Opinion: The ‘bigger picture’ problem with Australia’s lack of success in Super Rugby and the forgotten Wallaby knocking on the door
Reds full-back Jock Campbell has been in fine form this season.
With two rounds to go, Super Rugby, from an Australian perspective, has never been closer – but that’s not necessarily a great thing for incoming Wallabies coach Les Kiss.
By beating each other, none of Australia’s four sides, where seven points separate the fifth-placed Brumbies (29) and ninth-placed Western Force (22), will finish in the top two in Super Rugby this year, with the high-flying Hurricanes (50) and Chiefs (45) already locking up the top two spots.
While it’s possible that the Brumbies could finish as high as third, it’s likely the Blues (38) or Crusaders (32) will secure the third and final home quarter-final – especially if the Chiefs and Hurricanes, who they play in the final match of the regular season, rest players to ensure their fitness ahead of the play-offs.
That spells disaster for Australia‘s hopes of having a side reach the semi-finals, let alone the final and winning the darn thing.
Why? Well, no Australian side has ever beaten a New Zealand opponent on the Shaky Isles, including the Brumbies, who have lost four straight semi-finals across the ditch.
Bigger picture, too, Australia’s lack of success at Super Rugby over the past decade has also played out on the international stage.
Indeed, the last time an Australian Super Rugby franchise made the final was in 2014, with the Waratahs knocking out the Brumbies in the semi-finals before going on to beat the Crusaders in the final. One year later, the Wallabies, with ex-Waratahs coach Michael Cheika at the helm and leaning heavily on his NSW side, made the World Cup final.
Four years earlier, when the Wallabies made the 2011 World Cup semi-final and finished third, Robbie Deans pinned his faith on the Reds’ side, who had also won the Super Rugby title.
In 2003, when the Wallabies lost the World Cup final in extra time to England, Eddie Jones leaned heavily on the success of the Brumbies, with George Gregan and Stephen Larkham in the halves.
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It’s why Joe Schmidt and Kiss, who will take over the Wallabies at the end of July, will be desperate that at least one of Australia’s teams go on a run, because currently there’s very little separating the mediocrity that has been allowed to fester in the game for too long.
Nor can the Wallabies fall back on the view that at least Australia’s top players will spend longer together before the July Tests too, because that’s occurred regularly since 2016 – and the national team has won at 40 per cent since.
And while it is true that the Wallabies can still put out a competitive team, Schmidt’s first matchday squad will come from the same crop of players who won just five of 15 Tests in 2025.
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The Waratahs’ next generation of halves were finally given a go against the Drua – and go they did, with NSW hitting a half-century in their breakthrough win overseas.
Not only was the 50-35 win their first in Fiji, but it also snapped a 15-match losing streak abroad.
Everyone has been asking why Teddy Wilson and Jack Bowen haven’t been given more minutes in 2026, and while the question has merit, the decision to start Lawson Creighton, who is off contract, at inside centre is also paying off.
Creighton fed off Bowen, and the duo not only saw the space out wide, but they also quickly got the ball out to the underrated Triston Reilly, who freed up his back three, including Max Jorgensen.
With another do-or-die match against the Brumbies looming, the Waratahs can’t afford to retreat and go back into their shells.
After all, the Brumbies, who are used to the grind and regularly make the finals, will back themselves in an arm-wrestle.
It’s why Dan McKellar should consider leaving the backline how it is, even if that means leaving incumbent Test half-back Jake Gordon on the bench.
Forgotten Wallaby knocking on the door
He was the unfortunate man fended away by Damian Penaud at the death of a classic Test at the Stade de France in 2022, but had the Wallabies scraped home that evening, Jock Campbell might very well have added to the four Tests he earned on the end-of-year tour.
But after a few years in the Test wilderness, the 31-year-old is very much knocking on the door of an international return.
Off contract at season’s end, Campbell has been the Queensland Reds’ best in 2026.
He had one shocker against the Force last month, but he’s otherwise been brilliant.
That continued over the weekend despite the Reds once again going down to the Force.
The full-back has always been a silky runner, but his passing and kicking game have gone to a new height in 2026 – and it’s not always been easy, especially with the Reds’ lineout continually breaking down.
And if anything happens to Tom Wright this season, he could well be the next man up in the No.15 jersey despite Schmidt using Jorgensen in the role for large parts last year following the Brumby’s injury in South Africa.
Securing the full-back for another year, especially with the Reds’ midfield (Hunter Paisami and Josh Flook) heading overseas, should be a priority for Sam Cordingley and incoming coach Vern Cotter, even if Treyvon Pritchard is the future.
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It wasn’t just Bowen who starred on his return to the No.10 jersey last weekend, but the Force’s Max Burey too.
Stuck behind Ben Donaldson, Burey finally got a go after the playmaker’s little injury – and he grabbed it with both hands.
Burey bossed the Force around, put them in the right position and his decision-making, as evident by his superb chip kick for George Bridge in the lead up to Carlo Tizzano’s match-winner, was marvellously executed.
His instant impression came off the back of strong performances in the Shute Shield, where he looked a class above the rest of his cohort in the club rugby scene.
The unfortunate reality is that Burey is returning to the Waratahs – and the person who could make way as a result is Bowen, who, like Creighton, is uncontracted for 2027, but at 22 is only just starting on his journey and if coming off an injury-plagued last nine months.
The question is will both, or either, player continue to push forward in a new environment?
It’s a similar question Harry McLaughlin-Phillips should be asking himself if he leaves the Queensland Reds to join the Force in 2027.
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Australian rugby won’t ever have an issue finding youngsters out wide, but the situation is completely different in the tight-five – and it should be seen that way accordingly.
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But rarely is that the case up front.
Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou were exceptions, but most take years to develop.
Locks are generally peaking either side of 30, while if you believe Dave Rennie, Brodie Retallick, who is nearly 35, is the world’s best second-rower.
Up front, most international props aren’t 20 either.
It’s why Australian rugby has to keep as many of its tight-five forwards as they reach their late 30s.
Which brings us to Harry Johnson-Holmes.
After a few injury-plagued years, the 29-year-old is getting back to his best and his ability to play on both sides of the scrum can’t be underestimated.
Whispers are that the Force prop is weighing up a move overseas.
If he goes, the Force’s tight-five will take another huge hit, especially with locks Darcy Swain and Franco Molina already off.
Teams can’t afford to lose three regular starters in the tight-five in a World Cup year.
Christy Doran’s Australian Super Rugby Team of the Week
15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Triston Reilly, 12 Lawson Creighton, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Max Burey, 9 Teddy Wilson, 8 Vaiolini Ekuasi, 7 Carlo Tizzano, 6 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Apolisi Ranawai, 2 Ioane Moananu, 1 Harry Johnson-Holmes