are also smart additions. To complete their incomings are Hame Faiva, Renato Giammarioli and Valery Morozov – two Italian internationals and a Russian powerhouse. They are all forwards and are attempting to address the weaknesses of the previous few years, where the side lacked a backbone.
TOGETHER pic.twitter.com/ccO9pEDgxK
— Steve Diamond (@Steve_Dimes) September 5, 2022
Jack Singleton to finish as top try-scorer
Max Malins finished top last season with 16 tries and wingers are often a safe bet, but the driving maul continues to be a potent weapon and hookers were there or thereabouts. Both George McGuigan and Agustin Creevy were just behind Malins in the pecking order and this year we think Singleton will be up there.
Gloucester arguably have the best lineout drive in the competition and the 26-year-old is becoming increasingly vital to their cause. After joining from Worcester in 2020, the England international has established himself as their first choice hooker and managed to touch down eight times during the previous campaign. He should once again benefit from the Cherry and Whites’ forward excellence and help himself to a few more as he latches on to the back of the maul.
Premiership struggles to continue in Champions Cup despite Saracens’ return
After two years away from Europe’s top-tier competition, the Londoners are back and are probably England’s best hope of ending the country’s Champions Cup disappointment. Since Exeter Chiefs lifted the title in 2020 – a year Sarries also reached the semi-finals – the Premiership has had no teams in the last-four of the competition.
France has dominated, with Leinster, who are awash with Ireland stars, the only side really to match the excellence of those sides. Saracens will therefore look to spare England’s blushes once again, especially with Exeter struggling last season, while some fancy Leicester Tigers to give it a good go this year.
But the big issue remains and that is simply the squad depth of all the respective clubs. With the reduction in salary cap forcing teams to cut their cloth accordingly, it will be very difficult for even the likes of Sarries to compete on two fronts. The Premiership should get several sides into the knockout stages, but going from the last-16 and quarter-finals to the semis and final may prove a step too far for the third campaign in a row.
Ealing Trailfinders to be a Premiership team
Premiership Rugby ‘planned’ to expand the league to 14 teams in 2022/23, opening the door to a team from the Championship to get promoted. Ealing finished top, winning that right, but they were subsequently denied on the basis of their ground size. The rules require each club to have a capacity of at least 10,000, while Trailfinders Sports Ground only holds 4,000.
Ealing weren’t particularly happy with the decision and neither was much of the English rugby community. The Londoners are an ambitious but well run club and it seemed a rather petty regulation from the governing body, especially considering the financial issues at Wasps and Worcester Warriors.
With those two teams struggling under their watch and their futures ultimately under threat, the pressure is only increasing on Premiership Rugby. It would therefore seem particularly churlish to deny Ealing once more should they again finish at the summit of the Championship table. However many teams start the 2023/24 campaign, whether it’s 14, 13 or 12, the winners of England’s second-tier should be there.