Premiership play-off race: Who has the edge and will Mark McCall’s European gamble pay off?
Handre Pollard's Leicester Tigers and George Ford's Sale Sharks are in the Premiership play-off race.
It’s getting hot at the top of the Premiership with the battle for the top four play-off places intensifying.
Five rounds remain and every result and bonus point matters, with only the top four placed teams making the semi-finals before the Premiership Final at Allianz Stadium on June 14.
Bath are cruising at the top of the table on 56 points, 10 clear of second place and with Exeter Chiefs and Newcastle Falcons their next two fixtures – they are all but confirmed for a coveted home semi-final.
Despite their weekend thumping away to Gloucester, Bristol Bears are primed nicely in second place with a five-point sandwich and a league-leading 14 bonus points this year thanks to their prolific try-scoring form.
Early season showings made the premature exit from the race inevitable for the Chiefs and Falcons but the surprising demise of Northampton Saints has been a shock to many as they haven’t been able to back up their form of last year.
Their 27-24 loss to Sale Sharks on Friday evening means they now mathematically can’t reach the play-off places with five fixtures to go – something that definitely wasn’t on our Premiership bingo cards at the start of the season.
The excitement of the run-in lies in the middle of the table; five teams separate third and seventh place with just four points between them.
But which side has the better run-in, the most fixtures at home and the more favourable opponents – which players will be key?
Planet Rugby has analysed each team’s outlook as we head down the final stretch.
Harlequins – 7th place on 37 points
Remaining fixtures: Sale Sharks (H), Leicester Tigers (A), Gloucester (H), Exeter Chiefs (H) and Bristol Bears (A).
Harlequins will have three home games to finish their season including a huge crunch match against Gloucester at Allianz Stadium on May 10.
Outgoing director of rugby, Billy Millard, will know that winning at least all of their remaining home fixtures will be essential if they are to close the advantage that their fellow play-off chasers have over them.
But this looks a tall task. They start against Sale, a team who they have lost to on both occasions in their last two meetings, albeit with a losing bonus point each time.
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They will then face Gloucester in a split crowd at Twickenham, who are in red hot try-scoring form having touched down 57 times this season.
A final home game against Exeter presents an opportunity but with four tough home and away fixtures elsewhere, a win against the Chiefs could be merely consolation.
Who will be key?
With Marcus Smith desperate to prove his credentials ahead of the Lions tour and a young backline that’s had its moments of magic – an in-form Quins attack through Smith could reap rewards in the run-in.
Saracens – 6th place on 39 points
Remaining fixtures: Gloucester (H), Sale Sharks (A), Newcastle Falcons (H), Northampton Saints (A) and Bath (H).
Mark McCall has thrust forward Saracens’ play-off intentions by announcing that he will rest all of the side’s England internationals in their upcoming European Champions Cup quarter-final against Toulon.
The side has a mixed bag of fixtures and will hope to land wins in their first four to ensure their fate doesn’t come down to a trip to the Rec to face an imperious Bath side in the final match, a team that have been virtually untouchable at home.
Newcastle at home and Northampton away are fixtures where they will be desperate for maximum points.
They’ve beaten Gloucester in all of their last five fixtures and would hope that unleashing their freshly rested English contingent will get them on a roll as they push to return to their Premiership-winning heights.
Who will be key?
McCall’s English stars have had a commanding Six Nations and were instrumental in their big win against Leicester yesterday. The likes of skipper Maro Itoje as well as Jamie George, Ben Earl and Tom Willis in the engine room will be key in giving them the upper hand up front.
Sale Sharks – 5th place on 39 points
Remaining fixtures: Harlequins (A), Saracens (H), Leicester Tigers (A), Bristol Bears (H) and Exeter Chiefs (A).
The Salford Community Stadium seems to come to life, powered by Northern spirit, every time that the reinvigorated outfit makes a play-off push.
Alex Sanderson’s side lost to in the semis last year having been runners up the season before and with arguably their two toughest fixtures being at home against Saracens and Bristol, they will be striving to deliver at their Mancunian fortress.
While having three of their five matches away from home isn’t an advantage, many up North will feel winning their two home games, a winnable visit to Exeter and getting over the line against at least one of Harlequins or Leicester on the road could be enough.
Sale have beaten Leicester in all of their five previous encounters and what a difference extending that to six could make.
It would be a very Sale Sharks thing to secure a play-off berth.
Who will be key?
George Ford. When the going gets tough, the tough get going, and as we all know having Ford is like having a coach on the field – he has what it takes to get things done.
Gloucester – 4th place on 41 points
Remaining fixtures: Saracens (A), Exeter Chiefs (H), Harlequins (A), Newcastle Falcons (A) and Northampton Saints (H).
It’s been a remarkable season for Gloucester following their miserable losing streak this time last year.
They’ve managed to supplement their blistering attack with some competitive defence and will be licking their chops when looking at their run-in.
Gloucester’s strength is in their ability to create tries but also their fortress – Kingsholm.
A notoriously tough place to play, if the Shed is pumping and Gloucester are shipping the ball left to right, it seems very doable that they can win their two remaining home fixtures.
Newcastle on the road is a must, Saracens and Quins could be where their push is won or lost.
Who will be key?
Their rampant backline has been romping all season, the Kingsholm faithful know that the continued form of Tomos Williams, Santiago Carreras and Seb Atkinson will be key for those to thrive around them in the run in.
Leicester Tigers – 3rd place on 41 points
Remaining fixtures: Bristol Bears (A), Harlequins (H), Sale Sharks (H), Bath (A) and Newcastle Falcons (H).
Leicester are playing well and there’s one thing for certain – Michael Cheika wants to conquer England.
Despite their form, it’s an imperious run-in for the Tigers, whose fans will be looking at the next four fixtures nervously.
Their two away fixtures come against Bristol and Bath who top the table, their only saving grace looks likely to be hoping that the Bears have been rattled by their mauling at Kingsholm on Saturday evening.
If results go their way, combined with their current slim points advantage over their rivals, Leicester may have it all to play for on the final day.
And with Newcastle at Mattioli Woods Welford Road their final outing, they’d be dreaming of sealing their top-four spot with a resounding win on home turf.
Who will be key?
The impetus of their half-back pairing will be vital, Jack van Poortvliet has refound some scintillating form and with a two-time World Cup winner in Handre Pollard outside him, his experience in must-win matches may get them over the line.
