Opinion: Rassie Erasmus has ‘left door open’ for Wallabies upset and why ‘genie is officially out of the bottle’ for New Zealand Rugby
The Wallabies and Springboks meet in Perth on Sunday.
New Zealand Rugby’s looming summit, where everything is quite literally on the table after a looming financial crisis, is a long time coming.
The governing body has been the master of their own demise, and they have no one but themselves to blame for their financial challenges.
As most of the world embraced globalisation, New Zealand’s rugby brass hitherto tried to batten down the hatches and think only about the All Blacks.
Initially, it worked. But market forces have caught up with New Zealand Rugby.
Players will generally always move where the money is, and it’s a matter of time before more and more leave the Shaky Isles for greener pastures.
Opening the borders between the Tasman will help, but is it too late?
Certainly it will help, but there are huge fears that the genie is officially out of the bottle and won’t be saved by a stronger Super Rugby competition, especially when the AFL and NRL continue to get bigger and bigger.
It’s why, eventually, the All Blacks will likely pick from overseas because paying several players $1 million is proving unsustainable.
New Zealand Rugby should also be acutely aware that the NRL threat isn’t going away either. If anything, it’s only picking up.
The NRL has long been gobbling up the best talent in Australian rugby well before they’re out of school, but the code’s new $5 billion deal will place even more pressure on the national unions on either side of the ditch.
It means that both unions, including New Zealand, will have to identify talent earlier and be prepared to offer bigger deals at a younger age.
Ultimately, something has to give – and it’s why allowing some of the bigger earners to go overseas will likely be what occurs in the years to come to ensure the factory of players in New Zealand rugby doesn’t slow down.
Door open for another upset
Rassie Erasmus has left the door open for the Wallabies to extend their unbeaten run to six.
The Springboks might have more depth than most, but you’re always going to invite risk into a team when you make 13 changes to your starting XV, no matter how good the replacements are.
That doesn’t mean it’s the wrong option from Erasmus. In fact, it’s the perfect time to rest some of his key players, hand opportunities for others, and build depth and experience, especially with the Test of no real consequence.
The Test does give several fringe players an opportunity to push their cases forward.
Outside centre Canan Moodie is one who will want to take the opportunity, having missed the Greatest Rivalry series.
The Springboks’ bench remains scary, with Erasmus very much picking a bomb squad to crush the Wallabies in the second half.
Nonetheless, given the wholesale changes from the side that beat the All Blacks, the building Wallabies should be looking to push the Springboks all the way.
Lomax experiment should end
If Zac Lomax has ambitions to play for the Wallabies, he should be asking his coaches to end his experiment at outside centre.
While the Force are light on options in the midfield, they’re not helping Lomax’s case to play for the Wallabies by playing him in the No.13 jersey – the spot widely regarded as the toughest defensively in rugby. Even Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii is still finding his feet defensively as an outside centre despite the love-bombing he received from Jesse Kriel this week.
The code-hopper’s biggest attacking weapon is in the air and finishing tries. It’s how Lomax made his name and it’s still where he can make his biggest impact.
And even though Lomax might have been the most threatening Force player in the air during their big 40-12 over the Brumbies, where he got the ball wasn’t nearly as effective as it was when he towered over others on the wing during the regular Super Rugby season.
Plus, new Wallabies coach Les Kiss has already shown his willingness to back the nation’s specialist centres, giving several opportunities to Japan-bound Hunter Paisami and his former Reds teammate Isaac Henry.
New ‘Tah outshines Lynagh, but does it mean anything?
For the second straight year, Max Burey looks a class above the rest of the pack in Super Rugby AUS.
So outstanding was the 27-year-old last year in the rapid-fire three-round, Australian-only tournament that Dan McKellar lured him home from the Force for the Waratahs for the 2027 season.
Now, Burey is doing it again.
The playmaker’s kicking game was hugely impressive during the Waratahs’ 47-19 win over the Reds in Roma, with the fly-half dropping balls on his left foot and then peeling off 50-22s with his right. He also regularly took the ball at pace and flat when he received it from Teddy Wilson.
On the surface, he clearly outplayed fit-again Wallaby Tom Lynagh, who had some neat touches but his kicking game left a bit to be desired.
The question is whether Burey would be as effective against a stronger defensive line?
Lynagh’s game has been shown to stand up, but it’s unclear whether Burey would be as effective at this point despite some promising matches during his stop-start Super Rugby career.
Nonetheless, both players should go on the Australia A tour of the USA.
As should Waratahs half-back Teddy Wilson, who was once again hugely impressive and surely knocking on the door for a Test call-up.
Waratahs centres George Poolman and Otto Serfontein also showed more than enough to give incoming head coach Michael Cheika something to think about over the summer once he returns to Super Rugby from the NRL.
Beale a bargain
He might be a few months away from turning 38, but Kurtley Beale once again showed his qualities during the Force’s big win over the Brumbies.
The veteran Wallaby returned to the No.10 jersey for the first time this year and didn’t miss a beat. He directed the Force around, ran the ball to the line, put players into space and landed several goals from out wide.
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Importantly, too, he looked fit and sharp.
It’s no surprise that some parties are coming in late to try and lure the 95-Test veteran away from Perth.
Meanwhile, former Wallabies flyer Sefa Naivalu delivered an eye-catching display on his return to a Super Rugby franchise.
The former Wallabies winger ran over Sid Harvey and showed he’s got more than enough to offer one of Australia’s Super Rugby sides if they want to try and pick him up for the 2027 season.