Premiership: Five storylines to follow during the penultimate round including the race for the play-offs

Colin Newboult

Ahead of the penultimate round of the Premiership season, Planet Rugby delves into the weekend’s action and picks out our five storylines to follow from the five games.

Final play-off place on the line

Going into Round 22, Saracens had already sealed their place in the end of season shake-up, but over that weekend they were joined by Sale Sharks, who defeated Bristol Bears, and effectively Leicester Tigers. Although not mathematically assured of a position in the top-four, it is pretty much impossible that Northampton Saints will be able to overturn their massive points differential in their game with Newcastle Falcons on Friday.

The Saints end their campaign this weekend knowing that a win will give them a big chance of qualifying for the play-offs. With London Irish away at Saracens, a victory for the Midlanders, combined with a defeat for the Exiles, will make sure of a semi-final against Sarries.

Of course, a defeat to Newcastle would be catastrophic for Phil Dowson’s men, opening the door, not just for Irish but for Harlequins as well, who could sneak into the top-four with successive bonus-point victories.

Quins face Bath this weekend before finishing with an encounter against Leicester. Should they emerge triumphant on Saturday and both Northampton and the Exiles lose then it sets up a mouth-watering final round, with just a few points separating Saints, Irish and Harlequins.

History beckons for Sale Sharks

Alex Sanderson’s men may have stuttered over recent weeks but they approached somewhere near their best in their win over Bristol, a result which secured their place in the play-offs. After reaching one milestone, the Greater Manchester outfit will be searching for their next landmark as they seek to gain a home semi-final.

It is something they have not achieved since their title-winning run in 2006, as they defeated Wasps and Leicester Tigers on their way to lifting the silverware. Under the guidance of Sanderson, Sale are getting back to that level and are in an excellent position to repeat that triumph.

Gloucester stand in their way this weekend but, on form, the Sharks will very much fancy their chances of making sure of a match at the AJ Bell Stadium in the last-four. Even if they don’t achieve their target at Kingsholm, they can still do so when they face Newcastle in the final round of the campaign.

Alongside Saracens, they have been the best teams in the Premiership this season, with Sale’s immense forward power and suffocating defence their main strengths. They may not have the all-round game of Sarries but they do have the physicality to overwhelm Mark McCall’s side, especially in a one-off contest.

Wings’ try-scoring battle

At the top of the try-scorers chart stands Cadan Murley and Mateo Carreras, who have touched down 13 times each. It looks like a straight fight between those two players for the honour of being the Premiership’s best poacher, with Tommy Freeman and Harry Thacker a decent way behind on 10 apiece.

Murley just missed out to Max Malins last season so he will be determined to right that wrong this time around. However, the Newcastle man is presenting stern competition having enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2022/23. Carreras is also being helped by his Falcons team-mates, who are doing everything they can to take him to the top of the list.

Coincidently, Quins faced Newcastle last weekend, with the hosts touching down eight times to the visitors’ twice, but none of them were scored by Murley. Carreras did, however, get on the scoresheet as he moved level with the Englishman, but only thanks to the generosity of Adam Radwan, who passed the ball to him to score when already over the whitewash. It will be interesting to see if that theme continues over the final two rounds.

Exeter’s Champions Cup qualification danger

The Devonians may well be in the semi-finals of Europe’s top-tier competition this season but they are perilously close to missing out in 2023/24. Of course, winning it would get them automatic qualification but that is a mightily difficult task, with La Rochelle and then either Leinster or Toulouse standing in their way.

It means that the route to Champions Cup rugby will likely have to come through the Premiership. Usually, Rob Baxter’s men would sail into the competition but their form continues to disappoint domestically. Their 62-19 hammering by Leicester was particularly poor, even accounting for Olly Woodburn’s red card, and it leaves Exeter with some work to do over the next two league games.

A bonus-point victory over Bristol would make sure of their place in next year’s tournament but a defeat, combined with Gloucester and Bath winning, would make things very interesting going into the regular season finale. There, the Chiefs take on play-off challenging London Irish, which is not the easiest clash to end on when your confidence is low.

Harlequins’ Big Summer Kick-Off

Quins are fortunate to have England’s national stadium on their doorstep, which gives them greater commercial opportunities, but you have to commend their marketing ambition. They lead the way in the Premiership in terms of trying to grow their fan base, as well as bringing more interest to the sport as a whole.

Following on from the ‘Big Game’ series, which has had 14 editions so far and usually packs out Twickenham around Christmas time, they have set up their ‘Big Summer Kick-Off’. Its inaugural match took place in 2022, where a creditable 47,421 attended the clash with Gloucester, and they will hope to better that on Saturday.

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Bath