Opinion: What has led to Exeter Chiefs’ downfall as Rob Baxter’s charges hit rock-bottom
Exeter have lost their first five Premiership games of the season.
‘What on earth is going on at Sandy Park?’ was how I opened my section on Exeter Chiefs in my Premiership power rankings, but it is even more poignant now.
The Chiefs fell to their fifth successive defeat this weekend, but it came against a Newcastle Falcons side that hadn’t won since March 2023 – 19 months ago. The manner of the defeat was also the worst yet, as they looked comfortably second-best in almost every facet of the game.
What’s even more worrying about the rapid collapse of the Chiefs is this defeat came almost exactly four years since the greatest moment in the club’s history – their Champions Cup triumph.
Yes, they are missing some key players. Henry Slade is INVALUABLE to this Exeter Chiefs side, and current skipper Dafydd Jenkins is also a huge miss both in terms of leadership but also work around the pitch; but this shouldn’t be an excuse for the crisis currently in place at Sandy Park.
Confidence is key
Exeter currently seem like a team in the doldrums, but you can kind of understand this given the way they’ve lost some of their games.
Take their opening-day defeat to Leicester Tigers as an example. They dominated much of the game against the Tigers, however, their inability to take chances came back to haunt them as Leicester snatched an 82nd-minute try to win the game. This would have undoubtedly hit the players hard, and that built into the second game.
Franklin’s Gardens has never been a happy hunting ground for Exeter anyway, but again an inability to take their chances cost them as the Saints marched to a 30-24 victory.
This again was a huge dent to their confidence, and it built into the showing against Saracens, but the less said about that the better, to be honest.
Again, this defeat would have only compounded things in the Chiefs ranks, but the biggest one would have been last weekend. Exeter again dominated the game against Bristol, and even led 32-12 with 15 minutes left to go. They finally looked to have clicked in attack, and their defence was also the best it had been this season, but that rapidly fell apart. A run of four tries in 10 minutes from Bristol took the game away from Exeter, as Bristol clinched a 40-35 win at Sandy Park.
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This defeat will undoubtedly have left scars, given the rapid implosion at what was once fortress Sandy Park, and with that looming over you a trip to the North East to face Newcastle is arguably the worst place to go.
And it proved just so, as Exeter fell to another defeat. This in itself was damning, however, they were comfortably second best in every area, and they just didn’t look like they wanted to be there.
For the Chiefs squad, you would imagine they now have a mentality of ‘everything is going wrong’, and it’s easy to see why. These defeats would all have knocked their confidence, and the way they are playing is reflecting that.
Half-back hell
Whilst confidence is key, you feel these games would easily have been won if they had better game management, and ultimately that comes down to the half-backs.
Nine is proving to be the main issue at the moment. In the Chiefs’ golden era, Exeter were blessed with top-quality scrum-halves; Nic White, Will Chudley, Stu Townsend, Jack Maunder and Sam Hidalgo-Clyne to name but a few; but they have simply failed to replace them since their respective departures (except Stu Townsend, who is still at the club.)
Sam Maunder – the current starting nine – has struggled for form since his return from injury, however, the crop underneath him aren’t able to oust him from the shirt just yet.
A big issue for this group on the whole is simply experience. Minus Townsend, all of their scrum-halves are under the age of 24 and are still fairly inexperienced at the top level, despite their exposure over the past two seasons in both Europe and the Premiership.
Exeter are CRYING out for some experience in this department, and they should be looking to dip into the market to find it. They have been linked with a sensational play to bring White back to the club, but a player like that is exactly. They need someone with experience, and ideally Test level experience, to come and take the starting nine shirt to get them clicking around the pitch; but he would then also serve as a mentor to the young crop they have at the moment.
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The same can also be said at fly-half as well, but Harvey Skinner is improving at a decent rate and again he could benefit from an experienced partner alongside him.
In the here and now, though, it could be time to make some changes to their unit. Niall Armstrong is nearing a return to fitness, and Tom Cairns has also featured well off the bench when called upon, and they will be chomping at the bit to feature in the coming weeks. Will Haydon-Wood has had some decent touches off the bench too.
Dominated up front
Exeter’s game has largely been based on solid work from the pack, but for whatever reason they are lacking some punch up front this season.
Ross Vintcent, Ethan Roots and Greg Fisilau have been their primary ball carriers in the tight to date, and have been incredibly effective in that, but they need some more assistance from those around them. Exeter’s game has largely been based on consistently breaking the gainline, but they haven’t been able to do this consistently enough to them get settled into games.
This is then having a knock-on effect on the breakdown, where Exeter have really struggled in their opening five games. Again, the likes of Roots, Vintcent and Fisilau have been leading the charge in the breakdown, but for the most part, they are losing the majority of the breakdowns and are then losing possession.
The Exeter of old were so solid in the breakdown, especially in the opposition 22, but the issues they are currently having are the reason they aren’t able to take their chances. In the defeats to Northampton and Leicester, they were turned over far too often when in the five-metre area, which simply wouldn’t have happened a few years ago.
Elsewhere, the set-piece just isn’t functioning either. The scrum – which was a mega-strength of theirs last year – has taken somewhat of a backward step this season, and they are starting to concede a lot more penalties. Likewise, the driving maul hasn’t been the weapon it used to be for Exeter it was a few seasons ago.
Their issues in the pack are costing them right now, and you feel there could be some tough conversations to be had in the coming days.
Will it turn around?
There are plenty of reasons why they are struggling in the Premiership at the moment, but there are also plenty of reasons why it could be about to end.
The aforementioned Slade and Jenkins are several players nearing a return to full fitness for the Chiefs. New recruit Tamati Tua is expected to return during the Premiership Rugby Cup block, Jacques Vermeulen is continuing his build-up to full fitness following his impressive return against Bristol.
These returners aren’t just key members of the squad, but they will all likely add some much-needed leadership to the squad. Slade, Jenkins and Vermeulen have all captained the club in competitive matches, and this will be so beneficial in turning their form around quickly. Having these key leaders back should add a calming presence they’ve not had in this early part of the season, and could rectify their scoring issues as well.
Whilst pinning EVERYTHING on injuries is unfair, the returns of these key players will be a huge boost to the squad, and could also allow Baxter to take some players out of the firing line.
Away from this, the shift to the Premiership Rugby Cup could do them the world of good. Exeter have always done well in cup competition since their promotion to the top flight, and have lifted it in its various forms on three occasions, but this time more than ever you feel they will go full gun.
Two West Country derbies against Championship opponents Cornish Pirates and Hartpury could be a great way for them to record a win, and give them some much-needed confidence ahead of the return to the Premiership against Bath.