Predicted British & Irish Lions XV v Argentina: ‘Bare stocks’ leaves Andy Farrell with ‘no choice’ as double Smith axis looks likely
How we think the British and Irish Lions could line up against Argentina in Dublin.
Ahead of the first British and Irish Lions’ match of the year, we take a shot at predicting Andy Farrell’s first matchday squad to face Argentina.
The Lions tackle Los Pumas for the first time in 20 years as the famous touring team at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Friday evening before they depart to Australia.
Ahead of the clash, the entire squad have continued their preparations in Dublin after a training camp in Portugal, with Leinster, Bath and Leicester Tigers players joining the team after the United Rugby Championship and Premiership Finals.
The 15 players joining the squad has resulted in the release of England duo Jamie George and Asher Opoku-Fordjour, and while Farrell has the entire squad minus Blair Kinghorn, it is unlikely that he will throw too many of the Premiership and URC finalists into the mix.
With that in mind, we take a stab at predicting the British and Irish Lions team to face the Pumas.
15 Marcus Smith
Many pundits have either Hugo Keenan or Blair Kinghorn in the starting number 15 jumper for the test series against Australia, but Marcus Smith is very much a dark horse for the position.
The exciting England back may well be used as an impact player later down the line, but we are predicting that he will get the first opportunity to stamp down a marker for the number 15 jersey.
Keenan missed the URC Final for Leinster through injury, and while he is expected to be back soon, he hasn’t been in training with the squad while Smith has. Elliot Daly could also fill the role, but there is another role for him against Argentina.
Other versatile backs in the squad could fill the role, but Smith looks an easy decision at full-back for this week.
14 Tommy Freeman
There is a thought that Tommy Freeman’s best position is in the centres, but he starred for both club and country this season on the wing which earned him a spot in the squad, so that’s surely where he will make his Lions debut.
On recent form, he would likely get the nod over Mack Hansen, but that selection is further complicated by the fact that the Ireland and Connacht star has not played since mid-April. Hansen would also be an option at full-back and if he did not play this weekend, he may only play again Down Under.
Still, Freeman looks to not only be a safe bet but a deserved selection on the wing.
13 Elliot Daly
With Garry Ringrose returning from injury in the URC Final, we’d expect that the Lions coaching team would not risk him against Argentina, particularly after he went the distance against the Bulls.
There is also some doubt around Huw Jones’ fitness, which leads us to predict that Elliot Daly will fill the midfield position. Daly was a surprise selection in the squad for many, but this kind of situation is precisely why Farrell has included him with his ability to plug gaps in the squad and press for selection in multiple positions.
12 Sione Tuipulotu
The Scotland star is desperate for minutes after an injury-interrupted season, and this clash against Los Pumas provides the perfect opportunity for Sione Tuipulotu to get a taste of Test rugby again.
He is in a straight shootout with Bundee Aki for a starting role, and while he could play 12 or 13, he is more comfortable in the former. Aki may well provide cover on the bench if that role is not filled by a player like Jones, who is returning from injury.
Tuipulotu is bound to play a big role for the Lions on the tour and could be the ideal match for him to get back to that Test level.
11 Duhan van der Merwe
One of the positions that Farrell is spoilt for choice, even when removing the Premiership and URC finalists. James Lowe joins the camp but also played a full game against the Bulls which will likely rule him out, while Hansen is more than capable of playing on the left wing, as is Freeman.
However, Duhan van der Merwe is another player who needs some game time after missing Edinburgh’s quarter-final of the URC.
It will be interesting to see how Van der Merwe would fit into Farrell’s style of play, particularly if the Lions boss instils similar tactics to Ireland.
10 Fin Smith
After guiding Bath to their first Premiership title after 29 years of hurt, Finn Russell is bound to miss the match against Argentina, and with Marcus Smith possibly playing full-back, Fin Smith looks the straightforward call at fly-half this week.
Having trained with the squad in Portugal, the two Smiths will be more clued-up with the tactics and feel of the Lions’ plans with Russell set to play catch-up. Still, the Scot looks to be the front-runner for the starting role against the Wallabies.
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9 Alex Mitchell
Jamison Gibson-Park was a late withdrawal from the Leinster starting XV for the final against the Bulls, but much like the fly-half selection, Farrell is likely to go with a number nine that has been training full-time with the squad. That leaves him with two choices: Alex Mitchell and Tomos Williams.
The duo provide a healthy headache as the Lions coaching team have a choice of a settled combination of Northampton and England’s Mitchell and Smith or the untried pairing of Williams and a Smith.
We predict that he will go with the settled combo with the option to change things up in the second half. The rest of the backline has no combinations at Test or club level, but the Northampton pairing gives some form of a settled pairing.
8 Ben Earl
Jack Conan captained Leinster to URC success at the weekend and will surely miss the match against Argentina. His absence means that Ben Earl looks to be the frontrunner for the number eight jersey.
The back-rowers are very versatile, but Earl has packed down at the back of the scrum regularly for England. There is another option in Henry Pollock, but we believe he is primed for an impact role against the Pumas’ pack.
7 Jac Morgan
One of only two Welshmen in the British and Irish Lions squad, Jac Morgan could well be a starter against the Wallabies in July.
He is likely to get the nod in the starting XV against Argentina ahead of the rising star Pollock, while Josh van der Flier was one of the 12 Leinstermen only joining the squad this week.
6 Tom Curry
Argentina are a fiercely competitive team at lineout time and Tom Curry has been used as a jumping option for England this season. Ollie Chessum is bound to be an option on the side of the scrum for the Lions, but this week we predict it will be Curry as the coaching team tests how the team will fare with effectively three openside flankers in the run-on team.
If things go pear-shaped at the set-piece, it would not be surprising to see Tadhg Beirne shift from the second row.
5 Tadhg Beirne
On the topic of Beirne, he looks primed for a starting role and we predict it will come in the second row. He has been in stunning form for Ireland and Munster this season.
His hopes of featuring against Argentina are aided by the late arrivals of Joe McCarthy, Chessum and James Ryan, leaving the coaching team with three locks to choose from: Beirne, Maro Itoje and Scott Cummings.
4 Maro Itoje (c)
Frankly, it would be a shock if Itoje was not selected in the starting XV against Argentina after being named as the captain of the touring squad.
As mentioned above, only three locks have been training with the team in Portugal and surely paving the way for the captain to lead the side against the Pumas in what could be his 100th Test cap.
3 Finlay Bealham
The Lions’ tighthead stocks are rather bare for the clash against Argentina. While John Dalziel has attempted to ease concerns around the fitness of Tadhg Furlong, the prop stocks were further hammered by Zander Fagerson’s withdrawal.
Fagerson’s replacement, Bealham, is now primed to be the starting number three against Los Pumas, earning his debut for the touring team.
Frankly, there is no choice, it’s either Bealham or Will Stuart unless Furlong makes a timely return. With Stuart linking up late with the squad after coming off the bench for Bath in the Premiership final, surely Bealham starts.
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2 Luke Cowan-Dickie
It’s clear to see why George and Opoku-Fordjour trained with the squad with just one out-and-out hooker and tighthead prop fit in Portugal.
Because of that, Cowan-Dickie looks set to start against Argentina and could well be asked to play the full match.
Backing him up on the bench will be one of Ronan Kelleher or Dan Sheehan. The former played just 24 minutes of the URC final; he could be the man providing cover.
1 Ellis Genge
Another straight shootout. It’s between Ellis Genge and Pierre Schoeman for the starting role with the other bound to feature on the bench. Andrew Porter put in a 74-minute shift for Leinster at the weekend and is unlikely to get the nod against Los Pumas.
There is not much between the two looseheads, but Edinburgh have listed Schoeman as an option in all three front-row positions this season, making him an ideal replacement if the Lions attempt to save those who featured in the domestic finals.
Replacements
We have already touched on many of the replacement roles above.
The main decision will likely be with the replacement tighthead. Will Furlong be fit? Does Will Stuart get the nod despite featuring in the Prem final? It is one of the toughest calls that will come down to fitness. Luckily some of Argentina’s frontline props have not been selected by Pumas boss Felipe Contepomi.
Cummings is bound to feature in some shape or form and the same applies to Pollock. The backline replacements could well be Williams, Aki, and Hansen if they aren’t starting.
Our predicted bench (16-23): Ronan Kelleher, Pierre Schoeman, Tadhg Furlong/Will Stuart, Scott Cummings, Henry Pollock, Tomos Williams, Bundee Aki, Mack Hansen
